Lynx Vaults

Crypto • Macro • Global Markets
Watching capital flows
Explaining market moves

[Lynx Vaults @LynxVaults]

@Wealthmanager Tnx @PeterSchiff

[Lynx Vaults @LynxVaults]

@KillaXBT yes wrong: https://t.co/GMIiqVyk8O

[Wealthmanager @Wealthmanager]

The $79,000–$80,000 range is now turning into support for bitcoin:native.

This is a long opportunity with the potential to reach $90,000 in the coming days.

Right now, you go LONG, not SHORT.

[Lynx Vaults @LynxVaults]

⚡BREAKING

The US just launched a refund portal for $166,000,000,000 in tariffs the Supreme Court ruled illegal.

Over 56,000 importers can now file claims.

Refunds take 60 to 90 days. This is not an instant cash dump.

The US government is paying back money it was never allowed to take in the first place

[Lynx Vaults @LynxVaults]

@KobeissiLetter Right call, wrong half. What happens to earnings when nobody’s buying​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​?

[Lynx Vaults @LynxVaults]

⚡JUST IN

XRP flipped BNB again, reclaiming the #3 spot among non-stablecoin crypto assets with an $87 billion market cap.

These two have been trading places all year. XRP got regulatory clarity in March when the SEC and CFTC classified it as a commodity. That changed the game for institutions

[Lynx Vaults @LynxVaults]

@KobeissiLetter 20% of the world’s oil supply, stopped by two countries who both say they’re keeping the strait open

[Lynx Vaults @LynxVaults]

⚡UPDATE

Argentina’s annual inflation hit 32.6% in March. Fuel up 9%, airfare up 24%, transport up 22%. Milei blames the Iran war and asks for patience.

Context: he inherited 211% inflation. The progress is real. But an oil shock he didn’t cause is now threatening to undo it

[Lynx Vaults @LynxVaults]

@KobeissiLetter $530M in short liquidations did more for this rally than any buyer did

[Lynx Vaults @LynxVaults]

⚡JUST IN

Tether just launched its own wallet. Send Bitcoin, USDT or gold to anyone using just a username like [email protected]. No long addresses, no gas tokens.

570 million people already use Tether’s infrastructure without knowing it. Now they have a direct app

[Lynx Vaults @LynxVaults]

@KobeissiLetter When retail stops playing with 3x leverage, the next move usually isn’t sideways

[Lynx Vaults @LynxVaults]

⚡UPDATE

The Fed is injecting $40.5 billion in liquidity this month through Treasury bill purchases, elevated specifically for tax season.

Not new QE. But more dollars in the system while inflation sits at 3.3% and a war is driving oil prices.

Traders know what liquidity does to risk assets

[Lynx Vaults @LynxVaults]

⚡UPDATE

A US-sanctioned Chinese tanker turned back when the Hormuz blockade started. Then turned around again and sailed straight through anyway. Now a second sanctioned tanker is heading in.

China’s Defense Minister already warned the US not to touch their ships. The Navy let them pass.

Day one of the blockade and it’s already being tested

[Lynx Vaults @LynxVaults]

@KobeissiLetter $5 trillion on a two-week pause, with oil still above $95 and the strait still barely open

[Lynx Vaults @LynxVaults]

⚡BREAKING

US naval blockade of Iran started at 10AM ET. Peace talks collapsed. Ceasefire hanging by a thread.

Every ship near Iranian ports gets stopped.

Trump: any Iranian vessel that comes close will be “eliminated”

Oil surging, This is not a drill

[Wealthmanager @Wealthmanager]

🚨 Why I’m Shorting Crypto & Stocks until Iran Folds: The Brutal Reality of the Hormuz Chokehold. 🚨

The market is high on hopium.

Every time Trump tweets about a "deal," the markets pump.

But look at the reality: the Islamabad talks just failed, and the April 6th deadline passed without the Strait of Hormuz reopening. As long as Iran refuses to surrender, we are heading for a structural break.

The "Short" Thesis: Tech & Crypto.

I’m specifically looking at shorting crypto and high-beta tech. Why? Because they are the ultimate "sentiment" gauges. They thrive on liquidity and cheap energy. Right now, we have neither.

The Helium Death Trap: Everyone watches oil, but nobody watches helium. 30% of global supply is stuck in the Gulf.

No helium = no semiconductors. If Iran stays defiant, the "AI boom" hits a brick wall in 2-3 months when chip production lines freeze.

Crypto isn't a "Safe Haven" in a real war.

Bullish traders say Bitcoin is "digital gold." The data says otherwise.

When the Strait is closed, liquidity evaporates. People don't buy BTC when they can't afford fertilizer for their crops or fuel for their business.

High-risk assets are the first to be liquidated.

The Fertilizer Famine: 30% of the world’s fertilizer is blocked.

This isn't just a "trading dip"; it’s a global food security crisis. As inflation for basic needs (food/heating) skyrockets, the discretionary cash that pumps the crypto and tech markets will vanish.

Trump’s "Blockade" vs. Reality.
Trump is threatening a total naval interdiction.

If he follows through, volatility will go vertical. This isn't a environment for "long" positions. It’s a environment for betting against the overvalued tech companies that rely on a stable, globalized world.

The Bottom Line. I’m staying bearish. No deal = no recovery.

Until Iran surrenders or a permanent ceasefire is signed, shorting crypto stocks remains my favorite play.

Position accordingly.

[Lynx Vaults @LynxVaults]

⚡JUST IN

BlackRock just bought $600 million in Bitcoin per Arkham on-chain data. Their total holdings now sit at over $58 billion in BTC.

They kept buying through an oil crisis, a war and a market crash. That tells you everything about where institutional money thinks this is going

[Lynx Vaults @LynxVaults]

⚡UPDATE

Saudi Arabia just restored its East-West pipeline to full capacity after Iran knocked out 700,000 barrels per day last week with a drone strike.

This pipeline was built in the 1980s exactly for this scenario. 746 miles across the Arabian Peninsula, straight to the Red Sea, no Hormuz needed.

Iran tried to close every exit. Saudi Arabia just reopened one

[Lynx Vaults @LynxVaults]

⚡BREAKING

US Navy warships just crossed the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the war began. The move was not coordinated with Iran.

Iran calls it a ceasefire violation and threatens to attack the ships. Peace talks are happening in Pakistan at this exact moment.

Trump forcing the issue while negotiators are still at the table

[Lynx Vaults @LynxVaults]

⚡UPDATE

Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of the ceasefire. There’s just one problem: they can’t find all the mines they laid.

Some were never recorded. Others drifted with the current. Neither Iran nor the US has enough minesweeping capacity to clear them quickly.

187 tankers. 172 million barrels of crude. All stuck outside a strait nobody can safely open

[Lynx Vaults @LynxVaults]

⚡BREAKING

US inflation jumped from 2.4% to 3.3% in March. Biggest monthly price increase since 2022.

Gas prices up 20% in a single month. Core inflation barely moved. This is entirely an energy shock, not a broad inflation problem.

The Fed meets April 28. Rate cuts just got a lot harder to defend