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The pullback over the past few days was absorbed almost exactly as expected.
While the market continues to grind higher, today's move showed a clear acceleration.
At this point, a move back toward 900 on the index doesn't seem like a major challenge.
The main narratives remain 1st-gen gloves and thousand guns.
One thing worth noting is that collections without souvenir versions have started to explode today, while the only sector still went down is Dopplers.
My view hasn't changed: anyone telling you to buy knives at the bottom either lacks understanding of the market or simply doesn't have your best interests in mind.
Meanwhile, our VIP group's thousand gun positions are now up around 50%.
For those carrying heavier positions, don't be afraid to reduce exposure once you've reached your target profit. Protecting gains is just as important as finding entries.
If you're unsure how to manage your positions, feel free to check out the Discord link on my profile and join the VIP group.
The pullback over the past few days was absorbed almost exactly as expected.
While the market continues to grind higher, today's move showed a clear acceleration.
At this point, a move back toward 900 on the index doesn't seem like a major challenge.
The main narratives remain 1st-gen gloves and thousand guns.
One thing worth noting is that collections without souvenir versions have started to explode today, while the only sector still went down is Dopplers.
My view hasn't changed: anyone telling you to buy knives at the bottom either lacks understanding of the market or simply doesn't have your best interests in mind.
Meanwhile, our VIP group's thousand gun positions are now up around 50%.
For those carrying heavier positions, don't be afraid to reduce exposure once you've reached your target profit. Protecting gains is just as important as finding entries.
If you're unsure how to manage your positions, feel free to check out the Discord link on my profile and join the VIP group.
There’s no doubt that WindKing has had a huge impact on sentiment.
But lately, the community has started to over-glorify him a bit.
Objectively speaking, if one person alone could reverse an entire market, some of his older members wouldn’t still be down 20–30% today.
What most people overlook is the amount of silent capital that entered near the lows — both from large existing holders and from fresh money coming in from outside the market.
Blind faith tends to become very expensive for the people who follow it.
Today’s selling pressure was completely absorbed, and the market even managed to close slightly higher.
Tomorrow is likely the final major wave of profit-taking from the recent bottom.
At the same time, the Major officially begins.
And don’t forget: throughout this rally, a significant amount of supply came from items that were previously locked for 30 days and later returned to the market.
Despite that additional supply, the market has continued to grind higher.
Onward and upward. 📈
Today’s selling pressure was completely absorbed, and the market even managed to close slightly higher.
Tomorrow is likely the final major wave of profit-taking from the recent bottom.
At the same time, the Major officially begins.
And don’t forget: throughout this rally, a significant amount of supply came from items that were previously locked for 30 days and later returned to the market.
Despite that additional supply, the market has continued to grind higher.
Onward and upward. 📈
Binance now offers more stock trading pairs than token trading pairs.
That’s a massive signal for the altcoin market.
When one of the largest crypto platforms is putting more focus on equities than new tokens, it becomes harder and harder to justify the long-term bullish case for most alts.
At some point, the only people left trading many of them may be those chasing life-changing gains and willing to accept casino-level risk.
This was the price difference between game and BUFF stickers yesterday.
Personally, I don’t think Valve will be able to maintain sticker sales for long through natural market demand alone.
At the current pricing, a discount feels far more likely than not.
This is today's hourly chart and this week's weekly chart.
Pretty much in line with expectations so far.
Today's pullback was absorbed well, and there was a noticeable injection of buying pressure later in the day that helped keep the weekly candle green.
Many of the smaller items that experienced rapid runs pulled back quite noticeably, while 1st-gen gloves continue to show clear signs of capital inflows.
For now, the rotation seems to be continuing rather than leaving the market altogether.
The market handled the past two days of pullback surprisingly well.
That said, the real test begins tomorrow and the day after, as we enter the first wave of profit-taking from positions opened 7 days ago.
I'm still optimistic.
And anyone paying attention should already notice that at the same index level, item performance has diverged massively.
1st-gen gloves and Glove Cases are generally up 25–40% from the lows.
Meanwhile, some of the smaller items accumulated by WindKing and other operators — such as Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden, Desert Eagle | Heat Treated, and M4A4 | Dragon King — have posted gains of 60–120% from the bottom.
Our VIP group not only captured the full 1st-gen move, but also added aggressively into smaller items near the lows to lower cost basis. Most members are up around 30–40% on those positions as well.
I also posted on May 20th that agents were trading far below their intrinsic value and that buying just one a day was a reasonable accumulation strategy. Today, that entire sector has started to move as well.
My short-term view is that the upcoming selling pressure will likely be absorbed. During the Major, I expect the market to continue grinding higher in a slow upward consolidation.
I remain bullish on the 1st-gen sector.
As for collections, Valve's souvenir update has permanently changed the landscape. Collections with souvenir supply will likely struggle to revisit previous highs. On the other hand, collections without souvenir supply should see capital become more concentrated and may offer greater upside than before.
As for knives, my view hasn't changed. Unless you're buying for play-use, I don't see much reason to own them. Their returns will likely underperform the broader market, and in many cases you may even lose money.
Lastly, for those who have been watching from the sidelines, our VIP group will remain focused on identifying the strongest sectors, timing entries, and managing risk throughout the Major period.
If you'd like to follow our future rotations and positioning, feel free to DM me for membership details.