Bullish Auction Market Profile patterns that lead to rallies.
What pattern did all of the paired market profile graphics shown below exhibit that set the stage for a subsequent rally. I'm applying Donald Jones' auction market value principles?
Simple Answer:
• the close travels from below value to above value across two sessions
• value (fairest price) migrates up
• session two concludes with unfinished business — a poor high to be revisited next session
Detailed Answer:
Day 1 — an incomplete auction
• Poor high made late. High printed in periods 7–8 on two or three TPOs. Poor high = an extreme with no singleton rejection tail, so the auction never advertised those prices as unacceptable. It stays available for retest.
• Failed late-session rally. Periods 7–8 carry price back up into the thin upper zone; period 9 collapses to the opposite extreme. Buyers were present and got run over into the bell.
• Close at or near the session low, below the TPOC. TPOC = price with maximum time diversity, i.e. where the auction agreed value was. Closing beneath it means the day ends with the market disagreeing with its own value.
• No excess at the low. Closing on the extreme means price was still probing at the bell — no punctuation mark. Incomplete auction: the next session is granted permission to probe lower until excess forms.
• b-shape or value in the lower half — heavy time at the bottom, thin above. Initiative selling.
Day 2 — permission for a retest of day 1's lows declined
• Opens above Day 1's close and the low holds there. The granted probe is refused outright. Refusal is stronger evidence than probe-and-reverse, because the market never even advertised those prices.
• Low holds at or above Day 1's TPOC in most cases — prior validated value becomes support on first contact.
• TPOC prints higher than Day 1's TPOC. Value migration up.
• VPOC and TPOC coincide at the new node. Volume and time agree at the same price: transaction with agreement, the inverse of the trapped-buyer divergence. Value is validated, not merely transacted.
• Buying tail from the open — periods 1–2 alone at the lows, never revisited. Responsive buying.
• Close above Day 2's own TPOC but below its high.
• Close above value confirms; close short of the extreme leaves the buying auction itself incomplete, with thin structure overhead that must be resolved.
Key reference prices
• Entry: Day 2's close.
• Anchor that must hold: Day 1's TPOC.
• First objective: Day 1's poor high — the one unresolved reference in the structure.
Invalidation of new long initiation
• Trade back below Day 1's close.
• Day 2's TPOC printing at or below Day 1's TPOC — value failed to migrate, and the whole premise is gone.