Douglas Padgett

Macro Trading, Flow Following, Deep Learning Model Building. CEO Modern Macro Technologies

[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

Weekly Update is Live!

https://t.co/1lEKWKs1Qz

[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

@fkronawitter1

[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

Inflation getting hot! Setting up some late cycle dynamics. Full analysis in the update.

https://t.co/wgkikq2FR3

[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

Big jobs beat today, but economic activity heating up while fiscal slows puts us in a precarious spot.

Not unsustainable yet, but the worst of the oil/Hormuz supply shocks are still very much in front of us. More inflation is coming. Still structurally bullish, but getting thin.

[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

https://t.co/Kqan1Qtphh
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https://t.co/uXZNIx4RMI
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[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

DeepMMT does it again. 2 + years of pinpoint accuracy. 🎯

Put your politics aside, what MMT does for traders/investors is give you the proper framework for analysis of the core driver of asset prices: flows. Accurate forecasting begins with understanding flows & their impact.

[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

DeepMMT continues its precision SPX forecasts.

I launched DeepMMT 3 years ago, and the track record speaks for itself. (see the 3 year history of calls below)

Not only has the model proven itself, but it's proven that the predominant driver of price is flows. MMT was right.

[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

6 months ago, DeepMMT was looking for a major selloff to materialize in Feb 2026. I've been discounting this forecast, thinking it was a mix of base effects and bias towards recent seasonality but I'm starting to think DeepMMT knew something all along.

[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

As long as the fiscal add remains large enough the earning expectations will always be met, you don't necessarily need productivity.

Even if they disappoint, as long as fiscal is adding to the net financial assets of the private sector it will continue to support the next marginal borrowers loan and the forced deleveraging risk remains low and the valuations hold.

[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

Diversification outside the US still makes sense here.

Following liberation day, the rest of the world has outperformed the US at an unprecedented pace.

The Iran conflict gave a short reprieve (dollar rally) but it looks like the next leg of the trend change is underway.

[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

@BullNecessities The debt is the flow from public to private. They dont issue debt to borrow to spend, they issue debt as spending.

[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

Returns follow flows, not economic activity & earnings.

By the time the headlines say the economy is heating up most of the move has already happened because what most of macro measures is a consequence of, not the cause of, fiscal and credit expansion.

The biggest move in returns comes directly from fiscal. Fiscal also supports credit expansion which in turn caries the cycle along as fiscal fades.

This cycle began in late 2022 because of the massive fiscal add from the rate hikes. That was the time to get bullish and excited about a huge run. Now is the time to be vigilant, looking for policy decisions and shocks that may bring an end to the fiscal support and work against credit growth.

[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

Bitcoin follows the acceleration of fiscal. Nice rally off the back of fiscal acceleration in early April.

I'm not convinced that it'll hold for all that long, but some fiscal headwinds are starting to wane (tariffs/taxes) so some hope for a reasonable rally here.

[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

Market Update Live!

A few late cycle signals are starting to show, but core flows still likely remain supportive for now.

https://t.co/Q0Vvsft6kx

[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

@EMaggiori_ Not looking good. There are plenty of detailed works (even by those outside the MMT world) that explain monetary and treasury operations and instead of quoting them and engaging with the actual work you chose to just make up a hypothetical.

[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

If you're going to debunk something, for the love of God at least quote them in their own words as opposed to what you "think" they're saying.

[Emmanuel Maggiori @EMaggiori_]

Today is launch day!

Modern Monetary Theory #mmt is a seductive economic theory that's making the rounds around the world. It was popularized by Stephanie Kelton in her book The Deficit Myth, and it's been influencing politicians around the world.

The theory was dismissed by traditional economists right away. But I didn’t want to do that. I wanted to learn as much as I could before drawing conclusions. So, I approached it with an open mind and read over 3,000 pages of work by modern monetary theorists themselves and their most thoughtful critics.

The conclusion: MMT is not good. But I think we all need to understand what MMT says, as it’s a deeply seductive theory with the potential to cause a mess.

Get a copy of my new book now :)

https://t.co/BfIOZ8miXi

[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

@HeadedNine I follow margin debt somewhat closely, its an important piece to the larger macro puzzle.

[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

I am not bearish... yet. But this is concerning.

Margin debt growing at a much faster pace than market returns historically ends quite poorly, especially when the fiscal rug gets pulled. 1/2

[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

@positive_gains Yep, could correct/fix itself. Not an inevitability yet.

[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

@Joe19nn Fiscal impulse hasnt been negative since 2022, been positive ever sense.