MOBILISE (3yr ORA Funded Large Grant Project)

Why do some protest & others migrate?🇺🇦🇦🇷🇵🇱🇲🇦PIs @OOnuch, Sasse, Toma, Van Stekelenburg @ESRC @dfg_public @AgenceRecherche @NWONieuws 2019-2023

[MOBILISE (3yr ORA Funded Large Grant Project) @MOBILISEproject]

Wow its our 7th peer reviewed/15th overall publication showcasing @MOBILISEproject findings!

@oonuch @GwendolynSasse & Sebastien Michiels @ENSAEparis analyze our #Belarus #ProtestSurvey (led by Onuch & supported by teams @UoMPolitics @ZOiS_Berlin CREST)

Who protested in 2020?

[Cambridge University Press - Politics @CUP_PoliSci]

#OpenAccess from @NationalitiesP -

Flowers, Tractors, & Telegram: Who are the Protesters in #Belarus?: A Survey Based Assessment of Anti-Lukashenka Protest Participants - https://t.co/BNiuuTuZJR

- @oonuch, @GwendolynSasse & Sébastien Michiels

#FirstView #Lukashenka

[Olga Onuch (Онух) @oonuch]

Make this @OfficialUoM press release viral
“Trump … echoed Kremlin talking points, by falsely claiming …Zelensky’s approval rating stands at a mere 4% … polling…puts his approval rating at 63% - making him the most popular politician in the country.”
https://t.co/WKP9cWw2eO

[Volodymyr Kulyk @VolodymyrKulyk4]

Proud that my coauthors and I have hard data to disprove trump's blatant lies about Zelensky and Ukraine.

[Vasyl Myroshnychenko @AmbVasyl]

Trump is making false claims about Zelensky's popularity, say experts @oonuch @GwendolynSasse

https://t.co/27ExhU4vyM

[Olga Onuch (Онух) @oonuch]

The nerdy report https://t.co/JWtFtxBMvE

[Olga Onuch (Онух) @oonuch]

А тепер наші дані на сайті КМІС

https://t.co/Kxu8GPFkbX

Читайте і Передавайте дальше
@VolodymyrKulyk4 @GwendolynSasse

[The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent]

⚡️63% of Ukrainians approve Zelensky as president, poll shows.

https://t.co/tcQSw2Ldsh

[Olga Onuch (Онух) @oonuch]

Great to see my team’s poll making the rounds.

[SUSPILNE NEWS 📰 @suspilne_news]

63% українців схвалюють діяльність Зеленського як президента України і 74% вважають його патріотом. Про це свідчать дані опитування проєкту Онух IBIF, опублікованого КМІС.
https://t.co/HMAxmK2iAu

Інфографіка: Онух IBIF / КМІС

[Olga Onuch (Онух) @oonuch]

Being a democrat elevates the likelihood that a #Belarusian agrees with #Belarus joining the EU by 22 percentage points at a 99% sig level

Neither viability of accession nor the war threat alone are significant enough factors to compete with the democratic pull of the #EU.

[Olga Onuch (Онух) @oonuch]

The @MOBILISEproject @ESRC also includes data from #Poland allowing us to explore this EU democratic pull phenomenon.

Being a supporter of democracy increases the likelihood that a Pole holds a pro-EU position by 12 percentage points at the 99% sig level

https://t.co/rFMD9nMyw9

[Olga Onuch (Онух) @oonuch]

But are we sure that it’s those that MOVE to DEMOCRACY then MOVE to DESIRING EU ACCESSION?

YES! Using panel data (thankU @MOBILISEproject @ESRC)

I show that becoming a democrat between 2019 & 2021 increases the likelihood of adopting a pro-EU stance by 15 percentage points.

[Olga Onuch (Онух) @oonuch]

What drives ordinary citizens to want their country to join or stay in the European Union (EU)?

🧵 it’s being a democrat or becoming one!

“Fighting for Europe: The EU's Democratic Pull Phenomenon in #Ukraine, #Poland and #Belarus”

OPEN ACCESS @JCMS_EU

https://t.co/rFMD9nMyw9

[Judy Dempsey @Judy_Dempsey]

A must and timely read on Ukraine by @GwendolynSasse on how international actors have to see bigger picture - how war, recovery and peace - and civil society are all linked.
Zelensky’s Diplomatic Offensive - Carnegie Europe (https://t.co/3xwhiHtGTl).

[Olga Onuch (Онух) @oonuch]

"Ukraine's path to the EU remains unwavering despite challenges. Public support for EU integration has grown since 2014. #Ukraine #EU #Integration"

My new @Carnegie_Europe piece

https://t.co/N5C21l8BSg

Data collected with teams based at @uomsoss @UoMNews @McrJMCE @GwendolynSasse @IBIFUkraine @MOBILISEproject @zois @Politics_Oxford @VolodymyrKulyk4 @IERES_GWU @ponars
please share

[Carnegie Europe @Carnegie_Europe]

🇺🇦 | #Ukraine's recovery & EU accession tend to be talked about as if they constitute one overarching process.

But while EU accession has a clear endpoint & a defined path, the road to recovery depends on a wide set of factors, writes @GwendolynSasse.

https://t.co/yva9XuxpMG

[Olga Onuch (Онух) @oonuch]

""Key milestones for Ukraine's EU journey include the Association Agreement and EU candidate status. The road ahead is tough but clear. #UkraineEU #EUEnlargement"

My new @Carnegie_Europe piece

https://t.co/eoxZhpLiOm

[Carnegie Europe @Carnegie_Europe]

Ukraine's drive to enter the EU is rooted in a perception of the bloc as a community of shared values & democratic principles.

When Ukrainians rallied around democracy, they also rallied around the idea that 🇺🇦's place is in the EU.

Read @oonuch's latest https://t.co/St1ffKbpR6

[Olga Onuch (Онух) @oonuch]

"Despite Russian aggression, Ukraine's resolve to join the EU has only strengthened. Public backing is at an all-time high. #Ukraine #Russia #EU"

https://t.co/eoxZhpLiOm

[MOBILISE (3yr ORA Funded Large Grant Project) @MOBILISEproject]

FRESH DATA ALERT "@mobiliseproject May/June 2024 Survey of the Ukrainian Population"

70% of Ukrainians agree Zelenskyy should continue as president during martial law. Support ranges from 65% in the East to 74% in the South. #Ukraine #Zelenskyy #MartialLaw

[Olga Onuch (Онух) @oonuch]

A 🧵ON NEW POLLING DATA FROM UKRAINE May/June 2024 @MOBILISEproject

70% of Ukrainians agree Zelenskyy should continue as president during martial law. Support ranges from 65% in the East to 74% in the South.

Full report with analysis here: https://t.co/aLndpyq7SY