Finance Guy

MBA. Finance | Capital Markets | Economics | Emerging markets. Tweets not opinion of my employer.

[Finance Guy @MBAFinanceGuy]

@cullenroche If you try to ease your foot of the pedal you will have persistent inflation. If you slam the brakes you will have a recession. As Milton Friedman pointed out there is no easy cure for inflation. You can't fix inflation without increasing unemployment. https://t.co/5SsovB6WvR

[COMBATE |🇵🇷 @upholdreality]

🇳🇪 Niger at the UN:

"Ladies and Gentlemen, as I speak to you, at our northeast borders stand the proxies led by France, backed by Ukraine and 2 other countries."

"And you know full well which countries I mean."

"These proxies are armed, guided, directed, about to attack our military positions and our oil installations. But they will get what they deserve, inshallah."

"Our Sahel is at war. A war of liberation against a conspiracy aimed at its recolonization."

"What some call terrorism in our region is a cynical scheme of recolonization dressed in extremist rags."

"Niger's uranium, the gold of Mali and Burkina, lithium, gas, oil and so many other riches keep the old powers salivating."

"This perfidious destabilization of the central Sahel, led by France with Ukraine's active complicity -- documented, very documented."

"Niger's uranium lit up Europe's cities while ours stayed in darkness. This injustice has now ended. It is over."

"A people that has decided to be free cannot be recolonized, not by fear, nor by cunning, nor even by savage violence."

[Finance Guy @MBAFinanceGuy]

@MarioNawfal Its a big fat lie. They're trying to inflate away the $40Trillion debt. They need inflation to stay above the average interest on US national debt currently at 3.5%.

[Finance Guy @MBAFinanceGuy]

@its_me_mungaih @mungaikihanya This is an interesting point. Stop all the FX outflow for fuel and strengthen the shilling significantly.

[Finance Guy @MBAFinanceGuy]

@mungaikihanya Africa's time has arrived and there is nothing anyone can do about it. On the contrary, the West's time is winding up. Demographics are a huge factor.

[Finance Guy @MBAFinanceGuy]

@dipoaina1 @WilliamsRuto Africa is rightfully taking her place at the center of the world. We have everything! This century is for Africa and there is nothing our enemies can do about it.

[Finance Guy @MBAFinanceGuy]

@KobeissiLetter

[Finance Guy @MBAFinanceGuy]

@MarioNawfal This is Trump doing this to help Egypt to help you know who... https://t.co/P5Z8j1n43n

[Addis Standard @addisstandard]

Fact: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (#GERD) is entirely funded by the people of #Ethiopia through public contributions and domestic resources. It poses no threat to #Egypt’s water security.

Despite this, U.S. President Donald Trump has once again made misleading claims about the dam. During a meeting at the White House with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on 14 July, President Trump falsely stated that he thinks the “U.S. funded the dam” and described it as a threat to Egypt’s water supply.

This follows similar remarks made in June, where the President wrongly asserted the U.S. financed the dam and that it “substantially” reduces the flow of water into the Nile.

Addis Standard believes that, if left unchallenged, such repeated claims risk fueling unnecessary regional tensions. We call on the Ethiopian government to intensify its diplomatic engagement with the United States to address and correct these misleading narratives. AS

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The last time US Treasury yields were this high, total US national debt stood at just $8.9 trillion.

Today, US debt stands at $40.1 trillion. That's +$31.2 trillion more, or over 4.5 TIMES higher.

This means every 1 percentage point in the average cost of servicing the debt now translates to ~$401 billion per year in interest expense.

In 2007, the same 1 percentage point translated to just ~$89 billion.

That’s an additional ~$312 BILLION in annual interest expense for every percentage point increase in borrowing cost.

This is a vastly different situation than it was 19 years ago.

The bond market matters more now than ever.

[Finance Guy @MBAFinanceGuy]

@biancoresearch Reversion to the mean, which means the 10Y is going to 5.9%

[Finance Guy @MBAFinanceGuy]

@KobeissiLetter Happening at the worst possible time when the US is politically isolated while sitting on $40Trillion debt. Foreign buyers don't want to buy US debt anymore. Americans are about to experience a real shock to their standard of living. Many won't afford cars and houses anymore...

[Finance Guy @MBAFinanceGuy]

@amenya_nelson You underestimate the economic impact and productivity unlocked by freeing up people being grid locked in traffic. Who do you think employs the "common mwananchi"? There is a large opportunity cost that can't be quantified.

[Finance Guy @MBAFinanceGuy]

@DanChepta Chat GPT nonsense. This is the problem with using AI.

[Finance Guy @MBAFinanceGuy]

@KobeissiLetter LOL!

[Finance Guy @MBAFinanceGuy]

@DeannaAlbera @LizAnnSonders They protect the pride and patrol their territory. How could that be useless?

[Finance Guy @MBAFinanceGuy]

@lisaabramowicz1 No one wants to be left holding the bag

[Finance Guy @MBAFinanceGuy]

@kash_Bior We don't need him in Kenya. Let him invest elsewhere. Good luck!

[Finance Guy @MBAFinanceGuy]

@annmarie Baghdad Bob - Treasury market is doing just fine!

[Finance Guy @MBAFinanceGuy]

@elerianm The yield spread between US bonds and Emerging Market (EM) bonds has tightened, near multi-year lows. Broad EM bond spreads are sitting around 1.55% over US Treasuries, while higher-risk EM high-yield bonds have compressed to three-year lows below 300 basis points.

[Finance Guy @MBAFinanceGuy]

@KobeissiLetter No the bond market is smarter and the stock market hasn't figured it out yet. The bond market knows the US will print it's way out of debt. The yield spread between US bonds and Emerging Market (EM) bonds has tightened dramatically, hovering near multi-year lows.

[Finance Guy @MBAFinanceGuy]

@awealthofcs Anyone who thinks today's economy can handle the rates of the 80s and 90s does not understand a thing about interest rates. Even with 10-11% mortgages, Americans were spending 21% of their income on housing vs 35% today with 6% mortgages. If rates were 11% it would be 60% today.