Inflation could well be lower than expected in 2027.
"That sets the scene for oil glut by next year, with extra production of perhaps 3mn-4mn b/d — and oil producers no doubt eyeing prices with unease."
The oil shortage is ending — and now comes the glut https://t.co/aFbGiqNtZ3 via @ft
💯
Crowding out is coming!
Zero growth Value is going to derate even further.
The inescapable return of an old financial framework https://t.co/E8C6WyQ3Vq via @ft
This is an interesting article which portrays how we must not lose sight that the US-Sino Ai Race is a new Cold War.
"The first phase focused on chips, the second on models. The next may concern the ownership and governance of intelligence itself."
Trump is taking a page out of China’s sovereign AI playbook https://t.co/ovYj5nsM2D via @ft
The Fed is stale and needs fast evolution...
“Almost every private company CEO that’s running his or her business are doing so with real-time information that isn’t subject to much revision, that is telling them what just happened at that very moment.”
Five things to know about Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting as chair https://t.co/XhSMiFf9uC via @ft
AI execution is now separating the Magnificent 7
While the S&P 500 is up +8.4% YTD
$MSFT -21.6%
$META -14.0%
$TSLA -11.8%
$AMZN +2.8%
$AAPL +8.8%
$NVDA +9.7%
$GOOGL +16.2%
Total 🤡 Show! So their clients will be fighting the MKT with one hand tied behind their backs. By simple Logic: Clients should find another WM.
Rathbones shares sink 18% as it halts investments by high-risk clients via @FT
https://t.co/j4hQ747pg1
Would half a trillion dollars put undue strain on investors’ appetite?
The market has $8tn sitting in money market funds, a sum rising briskly for years, the total market cap of the US stock market is over $70tn.
AI revolutionizing stock market via @FT
https://t.co/VgPT9OZF21
“at about 2.5 per cent of US stock market capitalisation — has made it too big for many investment managers to avoid.”
SpaceX’s IPO is a display of Musk’s dominance via @FT
https://t.co/n6yd95mb5Q
"RSI “the final boss battle”: the last remaining obstacle standing in the way of superintelligence."
“Much of the rest of the world seems to be in denial about the capabilities of AI systems today, let alone those that will exist in six months,”
"the complexity of human tasks that AI can do autonomously is roughly doubling every seven months.
‘Close to the Terminator narrative’: the dawn of self-improving AI https://t.co/o5ZUXQvMrr via @ft
💯
"My first conclusion is that AI is not just any “general purpose technology”. If it develops in the ways that seem likely, it might change almost everything: AI is indeed existential.
A guide for the perplexed on AI https://t.co/EUBBLVRRHC via @ft
"Almost no one in the industry sees quantum computers as a replacement for conventional machines because the technology will be best suited for a relatively narrow range of highly complex tasks."
The quantum computing revolution is closer than you think https://t.co/qNyfu5lpJU via @ft
Finally, the FT journos are starting to wake up.
"mounting evidence during the past few months that the use of AI is exploding."
"the revenue lift is also becoming meaningful"
"on track to register its first operating profit this quarter."
IF Katie Martin turns Bullish on Tech, its defo time to FLEE!
The AI public market floodgates are opening https://t.co/ocpDmarPxJ via @ft
If DJT delivers with Iran near term, inflation will settle. Yet again it looks as if the ECB clowned it.
"core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, only ticked up moderately to 2.9 per cent from 2.8 per cent the previous month, suggesting the inflationary fallout in the wider economy remained muted. Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said the data showed that the US economy was not yet displaying a “clear sign of broader second-round effects” from energy prices."
US inflation jumped to 4.2% in May amid Middle East energy shock https://t.co/E9Hqmlp63l via @ft
ai pilled companies spending $90k / employee per year 🤯
per employee, not per engineer.
where does this go in a year!? can't wait to find out...
from ramp's dataset (70k companies).
The global memory market is now projected to reach as much as $889.3 billion in 2026, per TrendForce, up 296% YoY and a substantial 61.2% increase from its prior forecast for $551.6 billion.
$MU $AMD $NVDA $AVGO
Good take
My guess is
- demand for intelligence is near infinite
- but 80% of workloads will be running on 99% cheaper models within 12-18 months
- 20% of workloads will still run on latest gen models where IQ maxing is important (scientific breakthroughs, higher level ochestrator agents?)
- rough analogy might be what % of macbooks or gaming PCs sold have the maxed out specs for CPU/GPU, prices are falling much faster than Moore's law here though
- this leads me to think the limiting factor will be energy and compute, not better models
At Coinbase we're working hard on routing prompts to cheaper models where appropriate, and in some cases have been able to keep costs roughly flat, while token usage continues to grow exponentially.