Luke Gromen

Founder & President, Forest for the Trees (FFTT). Author of "The Mr. X Interviews, Volumes I & II.” I never solicit via DM's. RT not endorsements.

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

The signals lined up before — they’re lining up again.

Here’s what we forecasted, and what happened next.

Get “What we said and how it played out”, Vol. II here. 👉 https://t.co/ZYFQ3xCla4

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

@dmunjal @kimbordeaux There wasn't $1T in repayable debt when that happened, b/c tech was FCF positive and self funding.

Also, tech was not 90% of GDP growth past two years.

Also, US was running fiscal surpluses back then, now 6% deficit in the midst of a bubble.

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

RE: Chinese low-cost, open source AI models, below is what happened to US manufacturing employment after "low-cost, open source Chinese labor" was used by US corporations after China went into the WTO.

There are also 2nd & 3rd derivative implications to consider.

Let's watch.

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

@ShanuMathew93 seems like there was a conversation/meeting. what is the quid pro quo in your view?

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

@ajakubovicz @News_Bored That’s included in US and China #’s

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

@RonStoeferle Oh goodness! Get well soon!

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

@_Billdozer_ @MacroVoices @ErikSTownsend agree

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

Thanks for having me on @MacroVoices again, @ErikSTownsend - it was great catching up.

[MacroVoices Podcast @MacroVoices]

MacroVoices @ErikSTownsend & @PatrickCeresna welcome, @LukeGromen. They discuss how the Strait of Hormuz remained closed for months, why crude oil prices did not respond as expected, and what may happen as the conflict re-escalates. They also cover precious metals, inflation, monetary policy, and other major macroeconomic developments. https://t.co/sDrjNOgPvt

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

@TMTLongShort only being able to go to war when the markets are closed is a sign of weakness, not strength, IMO.

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

@TMTLongShort He effectively said we're moving away from the post-71 USD system 4 weeks ago in his "Hamiltonian economics" speech & WSJ op ed.

That's the right, wise move.

Let's see if we stick w/it or get further trapped in Iran. Iraq war was a disaster for US v. China; Iran will be too.

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

@kevinnrcc @TMTLongShort Fair.

Corollary: This is why US corporations will vote with China when push comes to shove, not w/the US, at least until US makes it worth their while, as corporations have had more power than US voters & govt for a long time now...leading back to our quandary:

What is "smart"?

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

"As a nation we have to make the best possible choices at any given time based on the information we have and then judge the aggregate of those choices over the course of a generation."

Agree. The problem is that as a nation, that judgement has been reduced to "what makes the 0.1% richer this quarter?", & if a bunch of flyover country boys have to die as a result, oh well.

Given our leaders' track record of the past 40 years (squandering an insurmountable lead), I would argue we have no one in power that is qualified to make that judgement...

...while those that ARE qualified to make that decision are not in power and would be killed like Charlie Kirk well before they were ever allowed near power that would allow them to make such a choice.

Same as it ever was, I guess. 🤷‍♂️

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

@TheRassss @RushDoshi That's gonna be a problem given that we need China's industrial base for that

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

Come for the Trump impression, stay for a fun macro conversation between @competentinv and me.

Thanks for having me back on, Tom!

[Tom Bodrovics @competentinv]

Check out @LukeGromen 's latest Trump impression, only on the @competentinv podcast all about China's strategies against the US, the fed's options on inflation, gold trading changes and reshoring feasibility.

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

@isaacstonefish ADDENDUM: https://t.co/Epv2HScWzh

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

I stand corrected (sort of): The 2011 ones were SunTech; the new ones (SEG-440) are actually US-made (in TX) with Indonesian solar cells (likely sourced from China, per a friend in the solar biz.)

Also got a SigEnergy Li-Ion battery array & bidirectional charger (both China made) for my US-made EV (which gives me option of using my EV as more battery backup for my house.)

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

@isaacstonefish This isn't true in solar panels. I bought Chinese solar panels in 2011 (only ones available)

Just replaced them with new Chinese solar panels in 2026.

They were a fraction of the cost they were in 2011 & 30-50% better.

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

@Bogachan_1971 US was trapped between higher oil prices that help it and the UST market, which higher oil prices hurt.

SPR releases in 2022 could be seen as equivalent to US bailing out/calming UST market in summer 2022.

[Ankit Madhwani @Tathastoo]

Settle the surplus in neutral reserve asset
173 T is approx 23 Bn+ on a monthly surplus of approx 100Bn
23%
@LukeGromen @gave_vincent @thevikassehgal

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

I stand corrected (sort of): The 2011 ones were SunTech; the new ones (SEG-440) are actually US-made (in TX) with Indonesian solar cells (likely sourced from China, per a friend in the solar biz.)

Also got a SigEnergy Li-Ion battery array & bidirectional charger (both China made) for my US-made EV (which gives me option of using my EV as more battery backup for my house.)

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

@DavidLe76335983 is this repeating "China invented gunpowder but used it to make fireworks"?