Jerry Donabedian

Fantasy industry vet / Microinfluencing rook.

NFL-only — Best Ball, Dynasty, Redraft.

Writer/Editor/Projector (seen @rotowire).

Fan of: Ravens, Club León.

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

Went through each position and compared ESPN default ranks against four other ADP/ranking measures to find the best values on ESPN.

The top values aren’t as WR-dominated in past years.

Also see a ton at RB now. And some decent QB prices. And cheap Bowers/Loveland at TE.

Overall, the rankings are still kind of chaotic and borderline outdated, so rooms that roughly follow these ESPN default rankings will be highly exploitable with some frankly ugly teams.

Easy enough to not be one of those ugly teams…

[John McKechnie @johns_tailgate]

Wrote about team implied totals and average O/Us and how we can use those to target certain offenses/defenses in best ball. Article up now on @RotoWire

🐏Also took a little tangent on what I think is the best way to get exposure to the Rams offense this year

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

Project Kicker (article coming Thursday on @rotowire)

Streaming results from my own Yahoo teams in 2023-25 suggest my estimate of 9 fantasy points per week is pretty accurate for streaming expectation. Here’s how my kickers scored:

2023: 8.6 FP/gm
2024: 9.7 FP/gm
2025: 8.8/gm

Dan Bailey averaged 10.4 or 10.5 FP/gm each of the last three years, so he’s been worth about 1.5 points per week more than my streaming.

I do project some regression to the mean even after three incredible seasons, but even at 10 FP/gm, Aubrey is a full point per week advantage over what sharp streamers are likely to get.

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

Trying to figure out what Brandon Aubrey is worth in terms of fantasy points when compared to an effective streaming approach.

Let’s run some numbers…

We’ll look at 2025 kicker scoring on teams that were favored in games with a O/U of 48+, removing the teams (DAL, HOU, LAC) whose kickers were rostered all year.

The kickers in those spots (55 instances) averaged 8.44 points.

And it goes up to 8.86 (48 games) if we don’t include Buffalo kickers.

I think 9 fantasy points per game (yahoo standard) is a reasonable expectation for streaming if you do it well.

Brandon Aubrey has averaged 10.4, 10.5, 10.4 in his three seasons.

IMO, that 1.5-point gap makes him a top 100 pick in standard scoring and not far from top 100 in full PPR.

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

Salvation

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

Believe @Ihartitz has the D/ST strategy guide coming later this week, and then I’ll still do the weekly article every Tuesday.

In my drafts I’m targeting the Chargers, Jags, Steelers, in that order. Can usually get one at the very end. Or even on waivers afterwards in some leagues.

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

Messed around with the buckets a lot FWIW and this was about the most restrictive it can be and still have a decent sample.

Other buckets produced results closer to 8.2 or 8.3 fantasy points per game, FWIW.

Goal here isn’t to exaggerate the numbers. If anything, wanna do the opposite and assume people stream pretty effectively.

I would expect my personal streaming to average closer to 9.5 FP, fwiw, but not everyone gets to do this for a living.

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

Trying to figure out what Brandon Aubrey is worth in terms of fantasy points when compared to an effective streaming approach.

Let’s run some numbers…

We’ll look at 2025 kicker scoring on teams that were favored in games with a O/U of 48+, removing the teams (DAL, HOU, LAC) whose kickers were rostered all year.

The kickers in those spots (55 instances) averaged 8.44 points.

And it goes up to 8.86 (48 games) if we don’t include Buffalo kickers.

I think 9 fantasy points per game (yahoo standard) is a reasonable expectation for streaming if you do it well.

Brandon Aubrey has averaged 10.4, 10.5, 10.4 in his three seasons.

IMO, that 1.5-point gap makes him a top 100 pick in standard scoring and not far from top 100 in full PPR.

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

Week 2 preseason fantasy recap FREE on @RotoWire

Watched the first half of every game, and looked through snap counts, beat writer tweets and box scores, focusing on Kaelon Black, Mike Washington, Tyrone Tracy and much much more

Full breakdown:

https://t.co/roHiFnw5Aq

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

Preseason Week 2 recap is up on @RotoWire, complete with fantasy winners and losers (FREE - link below in thread)

Still like Gadsden and Sarratt for dynasty, but there’s just not much cause for September optimism.

Plus, my thoughts on Kaelon Black, Mike Washington, De’Zhaun Stribling and numerous other rookies competing for early roles.

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

@DevyEusuf Appreciate the shoutout!

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

@JakobSanderson I think you earn your little globe here

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

@DevyEusuf I don’t think he/they have anything against early declares. I think they’re just too arrogant to consider that sort of info and thus get too easily wowed by stuff like strong tape from 23 year old seniors

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

@JustinMacmahan @BeerLeagueSelke The process of doing projections is way more helpful than the actual projections for season long. Still need to rank the guys, but much easier to do that well if you’ve already put in a ton of research and effort on projections.

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

Trevor Etienne shaping up as a great 20th round pick in best ball.

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

@DevyEusuf Didn’t expect that either but do remember he just got thrown in wherever there was nobody else. Think now he at least gets a chance to focus on a role that suits him and could be ok

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

NFL NextGen tracks average depth from the line of scrimmage at the snaps, and it's surprising how much it lines up with what you'd expect, if that makes sense?

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

Trey Lance should be the starting QB for the Cleveland Browns this year. He's not, but he should be.

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

@YZR_Fantasy @RyanJ_Heath By putting up 8-105-1 in his NFL debut Week 18

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

Watching 49ers-Chargers.

Great start to the game for Kaelon Black

1st down - sneaks through crease for 5 yards
2nd down - picks up blitzer, Purdy completion
3rd down- converts 3rd&1

Don't think he's good, but avoiding mistakes can go a long way against weak RB2 competition

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

Kincaid not actually cheap, just me looking at seven different spreadsheets.

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

Comparing default ranks on Yahoo against an average of 4 other ADP/rank measures.

Bucky Irving stands out as the relative value.

But also like that 10/11 spot has a shot at Jeanty in round 2; won’t really see that in best ball.

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

@JBFantasySports @SiriusXMFantasy Thanks Joe! Did the same comparison for Yahoo too. They’ve since updated their default ranks; here’s a quick look at RB with everything updated.

Much sharper ranks than ESPN obviously, but still some interesting stuff, especially Bucky.

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

Last and least, the mighty TEs

Yahoo default ranks are begging us to draft Brock Bowers or Colston Loveland, or else wait until the late rounds.

Also think the Dalton Kincaid price works. He and Shakir > DJM btw

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

@vEllemenT Round 4 won’t happen in a real draft, but early third is possible. In high stakes or best ball, he never makes it out of Round 2.

[Jerry Donabedian @Lurn2Reed]

Went through each position and compared ESPN default ranks against four other ADP/ranking measures to find the best values on ESPN.

The top values aren’t as WR-dominated in past years.

Also see a ton at RB now. And some decent QB prices. And cheap Bowers/Loveland at TE.

Overall, the rankings are still kind of chaotic and borderline outdated, so rooms that roughly follow these ESPN default rankings will be highly exploitable with some frankly ugly teams.

Easy enough to not be one of those ugly teams…