The MMA Consigliere

AI backed UFC predictions
Finding betting value in he fight market
Model performance tracked publicly

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

I built an AI model to predict UFC fight outcomes and betting value.

Every week I use it to identify mispriced lines and positive EV opportunities in the betting market.

This account tracks the model publicly.

How it works \/

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

@ufc @Polymarket My money is on USMAN

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

Tabatha Ricci vs Fatima Kline
My model: Tabatha Ricci 52.9%
Market implied: 25.0%
Edge: 27.9%
Kalshi Odds: +300
Expected Value: 111.8%
Units: 0.5
Bet Tier: Official

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

🚨 Official Bets - Fight Night: Du Plessis v Usman🚨

1. A Bashi @ +104 w/ 2u
2. K Usman @ +212 w/ 1u
3. J Cannonier @ +257 w/ 1u
4. M Ramirez @ +300 w/ 0.5u
5. T Ricci @ +300 w/ 0.5u

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

Mitch Ramirez vs Chase Hooper
My model: Mitch Ramirez 31.7%
Market implied: 25.0%
Edge: 6.7%
Kalshi Odds: +300
Expected Value: 27.0%
Units: 0.5
Bet Tier: Official

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan
My model: Jared Cannonier 61.9%
Market implied: 28.0%
Edge: 33.8%
Kalshi Odds: +257
Expected Value: 120.8%
Units: 1.0
Bet Tier: Official

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis
My model: Kamaru Usman 44.1%
Market implied: 32.1%
Edge: 12.0%
Kalshi Odds: +212
Expected Value: 37.5%
Units: 1.0
Bet Tier: Official

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

Austin Bashi vs Jose Delgado
My model: Austin Bashi 59.9%
Market implied: 49.0%
Edge: 10.9%
Kalshi Odds: +104
Expected Value: 22.2%
Units: 2.0
Bet Tier: Premium

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

⏳Post UFC 329 Running performance (7/11)⌛️

Record: 35-34
Bets: 69
Win rate: 50.7%
Net units: +17.38u
ROI: 15.2%

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

UFC 329 Toughest miss:

Nikita Krylov +133 (-2.00u)

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

💸 UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 results💸

Official bets: 3-4
Net units: +0.90u
Event ROI: 8.5%
Average edge: 13.3%

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

UFC 329 Best hit:

Brandon Royval +186 (+3.72u)

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

@ufc @robwhittakermma @paramountplus My AI algorithm says to bet against THE REAPER. Sorry not sorry

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis
My model: Paddy Pimblett 45.2%
Market implied: 44.1%
Edge: 1.1%
Kalshi Odds: +127
Expected Value: 2.5%
Units: 0.5
Bet Tier: Lean

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

🚨 UFC 329: McGregor v Holloway 2 - Official Bets🚨

1. B Royval @ +186 w/ 2u
2. K Green @ +127 w/ 2u
3. N Krylov @ +133 w/ 2u
4. T Cortez @ -100 w/ 2u
5. C Durden @ +223 w/ 1u
6. C Sandhagen @ -138 w/ 1u
7. P Pimblett @ +127 w/ 0.5u

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista
My model: Cory Sandhagen 59.9%
Market implied: 58.0%
Edge: 1.9%
Kalshi Odds: -138
Expected Value: 3.3%
Units: 1.0
Bet Tier: Lean

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

Cody Durden vs Alessandro Costa
My model: Cody Durden 45.4%
Market implied: 31.0%
Edge: 14.5%
Kalshi Odds: +223
Expected Value: 46.8%
Units: 1.0
Bet Tier: Official

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

Tracy Cortez vs Wang Cong
My model: Tracy Cortez 68.7%
Market implied: 50.0%
Edge: 18.7%
Kalshi Odds: -100
Expected Value: 37.5%
Units: 2.0
Bet Tier: Premium

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

Nikita Krylov vs Robert Whittaker
My model: Nikita Krylov 56.2%
Market implied: 42.9%
Edge: 13.3%
Kalshi Odds: +133
Expected Value: 31.1%
Units: 2.0
Bet Tier: Premium

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

King Green vs Terrance McKinney
My model: King Green 76.7%
Market implied: 44.1%
Edge: 32.6%
Kalshi Odds: +127
Expected Value: 74.1%
Units: 2.0
Bet Tier: Premium

[The MMA Consigliere @MMAConsigliere]

Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh
My model: Brandon Royval 46.1%
Market implied: 35.0%
Edge: 11.1%
Kalshi Odds: +186
Expected Value: 31.7%
Units: 2.0
Bet Tier: Premium