Lysander Falk

📈 Global Macro Strategist | 📚 Reading beyond Finance & Econ | 🌍 US is not the only investable market |🗣️ Views are my own

[Lysander Falk @LysanderFalk]

To Iran’s marketing department. “ESG fee” would sound even better.

[Lysander Falk @LysanderFalk]

Fed members confirming one more hike

[Lysander Falk @LysanderFalk]

Let’s see if that chart goes up on Friday.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

NEW: Trump announces the Strait of Hormuz will be “fully open” soon.

[Lysander Falk @LysanderFalk]

@Credit_Junk thanks bro 🙏

[Lysander Falk @LysanderFalk]

@Credit_Junk Do you know what the reason is that only this type of oil is in contango?

[Lysander Falk @LysanderFalk]

Even after the deal announcement, markets are still pricing hiking cycles globally.

[Lysander Falk @LysanderFalk]

@kimchipump Absolutely. It's gonna be a shaky ceasefire. Strait might be open for a couple of days until hostilities start all over again. We were at this place before.

[Lysander Falk @LysanderFalk]

@alwayslearni Even if the crash started today, the people who stayed invested in equities will be better off (after the crash) than long bonds guys since May 2023.

Obviously there will be a recession one day, but the opportunity cost of going into safe haven asset 2-3 years early is too high.

[𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐇𝐲𝐩𝐞 @EffMktHype]

Pleased to find my bond book got recommended but annoyed that the docdroid links are dead. It's now on gdrive and link on my bio. At some point it'll get a 2nd Ed. and I'll maybe self-pub on Amazon but in the meantime here's the link. Enjoy, pls share.
https://t.co/ped7TfTrns

[©️redit From Ⓜ️acro to Ⓜ️icro @Credit_Junk]

I like his piece on FT and I use this only as an evidence of how powerfull is the crowded sentiment rebalancing.
The pain trade is exactly this:
"The tendency of markets to deliver the maximum amount of punishment to as many investors as possible from time to time."

[Lysander Falk @LysanderFalk]

@KING_CHARLIEIII @CollinRugg Well, there is also some personal animosity as well. During the end of Trump's 1st term, he held back aid to Ukraine and asked Zelensky for info on Hunter Biden to use in the election campaign against his father. Trump didn't appreciate the content of the phone call got leaked.

[Lysander Falk @LysanderFalk]

@CollinRugg I’d say the big trigger for Trump was Zelensky implying that the war might come to the US.

“During the war everybody has problems, even you. But you have nice ocean and don’t feel now, but you will feel it in the future”

Basically “Help us, or the war will come to the US”

[Lysander Falk @LysanderFalk]

Es ist nicht irreführend die eine Partei als Schuldenpartei darzustellen und die andere als fiskal diszipliniert?

Hoffe wir haben alle was gelernt. Btw die ÖVP hat es geschafft trotz ähnlicher Schuldenpolitik weniger Wachstum zu erwirtschaften (beides gemessen am Europa Durchschnitt) 👏.

KHG war wahrscheinlich noch einer der besten “ÖVP” Finanzminister, ohne jemals bei der ÖVP gewesen zu sein. So viel zur Wirtschaftskompetenz der ÖVP.

[Lysander Falk @LysanderFalk]

@f_wintersberger Good quote, but probably similarly difficult to predict :)

[Lysander Falk @LysanderFalk]

„Only a little bit early with the recession call“

SPY (blue), TLT (white). Being early only cost you -70%.

If you listened to your recession gurus since 2023, you already had your recession inside your personal portfolio.

[Lysander Falk @LysanderFalk]

🇩🇪 Not including a CDU/AfD scenario is basically leaving out an important tail event that is not as „impossible“ as many political experts suggest.

[Lysander Falk @LysanderFalk]

@yang_youngbin You’re spot on, my friend.