US30: soft PCE just flipped the open π’
Core PCE 3.0% vs 3.3% expected
Headline 3.4% vs 3.7%
Dow futures +184 pts (+0.35%) into the bell
Early cash was up ~0.3%
Yields cooling. Don't chase the first candle.
GOLD: bounce is real, trend isn't π₯
Spot ~$4,190, off Monday's $4,111 low
Today's range: $4,166 β $4,202
Sellers still parked at $4,230
50-day is way up at ~$4,323
This is a bounce. Not a reversal. $XAUUSD
JUST IN: Oct Fed hike odds got nuked
Williams: no urgency after the Sept hike. Soft JOLTS + confidence did the rest.
CME FedWatch: hike odds 49.4% now vs 74.6% yesterday. Hold is back on the table.
PCE drops later. That's the whole tape today.
$NVDA: announces the biggest buyback in history
Nasdaq: 249 new lows vs 40 new highs
NYSE: 3.5 decliners for every advancer
Index bulls: "see, we're fine" π€‘
Breadth is screaming. Generals can't carry the whole army forever.
$TSLA -3.9% after JPMorgan trims its target π
PT $445 β $415, Neutral kept
Q3 delivery est cut to 482K from 516K
Weak US + China cited. Aug China registrations down ~13%
Only Mag 7 name red YTD (-15%). Deliveries due this week.
$NVDA just authorized a $150B buyback π€―
Biggest repurchase authorization increase ever.
Total buyback firepower now $235B.
Stock +1.6% Monday while the rest of the tape bled red.
~30x trailing P/E = cheapest in ~4 years per Yahoo.
Jensen buying the dip on his own chart.
$USDJPY bouncing back toward 157.75 in Asia
Dip buyers showed up after the BoJ's July minutes
Dollar still near its highest since late July
Rate gap says higher. Tokyo intervention chatter says careful.
JUST IN: Korea's back from Chuseokβ¦ and it's red π»
KOSPI -2.4% to ~6,913, back below 7,000
Samsung -4.3%
SK hynix -4.7%
SK Square -7.2%
Foreigners + institutions dumping chips as US yields bite.
$MU earnings Wednesday. Memory bulls, eyes up.
GOLD: $4,200 just cracked
Spot gold -2.1% to ~$4,198
On pace for its worst day since Sept 1
High yields + firm dollar + rate-hike bets = gold's kryptonite rn
Trading under the 50-day (~$4,321) AND 200-day (~$4,540)
Next big floor on the chart: ~$4,000
$GLD $XAUUSD
The #10Y refuses to cool off π
US 10Y yield holding ~5.20%, highest since 2007
30Y ~5.51%
Futures now price ~66% odds of a Fed HIKE in October
and zero cuts until mid-2028.
PCE Wednesday. Payrolls Friday. Strap in.
solana:GTBxUiw6wJdmmkCGZgRHLyYxqu1vG4KtRpeox6yDpump topped. MK ONE was already short.
Entry: 0.009
TP: [0.005]
Move: -40%
Everyone was buying the top. The chart was saying sell.
JUST IN: $AKAM jumped 20%+ premarket Friday after announcing a 7-year, $11.6B deal with Anthropic.
Anthropic also gets warrants for up to ~5% of the company at $111.33 a share.
Also on the tape: $COST beat on Q4 ($6.60 EPS vs $6.53 est, $95.72B revenue vs $94.86B est).
OIL: Two benchmarks, two different weeks.
$WTI -7.9% on the week β $92.41
Brent +0.4% β $104.32
The BrentβWTI spread blew out from ~$3.57 to $11.91 in five sessions. Spread traders are eating π½οΈ
The #10Y hit 5.1685% intraday this week, the highest since July 2007.
The 10Y and 30Y both printed fresh 52-week highs Friday, and stocks still closed green.
Next week the market has to handle 5%+ yields AND core #PCE on Wednesday. Watch that 5% handle.
WEEKLY CLOSE:
$SPX 7,743 β +1.2% on the week
Nasdaq 27,068 β +2.1%
Dow 51,828 β +0.3%
Russell 2000 β -0.8%
S&P ends a 3-day losing streak and sits 0.7% under its all-time high. Bulls got the week back π
$U parked near $44 after the run off ~$18.
Weekly resistance still $52β60. $40 is the line that keeps the structure intact; clear $60 and the map changes.