Tom Bodrovics

Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. We bring you deep conversations with the world's top investors.

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[Tom Bodrovics @competentinv]

For anyone having issues with Spotify, we changed the branding of the show and you have to follow The Competent Investor.
https://t.co/CjhTc537Rs

[Tom Bodrovics @competentinv]

All 4 market risks present at once 😳😳

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

🚨 We may be looking at the rarest market setup in 50 years.

The S&P 500's four historic drawdowns since 1972:
– 1973 Inflation: -43%
– 1987 Liquidity: -30%
– 2000 Tech: -47%
– 2008 Credit: -55%

Each one was driven by ONE dominant risk.

Right now, all four are present at the same time.

1. INFLATION
A commodity supercycle. Energy, metals, agriculture all in multi-year base breakouts. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge has been above 2% for 18 of the last 24 months.

2. LIQUIDITY
The largest equity supply shock since 2000. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic raising ~$275B combined. Google flipping from $60B/year buybacks to $80B net issuance. Over $1 trillion of IPO and lockup supply hitting the Russell 3000 in 2026.

3. TECH
Semiconductors trading 73% above their 200-day moving average – the largest stretch since March 2000. Climax run signals across the AI complex. Micron, Palantir, SMCI, the SOX index, all showing the textbook O'Neil sell pattern.

4. CREDIT
Apollo, KKR, BlackRock, Blue Owl, Cliffwater, Partners Group – all gating redemptions on their evergreen funds in the last 90 days. The private credit machine is freezing in real time.

Never in 50 years have all four risks been simultaneously present.

But here's the part nobody talks about

While the AI Big 10 has gone vertical, quality stocks have been left for dead.

– Berkshire Hathaway: trailing the S&P 500 by hundreds of basis points
– Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Pepsi: trading at multi-year relative lows
– HEICO, Union Pacific, MSCI: making boring new highs while everyone watches Nvidia
– Healthcare vs. S&P 500: 25-year relative low

The last time this happened?

December 1999. Barron's ran a cover titled "What's Wrong, Warren?" – mocking Buffett for being a dinosaur, for missing the internet, for refusing to pay for growth at any price.

Berkshire was down 19% in 1999 while the Nasdaq was up 85%.

What followed:
– Berkshire +29% over the next 24 months
– Nasdaq -78% over the next 30 months

The setup today

Four historic risks stacked simultaneously, while the boring, durable, cash-flowing businesses that always survive these regimes have been treated like dead money for years.

The math doesn't get more asymmetric than this.

Quality stocks aren't out of style.

They're being orphaned.

That's when generational positions are built.

The boring stuff hasn't worked for a long time.

History suggests that's exactly the moment it starts to.

[Tom Bodrovics @competentinv]

With tech stocks overvalued, Francis @themarketsniper advises caution. The upcoming SpaceX IPO is set to expose the vulnerabilities in passive investing strategies. #AIBubble #Investing

[Tom Bodrovics @competentinv]

@themarketsniper Full Video: https://t.co/2i6WwKTDDF

[Tom Bodrovics @competentinv]

The Market Sniper @themarketsniper predicts a 50% collapse of the Korean won against the US dollar. This could trigger a high-tech #AsianContagion. Prepare for volatility ahead. #AIBubble

[Tom Bodrovics @competentinv]

@ericreasons @LynAldenContact @LukeGromen @adamtaggart @LawrenceLepard @heresyfinancial @felixprehn @QTRResearch @DowdEdward @DoombergT @baldguymoney @Oliver_MSA @GeorgeGammon That’s a very distinguished list Eric. Grateful to be a part of it🙏

[Tom Bodrovics @competentinv]

@JimSuncomm1 They're also selling big chunks of their holdings as well lately

[Tom Bodrovics @competentinv]

The question is: why is everyone raising liquidity at this time and is this a planned exit before the markets get torched?

[litquidity @litcapital]

Google is raising $80 billion of equity a week before SpaceX is trying to raise $75 billion a few months before Anthropic and OpenAI are trying to raise $100 billion from investors and you’re laughing???

This is a cataclysmic exit liquidity avalanche

[Tom Bodrovics @competentinv]

@honeybadger_t Spotify is a difficult system to operate in. It's not the same as youtube or other platforms where your subscription stays the same

[Tom Bodrovics @competentinv]

For anyone having issues with Spotify, we changed the branding of the show and you have to follow The Competent Investor.
https://t.co/CjhTc537Rs

[Peak Financial Investing @PeakFinInv]

@LukeGromen put together this great chart that shows how PPI always leads CPI. If this continues, we can expect a major uptick in inflation within the next several months.

Full report: https://t.co/4E3ZfMkW6C

[Josh Young @JoshYoung]

Remember this? Coming soon?

[Peak Financial Investing @PeakFinInv]

This chart of margin debt is insane. The recent spike to 5.3% of GDP is mind-boggling and puts the dot-com bubble to shame. If we get a reversion in the market, which is historically normal, forced liquidations will cause people to entire positions on a scale we've never seen before.

Full report: https://t.co/YvcNtfzTj3

[Josh Young @JoshYoung]

Exxon is saying that oil prices will rise to $150 to $160 in coming weeks

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Japanese crude oil inventory chart is one of the wildest through the Hormuz crisis thus far.

[Tom Bodrovics @competentinv]

@MVGosnoldFarmer @KingKong9888 Never underestimate their ability to kick the can down the road

[Tom Bodrovics @competentinv]

@ButteMTMc @KingKong9888 Very appreciated for letting me know MN. We updated the name of the channel and spotify has an issue picking it back up. Try searching for competent investor as that could be part of the issue.

[Tom Bodrovics @competentinv]

@DJBLLSCCW @KingKong9888 🎯

[Tom Bodrovics @competentinv]

@kevinmuir warns that the upcoming #SpaceX #IPO may signal a peak in market enthusiasm. He likens it to historic highs like the AOL-Time Warner merger. Are we witnessing the top of the market? Full Video: https://t.co/gqepwEZUET