Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader

Trading is a game of chess
Veteran Financial Trader | MSc Finance
Creator of 'The Perfect Storm Index'™
Crypto • Elliott Wave
40+ years navigating market cycles

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

#SOL’s decline has been sharp, but my preferred interpretation is an ABC correction, with an extended wave C reaching approximately 2.618 times wave A near $101.

Bullish RSI divergence and the subsequent rebound support a potential low, although confirmation is still needed.

I’m watching for five waves higher, then a corrective pullback that holds above the low. That would strengthen the case for further upside.

Any staged accumulation on my part would stay within a predefined risk limit. Step by step.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

If #BTC completed wave 1 at the September high, the current decline could be wave 2.

A deep retracement toward 61.8%–78.6% would put the area of interest around $69.1k–$64.1k, measured from the July low.

That zone could offer attractive risk/reward for a long if the structure supports a low. Bullish RSI divergence following oversold readings, together with a reversal on lower timeframes, would strengthen the case.

The exact depth and path remain uncertain. Below the July low near $57.7k, this wave 1–2 count would invalidate.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

This is a VERY exciting setup imo and one I will be watching for a future opportunity with a great risk/reward ratio for #BTC and other #Crypto with even greater volatility.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

@MirecBa74 @WickCue I believe my chart and comment clearly shows my expectations

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

Always looking for valid alternates.
I like this because its a different longer term outlook but still aligns shorter term #BTC price expectations.
As with the earlier scenario posted, if price falls as anticipated then we have great risk/reward for a long position

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

@WickCue I would look for confirmation on lower timeframes.
If you wait for longer term reversals you may miss the boat

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

@f4f_naqash @IgorTradesX I think your comment is correct in general.
As such, its more important to use the latest and most powerful Ai tools available to look at the breaking news that affects sentiment and more importantly, how it affects that sentiment!
https://t.co/BCxS70aW95 is one of those tools

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

There is never certainty!
We can only manage the risk of the scenario we choose to adopt - whether right or wrong.
For now, I’m staying flat. If BTC bounces in wave b, then drops toward $68k to complete wave B as sketched, I’d look for signs of a low. That’s where the risk/reward for a long could become attractive again.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

Its important to tie TA with fundamentals and thats where https://t.co/fTIZBH76EY comes in.
This valuable news aggregator and Ai assessment of breaking stories gives the reasons behind each move in the market.
The news of #Memecoins being used to launder @Binance hack proceeds explained in advance the reasons behind liquidity draining the market.
Use all the tools at your disposal to gain the greatest chance of success

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

@danyohnevito Please explain, why does this not qualify as an A wave?

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

IF we had A higher for #BTC then its very possible that the B wave will take this form before we get C higher (above the top of A)

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

@IgorTradesX In what way is the TA bad?
Are you saying that the representation is invalid?
What are your alternates?

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

December hike odds are high because inflation is still above target, the economy is holding up, and two Fed voters already wanted to hike in October. The Fed held at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28, but Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted for a quarter-point increase. September PCE inflation was 3.6% year over year, with core at 3.1%. Meanwhile, October payrolls rose 165,000, unemployment held near 4.1%, and third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized pace. That combination gives the Fed room to prioritize inflation.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

@Jonatha79495694 In either scenario I expect some upside first, then everything will depend on whether it was A up or wave 1 up .....

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

#BTC may already have completed five waves up into the September high. If so, that rise could be wave A or wave 1.

The shaded decline still looks corrective to me. Once it’s complete, I’d look for wave C or wave 3 higher. For now, I’m watching for price to confirm a low.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

@Jonatha79495694 Sub-$60k is possible, but I wouldn’t put a year-end deadline on it. If the prior rally was wave A, a C-wave rally after B could give way to new lows. If it was wave 1, wave 2 should hold above its origin and set up wave 3 higher. Define your risk either way.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

@brodav1 47 days versus 10 is a fair point on proportion. I see a relatively sharp wave 2 and a more complex, overlapping decline in the proposed wave 4. That’s consistent with alternation. I still favour the correction, with a completed five-wave rise as a valid alternate.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

#BTC alternate count: Wave 4 may still be unfolding as a W–X–Y correction. That leaves room for a move toward $72k before a potential wave 5 higher. A break below $67k would invalidate the impulse count as drawn.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

Absolutely - adapt as new evidence emerges!

The bounce failed to hold, so I’m giving the extended W–X–Y count more weight. I still favour a corrective decline, and $67k remains the invalidation level for this impulse count. Updating the count as new evidence comes in is part of managing risk and is the Hallmark of an experienced trader

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

@brodav1 What price or time benchmark makes wave 4 look too large to you? The overlap still favours a correction in my view. A completed five-wave rise is a valid alternate. For the impulse as drawn, the invalidation level is the wave 1 high near $67k.

[Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader @mdtrade]

#BTC’s correction has extended, but the overlapping decline still supports my preferred corrective interpretation.

Another leg higher remains my base case, although the low is unconfirmed. A sustained reclaim of $79.2k–$80k would strengthen that view. Further weakness would require reassessment.