大人の作品案内所

大人向け作品の新作・セール情報を発信｜
気になる作品をジャンル別に紹介｜
18歳未満閲覧禁止🔞｜
投稿にはPR・広告を含みます

[大人の作品案内所 @MAIYARAP141]

10円は逆に信用なくなるやつwww 元値880円だよ？🤣

https://t.co/Hi3cLGjXgM

[大人の作品案内所 @MAIYARAP141]

元値880円で10円はさすがに安すぎて詐欺案件😂
https://t.co/cFTpIUwFF3

[大人の作品案内所 @MAIYARAP141]

すごいな、ビットコインのタイミングって意外と難しいよね？

[Vladic @Vladic_ETH]

The only published edge on 15-minute Bitcoin is 0.58 basis points. Polymarket charges 175 to get in

A 300x gap

Shanaev and co-authors documented the turn-of-the-candle effect in Heliyon, 2023. Bitcoin returns cluster on minutes 0, 15, 30 and 45 of every hour. Every other minute averages negative. Seven exchanges, t-stat above nine, and it survived out-of-sample.

Size of the effect: 0.58 bps per minute. 0.0058%.

Now the toll. Polymarket charges takers, the side that crosses the book, a fee of 0.07 × price × (1 − price). On a 50¢ contract that is $1.75 per 100 shares. 175 basis points.

Then the spread. 91.9% of top-of-book observations on BTC 15m sit exactly one tick wide, and you cross it.

Breakeven: 0.505 + 0.0175 = 52.25%.

You need 52.3% directional accuracy on 15-minute Bitcoin, sustained, to make nothing.

OpenMarket landed on arXiv in July. The author collected 727 million rows of synchronized Polymarket and Binance data across 54 days, then trained a walk-forward logistic model on 43 microstructure features over 559 windows.

Out-of-sample it scored AUC 0.8377. The naive prior, meaning the Polymarket order book mid, scored 0.8405.

The model lost to reading the price. Simulated trading: - 0.116 per attempted trade.

In-sample it won. The lift did not survive walk-forward.

Bailey and López de Prado ran this math back in 2014. On five years of data, more than 45 independent configurations all but guarantee an in-sample Sharpe of 1.0 with zero expectancy out-of-sample.

An agent burns through 45 variants in one evening.

@horizon_trade_x ships Monte Carlo across 1,000+ equity paths and configurable fees, spread and slippage. Those buttons exist so you kill the idea faster.

I am running BTC 15m at 175 bps and a one-tick spread. I publish the numbers whichever way they land.

Horizon affiliate. Link in the first comment.

[大人の作品案内所 @MAIYARAP141]

聖地の隠れ家発見した！いつか全部探しあげたいな

[大人の作品案内所 @MAIYARAP141]

今度はちゃんとイベントに行こうと思ってる

[大人の作品案内所 @MAIYARAP141]

推しの声優さんの活動に毎日注目してる

[大人の作品案内所 @MAIYARAP141]

推しの誕生日だから一日中浸ってる

[Pixar @Pixar]

Pixar is officially diving into the supernatural with their very first ghost movie: Ghost Market, arriving in Spring 2028! 👻 #D23

[大人の作品案内所 @MAIYARAP141]

二期告知ポスター見たらドキドキした

[FGR México @FGRMexico]

El #OIC de la #FGR garantiza la legalidad y cumplimiento normativo.

[大人の作品案内所 @MAIYARAP141]

作者の画力の伸びがすごくて泣ける

[大人の作品案内所 @MAIYARAP141]

伏線の回収がめっちゃ上手だった

[大人の作品案内所 @MAIYARAP141]

深夜に読むと感情の振れ幅おかしくなる

[SODAX @gosodax]

Your users hold assets across networks but your app only sees the ones on its own?

SODAX lets builders tap liquidity and balances across blockchain networks through one integration, no bridge stack required.

The same app, with a market sized to its users.

[大人の作品案内所 @MAIYARAP141]

円盤買ってから見てみようかな

[大人の作品案内所 @MAIYARAP141]

限定版に限らず新作を見つけるのが楽しくて仕方ない

[National Geographic @NatGeo]

Meet Kio. He's a young cub now, but does he have what it takes to become king? 👑

Follow his rise in #NatGeoLION, premiering Wednesday, August 19, at 9/8c on @NatGeoTV. Streaming on @DisneyPlus and @hulu.

[大人の作品案内所 @MAIYARAP141]

声優さんの声に惚れ込んでる

[大人の作品案内所 @MAIYARAP141]

推し活で出会った友達と久しぶりに話せてよろしければ