Professor Mark W Guthner

Associate Professor @ Rutgers Business School, Reformed Portfolio Manager, Options Guru, Best Selling Author, Public Speaker, U of Michigan Grad BSE(ME) & MBA

[Professor Mark W Guthner @MGuthner]

A look at a chart like this suggests that the US stock market is overvalued relative to the markets in the rest of the world. But this is not the case as the US economy, company revenue and earnings is growing faster than the rest of the world. As a result it should trade at a higher P/E ratio.

[Professor Mark W Guthner @MGuthner]

Economy chugging along. The economy will support equity prices. Rising interest rates put pressure on equity prices. Which force us stronger?

[Professor Mark W Guthner @MGuthner]

@WhaleNoName @0xPepesso Looks about right. Capitulation and rage selling may take $BTC to $30–40k range

[Professor Mark W Guthner @MGuthner]

US added 172K jobs. The economy is doing great. We at https://t.co/YrlOJ3awio continue to look for higher interest. We have been looking for higher for longer for 2 years now. QE & stimmies was an abuse of the monetary system that will take a decade or two to rebalance. Inflation is a problem and will be for some time.

[Professor Mark W Guthner @MGuthner]

Now getting to valuation of $BTC. $BTC is a commodity like gold, silver, oil, etc. Currencies are a form of commodity as well. They are a commodity manufactured by government, not nature. These assets do not have “intrinsic value,” which is the present value of the cash flow the asset generates, like a stock, bond or rental real estate. That said, they still have value. That value is subjective based on the use case of the asset. That is why they have a price in the marketplace. The challenge is finding a method to estimate value of commodities. Some like the stock to flow model. It unfortunately incomplete as it only looks at supply. It does not include demand. $BTC will have a price if people think it has a use case such as store of value or a trust less, inflation free base layer for a financial infrastructure.

[Professor Mark W Guthner @MGuthner]

Now to MSTR. It’s not a Ponzi scheme. What Michael Saylor did was create an option. When you buy an asset with leverage, you create an option. If the price goes up, you keep the gain on the synthetic call option. If the price goes down, below the value of the debt, the call option falls out of the money. If it goes far enough it becomes worthless. The owner of the call lets the option expire worthless and the creditors take over the asset. Options have time decay. That is reflected in the cost of debt on a perpetual option.

[Professor Mark W Guthner @MGuthner]

@brandank_cr @mcm_ct Make that 2029.

[Professor Mark W Guthner @MGuthner]

I think Social Security is the biggest Ponzi scheme ever. The gov. takes money from people and spends it. Therefore the system has no assets. To create the allusion there is an asset, they put an IOU in a briefcase like Jim & Jeff did in Dumb & Dumber. To keep the game going, they take money from a new group of people to make a payments to the 1st group of people. The game ends in 2032 and that will become clear in 2019.

[Professor Mark W Guthner @MGuthner]

The Options Edge: Now the #1 best selling book in the options trading category on Amazon.

[Professor Mark W Guthner @MGuthner]

Very interesting chart. Notice that there was no inflation when the world was on a gold standard. Enter the Fed when the world went on the PhD standard. From 1914 on there is nothing but inflation which destroyed the economies of many countries, many times. 1st goal of investing, don’t lose purchasing power. The Fed makes it hard to do particularly after income tax.

[Professor Mark W Guthner @MGuthner]

Booking Holdings | BKNG | Travel season is upon us. We prefer the asset lite players like Booking vs hotels & airlines which are asset heavy. | The Options Edge https://t.co/pF8O2YyRbj via @the_optionsedge

[Professor Mark W Guthner @MGuthner]

Close Trades & Reduce Risk | We think irrational exuberance the the emotion of the day. The prudent move is to reduce exposer not completely step away. The market will reward the patient and anti-fomo | The Options Edge https://t.co/ViRp2VIl2Y via @the_optionsedge

[Professor Mark W Guthner @MGuthner]

Rage selling of $BTC continues.

[Professor Mark W Guthner @MGuthner]

ADP says 122k jobs were added in May, 2k better than expected. Where is the AI jobpocolipse?

[Professor Mark W Guthner @MGuthner]

Investors have given up on $BTC. All the gogo investor wants in AI.

[Professor Mark W Guthner @MGuthner]

The bear market in $BTC is doing what all bear markets do, wear out the bulls. The time it takes to demoralize them is proportional to the degree of optimism at the top.

[Professor Mark W Guthner @MGuthner]

Exxon Mobile | XOM | Iranian & US govt not ready to make a deal. Where is Monty Hall when you need him? | The Options Edge https://t.co/z1OGN0rGgt via @the_optionsedge

[Professor Mark W Guthner @MGuthner]

The Hersey Corporation | HSY | Time for a guilty pleasure? | The Options Edge https://t.co/lew2fnhENH via @the_optionsedge

[Professor Mark W Guthner @MGuthner]

Super Micro Computer Inc | SMCI | Is it time to let them out of the penalty box? | The Options Edge https://t.co/Tyz4cQXIMI via @the_optionsedge