Ambassador Marc Sievers

Former U.S. Ambassador to Oman
30+ years U.S. Foreign Service
Former Founding Director, AJC Abu Dhabi
Commentator | Middle East & Gulf affairs

[Ambassador Marc Sievers @MJSievers]

My take on the ceasefire

Iran blinked. Just yesterday the regime rejected a temporary ceasefire and refused to meet in Islamabad. Over night they took President Trump’s threats seriously. There is no way to bridge Iran’s 10 points with America’s 15. So the outcome of negotiations depends on whether Iran accepts the fundamental U.S. demands: removal of highly enriched uranium, no further enrichment, dismantlement of ballistic missile and drone capacity, an end to funding and directing the regional proxies, and full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. We’ll see soon enough.

[David Albright @DAVIDHALBRIGHT1]

The just released quarterly IAEA safeguards report on Iran reminds us that under UNSC resolutions, Iran is required to suspend all its enrichment activities. Enrichment and reprocessing suspension is the IAEA’s new benchmark, not JCPOA limits, that is verified in this safeguards report. The report makes clear that without Iran allowing any meaningful access, it cannot verify that suspension.

The report also reiterates that Iran continues to refuse to address its undeclared nuclear material and activities, in violation of its comprehensive safeguards agreement.

The report shows that Iran has no legal right to deny the IAEA access or to fail to cooperate.

Discussions about a right to enrich by those in Iran and elsewhere are merely a dishonest diversion from the issues of Iran’s violations of internationally binding UNSC resolutions and the NPT. These binding obligations are not reduced or eliminated by the wars. In fact, the war can be seen in part as a bilateral step to enforce these obligations.

We will release a longer analysis of the report next week.

[Mossad Commentary @MOSSADil]

GOOD: After 17 years of expanding its footprint in U.S. education—from K-12 classrooms and teacher training programs to universities and national education networks—Qatar Foundation International (QFI) has announced it is shutting down operations.

The closure marks the end of a major Qatari-backed effort to influence educational institutions across the United States.

@Osint613

[سيف الدرعي| Saif alderei @saif_aldareei]

T1 Passenger Terminal at Kuwait Airport.. 100% civilian building.
Iran and its militias are bombing a civilian airport and killing civilians.
This isn’t deterrence — this is cheap, cowardly terrorism

[Gary Goldstein @GaryGol88424403]

The most prominent Jewish American leader in the country is US Senator Chuck Schumer, the Senate Minority Leader. Today he met with the press:

After being asked about Mr. Platner for a fifth time by reporters, Schumer finally responded, "As I said, I endorsed Graham Platner."

"We're going to beat Susan Collins and take back the Senate," he reiterated before walking away.

I don't think Israel or the Jewish community ever thought we would witness treachery on this scale in a time of war against Israel and the Diaspora community by Jewish leaders. The cowardice is vile.

[OSINT News @OSINTNewsqrb]

NEW: UAE President MbZ's Advisor Anwar Gargash:

“From the Arabian Gulf to Yemen, Lebanon, and Iraq, we are all paying the price for Iran's inflated regional ambitions.

No state in the region can play a role at the expense of shared security, stability, and prosperity.

Review is required and inevitable, on clear foundations: respect for sovereignty, good neighborliness, and non-interference in others' affairs.”

[Alberto Miguel Fernandez @AlbertoMiguelF5]

Smart analysis.

[Amit Segal @AmitSegal]

EXCLUSIVE: According to a very senior official on the PM’s team on the late-night Netanyahu-Trump call, the Axios report is inaccurate. Trump did not make personal remarks about jail or claim Netanyahu is hated globally.

​Instead, the tense call focused on conflicting social media posts: Trump felt Netanyahu implied the war was continuing at full intensity, while Netanyahu felt Trump implied a total ceasefire.

​Trump did note that defending Israel’s global position is difficult and breeds hatred. Ultimately, the call ended with an understanding: Israel will hold off on striking Beirut as long as it is not attacked within its own borders.

[د. أنور قرقاش @AnwarGargash]

من الخليج العربي إلى اليمن ولبنان والعراق، ندفع جميعًا ثمن الطموح الإيراني الإقليمي المتضخم. لا يمكن أن يكون دور أي دولة في الإقليم على حساب الأمن والاستقرار والازدهار المشترك.

المراجعة مطلوبة وحتمية، وعلى أسس واضحة: احترام السيادة، وحسن الجوار، وعدم التدخل في شؤون الآخرين.

[Amjad Taha أمجد طه @amjadt25]

America would never tolerate Cuba firing drones and missiles at Washington. Trump wouldn't accept any calls for a ceasefire then. Why should Israel be expected to live under the threat of Hezbollah terrorism?And why should the Middle East be expected to coexist with the terrorism and aggression of the Islamic regime in Iran? Why should the Iranian people be forced to live under a regime that has killed their children, oppressed their women, and crushed their freedoms?
No nation is required to accept permanent insecurity. Peace requires accountability, not appeasement.

[daniel hanuka📟 🇮🇱 @LionsOfZion_ORG]

A friend from the UAE:
“What amuses us most is that Muslims in Europe allow themselves to do things they would never dare do in any Muslim country, simply because Muslims know how to set boundaries with Muslims, while European leaders are afraid of them. That’s the whole story.”

[Ahmed Khalifa @_A_khalifa]

Over 2,800 rockets & drones
rained down on Dubai & the UAE
during an actual war, & life went on.
But in FRANCE? A football match
caused total chaos 😂😂

And you’re talking about security?
We’re centuries ahead of you!

[Bechara Gerges @BecharaGerges]

🚩For forty years, Washington “managed” Iran and “contained” its proxies and called the frozen board stability. Tehran liked that board. It fought its wars on other people’s soil, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, so the cost never reached Iran itself.

Critics called what President Trump did reckless. Read the sequence, and it’s the opposite. He brought the cost home to Iran, the first senior US–Iran contact since 1979 came after the pressure, not before it, then negotiated from strength: holding the nuclear line, refusing the cheap deal, treating the Strait of Hormuz as leverage instead of a gift.

And the moment Iran was fighting for itself, the shield over Hezbollah cracked. That is why Lebanon and Israel are in their first real talks since 1983, and why a Lebanese president finally stood up and named Hezbollah as Iran’s armed faction, not Lebanon’s defender. The proxy lost its patron’s cover.

Two clocks frozen since 1979 and 1983 are moving in the same month, under Trump Doctrine: make the aggressor pay at home, and his forward empire unwinds on its own.

I’m Lebanese. I lived the management years. This is the first time the math actually changed.

[Edward N Luttwak @ELuttwak]

David Albright is THE expert on Iran's quest for nuclear weapons [NW] w centrifuge enrichment. He states: Iran was v. close to NW before the June 2025 war. Military threats no longer worked. Deterrence had already failed. Today, Iran is far from NW. War not futile as many claim

[Hussain Abdul-Hussain @hahussain]

Morocco is an Abraham Accords country and has normalized its ties with Israel and focused on growing its economy.
South Africa is a country that’s been eroding its peace ties with Israel, obsessed with vilifying the Jewish state, and ignoring its corruption-ridden economy.

[Ahmed Khalifa @_A_khalifa]

We warned them, but obviously
it was pointless… so yeah,
we’ll just repeat the warning 😎🤷🏻‍♂️

[Hussain Abdul-Hussain @hahussain]

Turns out the UAE is “Little Sparta” and “exceptional,” stands up for itself and fights back, while Saudi Arabia curls in the corner, whines and tells on the UAE to America. https://t.co/wQGFteXGoO

[Moran Zaga @moran_zaga]

Since Haitham replaced Qaboos, Oman has no clear strategy and is definitely not neutral. Actually, it has the most pro-Iran policy in the Arab World, after Iraq.

[عبدالله النعيمي @AbdllahAlneaimi]

أنا من الجيل الذي نشأ على حب دول الخليج، وتمييزها عن سواها... كنت أتألم لأي أذى يصيب دولة خليجية، وأتضامن معها كأنها بلدي الثانية، واستمر هذا الشعور 51 عاما... حتى جاءت هذه السنة، ورأيت مواطنين خليجيين يفرحون بقصف إيران لبلدي، ويبررون لها... في تلك اللحظة، تغير شيء في داخلي.

[Ambassador Marc Sievers @MJSievers]

Fair warning.

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

The United States Government will not tolerate any effort to impose a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz. Oman, in particular, should know that the U.S. Treasury will aggressively target any actors involved - directly or indirectly - in facilitating tolls for the Strait and any willing partners will be penalized. All nations should reject outright any efforts by Iran to disrupt the free flow of commerce. Tehran’s days of terrorizing the region and the world are over.

[Ahmed Quraishi @_AhmedQuraishi]

**From #Makkah at the peak of Hajj, #Lebanon's grand mufti, the highest religious authority for Lebanese Sunni Muslims, welcomes direct talks with #Israel.**
Lebanon’s Grand Mufti welcomed negotiations with Israel "to stop the war and end the occupation," describing them as "a political and religious act worthy of support." He made the remarks Monday in a message to the Lebanese people from Mecca on the occasion of Eid al-Adha.

Mufti Sheikh Abdel Latif Derian stressed the need to avoid further harm after the failure of "the methods used in confronting the enemy" — a diplomatic reference to Iran-backed militias that present themselves as defenders of Lebanon and the Palestinians.

"In circumstances like ours, people turn to their states, institutions, and their social and moral foundations," he said.

"But authorities become powerless, the enemy shows no mercy, social structures begin to collapse, and an existential threat emerges not only to states and nations, but to human dignity itself."

Referring to Lebanon, Gaza, and Palestine, Derian added:"We cannot rely solely on the enemy’s calculations and considerations. We must think about what we can and cannot do in order to avoid harm."

Alluding to armed confrontation, he continued: "None of us is any longer convinced by the methods being pursued in confronting the enemy or in seeking outside solidarity and support."

He explained: "With every confrontation, we lose more land, more lives, and more of the foundations of stability, not to mention security and sovereignty."