UFC Value Bets

Using machine learning to provide Closing Line Value (CLV) on high EV bets

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

An early parlay for #UFCCharlotte:

Almeida, Dern, and Williams +126 on DK

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

My SGP for Halloway/Allen boost on DK:

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

Adding to #UFCKansasCity:

Rodriguez and Robertson to go the distance +108 FD (Bet 1U)

Garcia/Cummings ML Parlay +102 DK (Bet 1U)

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[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

Additional ML adds for #UFCKansasCity:

To win 1U:
Piera Rodriquez -170 DK
Matheus Nicolau -165 DK
Zellhuber -130 DK

Gomes +200 DK (Bet 0.5U)

#GamblingTwitter

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

@SidepocketSid Every parlay that has this many fighters is a longshot, favorites or not

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

Here is what I went with for the two DK boosts:
I take long shots on parlay boosts as the max bets are small.

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

+100, +120, +130 all on DK

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

Final Adds to #UFC287:

All "to go the distance" bet 1U per:

Wilams / Sherman
Amorim / Hughes
Holland / Ponzinibbio

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[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

Adding to #UFC287:

Pereira/Adesanya ends by KO +110 FD (Bet 0.75U)
Burns/Masvidal goes the distance +110 DK (Bet 1U)
Font/Yanez goes the distance -110 DK (Bet 1.1U)

#gamblingtwitter

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

If you would like you can hedge the Burns/Masvidal bet with the FD boosts (Burns/Masvidal to end by KO)

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

Adding to #UFC287:

Pereira/Adesanya ends by KO +110 FD (Bet 0.75U)
Burns/Masvidal goes the distance +110 DK (Bet 1U)
Font/Yanez goes the distance -110 DK (Bet 1.1U)

#gamblingtwitter

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

Initial ML bets to win 1U for #UFCVegas72 (4/22):

Simon -125 DK
Tavares -155 DK
Rosas -135 DK
Silva -175 DK

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[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

Adding to #UFC287:

Pereira/Adesanya ends by KO +110 FD (Bet 0.75U)
Burns/Masvidal goes the distance +110 DK (Bet 1U)
Font/Yanez goes the distance -110 DK (Bet 1.1U)

#gamblingtwitter

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

Initial ML Bets for #UFC287:

To win 1U:

Yanez -170 DK
Rosa Jr. -190 DK
Curtis -155 DK
Pinheiro -186 BR/PS
Bahamondes + Godinez -119 DK

#GamblingTwitter

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

Additional ML adds for #UFCKansasCity:

To win 1U:
Piera Rodriquez -170 DK
Matheus Nicolau -165 DK
Zellhuber -130 DK

Gomes +200 DK (Bet 0.5U)

#GamblingTwitter

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

Initial ML Bets for #UFCKansasCity

To win 1U:
Tanner Boser -125 DK
Bill Algeo -150 DK

#GamblingTwitter

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

@TheApeTrader Yes, good clarification

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

Initial ML Bets for #UFCKansasCity

To win 1U:
Tanner Boser -125 DK
Bill Algeo -150 DK

#GamblingTwitter

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

A clean sweep on the night is always fun. 🧹🧹🧹🧹

These judges are out of control though, every decision is an absolute roller coaster.

#GamblingTwiitter

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

Adding:

Altamirano -105 DK
Giles -110 DK
Torres -150 DK

#UFCSanAntonio #GamblingTwitter

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

Vidal opened at -195, moved to plus money very quickly then is out with a medical issue, not suspicious at all. 🙄🤪

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

One last data point here, if you blind bet every in March you would have yielded an 11% ROI on 41 fights that did not push. Over the past year (excluding March) underdogs were -8.5% ROI

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[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

Been a really challenging couple of weeks due to poor performances by strong favorites

Over the past 3 events <-200 favorites won 63% of fights vs. implied odds of 79%, past year they are 72% vs. implied odds of 76%

I expect a regression back towards 72% in the coming weeks

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

Adding:

Altamirano -105 DK
Giles -110 DK
Torres -150 DK

#UFCSanAntonio #GamblingTwitter

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

Adding Maycee Barber -195 DK (to win 1U)

#UFCSanAntonio #GamblingTwitter

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

One last add, no date yet but Edwards at -120 on DK vs. Covington is a play for me

Edwards opened as an underdog but was bet down almost instantly, I expect this will move even lower as we get clsoer.

I have Edwards modeled at 64% win %, so i think there is value as low as -177

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

Initial ML Bets for #UFC287:

To win 1U:

Yanez -170 DK
Rosa Jr. -190 DK
Curtis -155 DK
Pinheiro -186 BR/PS
Bahamondes + Godinez -119 DK

#GamblingTwitter

[UFC Value Bets @MMAValueBets]

Been a really challenging couple of weeks due to poor performances by strong favorites

Over the past 3 events <-200 favorites won 63% of fights vs. implied odds of 79%, past year they are 72% vs. implied odds of 76%

I expect a regression back towards 72% in the coming weeks