Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader

Veteran Financial Trader | MSc Finance
Creator of 'The Perfect Storm Index'™
Macro • Crypto • Elliott Wave
40+ years navigating market cycles

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

Thank you to everyone following the Perfect Storm Index™ (PSI).
Behind every daily reading sits a broad range of macro, sentiment and technical indicators designed to quantify market risk, not headlines or opinions.
The goal isn't to predict the future. It's to help investors better understand probabilities and manage risk accordingly.
Thank you for being part of the journey.
#PSI #Bitcoin #Markets #Macro #Trading

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

Iran says it wont make any peace deal with the United States, not now not ever. Iran is working with Oman to split the Strait of Hormuz between the two neighbours charging all ships a fee or toll to pass the Strait. Iran says the US is not in the negotiations.
It’s not over yet!

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

If #BTC is still completing a B-wave rally before a larger decline, #MSTR could participate in that final advance.
However, if Bitcoin begins a larger impulsive decline (our anticipated C wave), MSTR is likely to amplify the downside.
Historically, Strategy has behaved like a leveraged Bitcoin proxy:
BTC +10% → MSTR has often gained considerably more.
BTC -20% → MSTR has frequently fallen much harder.
The exact relationship isn't fixed, but MSTR has consistently exhibited higher volatility than Bitcoin itself.
One thing worth remembering:
Owning MSTR isn't the same as owning Bitcoin.
You're also taking exposure to:
• Corporate leverage
• Debt refinancing
• Equity issuance
• Management execution
• Market sentiment toward #Strategy itself
When everything is positive, that leverage can significantly outperform Bitcoin.
When sentiment turns, the reverse can happen just as quickly.
If our Elliott Wave interpretation is correct, MSTR may still have one more rally left, but if Bitcoin enters its larger corrective phase, Strategy could become one of the highest-beta trades on the downside.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

This is a very interesting section of the #BTC chart within the highlighted ellipse.
At first glance, the decline appears as though it could be the start of a leading diagonal (Wave 1 lower).
However, that interpretation breaks Elliott Wave rules because the proposed third wave would be the shortest. In a motive wave, Wave 3 can never be the shortest.
That invalidates the leading diagonal interpretation and instead suggests this move is simply a corrective pullback within the existing advance.
Unless price action proves otherwise, the path of least resistance remains higher.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

This fits remarkably well with the work im doing on the Perfect Storm Index™.
If the #NASDAQ is indeed in the late stages of a monthly fifth wave, then the PSI should begin deteriorating before the market completes its top, as macro conditions (liquidity, yields, the dollar, credit, volatility and geopolitics) become progressively less supportive.
If, over the coming months, the PSI trends higher while the NASDAQ continues to make marginal new highs, that combination would be a particularly interesting warning signal.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

Perfect Storm Index™ | 6 August 2026
Today's Reading: 55/100 🟠
Risk conditions have eased from yesterday, but the market environment remains Elevated Risk rather than Risk-On.
Key drivers today:
📉 Softer US Dollar
📉 Lower Treasury yields
📉 Falling Oil prices
📉 Reduced market volatility
Offsetting factors remain:
⚠️ Restrictive real yields
⚠️ Corrective Elliott Wave structure
⚠️ Persistent geopolitical uncertainty

The Perfect Storm Index™ doesn't predict prices, it measures the environment in which markets operate.
Today's reading suggests conditions have improved modestly, but discipline remains warranted until technical and macro conditions align more decisively.
IMO Markets deal in probabilities, not certainties. The objective is to maximise reward while controlling risk.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Macro #Investing #RiskManagement #PerfectStormIndex

"The Perfect Storm Index™ measures conditions, not convictions."

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

@ItsBitcoinWorld Perhaps a little lower to go before the proposed turn around

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

#PSI is easing. #BTC is responding.The lower Perfect Storm Index™ suggests macro conditions are becoming less restrictive, supporting the current corrective recovery. My preferred scenario remains a slightly higher Wave B, with RSI potentially reaching overbought and forming Bearish Divergence before another move lower.
Meanwhile, #Oil may have one final move lower before reversing higher, a development that could once again weigh on $BTC.
The market decides. We simply manage the probabilities.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

Currently working on todays #PSI
Perfect Storm Index™
Collecting the data

DXY
Global liquidity
US 10Y yields (nominal & real)
Credit spreads
VIX
Oil
Gold
BTC dominance
Fear & Greed
Funding rates
Put/Call ratio
AAII sentiment
PMI/ISM
Inflation expectations
Macro releases
Geopolitical risk
Elliott Wave assessment

Then scoring every component
Applying the weightings.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

#Oil falling
#BTC rising
The inverse relationship is continuing to play out.
If $OIL completes its correction into the 100% (A=C) extension shown on the chart, watch closely for signs of a reversal.
A rebound in Oil could reintroduce inflationary pressure and become a headwind for $BTC and other risk assets.
As always, markets deal in probabilities, not certainties.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

@renleo1986 #BTC Halving cycle estimates Q4 but will some leeway, meaning we cannot identify more precisely at this stage.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

If A = C, #OIL could still fall towards the $71 area before reversing higher.
A deep Wave 2 correction would be entirely consistent with Elliott Wave guidelines and could coincide with oversold RSI and Hidden Bullish Divergence.
If that setup develops, it would strengthen the case for the next impulsive advance.
Markets deal in probabilities, not certainties.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

@renleo1986 That’s correct

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

@knowledgeimoney Sounds more like mere survival

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

@readyinafewdayz @NickOptimaPS 👍

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

@HereBitGo ?

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

#BTC may not be finished to the upside just yet.
A modest move higher could complete a small ABC correction within a larger Wave B.
For now, the structure still looks corrective rather than the start of a new bull trend, so I'm treating any strength as a counter trend rally until proven otherwise.
As always, probabilities over predictions. Manage risk accordingly.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

Great question.
Elliott Wave and technical analysis don't predict the news, they measure how the market is collectively responding to all available information, including geopolitical developments.
Major unexpected events can certainly invalidate a count, which is why risk management is essential. However, more often than not, those events accelerate a move that was already technically vulnerable rather than creating an entirely new trend.
Take Oil as a recent example. Despite rapidly changing geopolitical headlines, the 5-wave advance and subsequent ABC correction unfolded remarkably close to the Elliott Wave roadmap.
Charts don't eliminate uncertainty, they help us assign probabilities in an uncertain world.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

Perfect Storm Index™ | 5 August 2026
Today's Reading: 61/100 🟠
Market conditions remain elevated, with restrictive financial conditions continuing to outweigh the recent easing in energy prices.
Key drivers:
📈 Firm US Dollar
📈 Elevated Treasury yields
📉 Tight liquidity
🌍 Geopolitical uncertainty
🌊 Corrective Elliott Wave structure

The Perfect Storm Index™ doesn't predict price, it measures the environment in which risk assets are operating.
As always, there are no certainties in investing. Our objective is to identify probabilities, manage risk and preserve capital until the risk/reward profile improves.
Patience is a position.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Macro #RiskManagement #PerfectStormIndex #Investing
Methodology v2.0 | Rules-Based | Transparent | Updated Daily

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

We have already fallen around 55% from the current cycle #BTC ATH, so deep drawdowns are nothing new.
My concern is that we haven't yet seen the kind of capitulation that has historically marked major cycle lows.
If a significant macro or geopolitical shock were to emerge, further downside cannot be ruled out.
Hopefully that doesn't happen—but it's a risk worth respecting rather than ignoring.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

There is currently little evidence that #BTC has completed its correction.
Buying here could prove to be catching a falling knife if the broader downtrend resumes.
I'd rather miss the first 10% of a new bull move than the last 50% of a bear market.
PSI™: 58/100 – Elevated Risk
Patience pays.