Mark Obrinsky

[Mark Obrinsky @MObrinsky]

@FairweatherPhD In the last 4 years, the number of completed housing units in the US is:
3.9 million single-family; 1.6 million multifamily (2+); 5.5 million total.
Presumably the point is to build 3 million more than we otherwise would have. Looking forward to seeing the proposal.

[Mark Obrinsky @MObrinsky]

@PEWilliams_ In this same vein, folks might want to check out the wonderful podcast If Books Could Kill. (Disclaimer: I have no connection whatsoever with the podcast; just an interested listener.)

[Mark Obrinsky @MObrinsky]

@EvanMGlass Exactly. Not sure why this seems so hard to understand.

[Jay Parsons @jayparsons]

When you build "luxury" new apartments in big numbers, the influx of supply puts downward pressure on rents at all price points -- even in the lowest-priced Class C rentals. Here's evidence of that happening right now:

There are 12 U.S. markets where Class C rents are falling at least 6% YoY. What is the common denominator? You guessed it: Supply. All 12 have supply expansion rates ABOVE the U.S. average.

There's no demand issue in any of these 12 markets. They're all among the absorption leaders nationally -- places like Austin, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Atlanta and Raleigh/Durham, Boise, etc. But they all have a lot of new supply.

Simply put: Supply is doing what it's supposed to do when we build A LOT of apartments. It's a process academics call "filtering." New pricey apartments are pulling up higher-income renters out of moderately priced Class B units, which in turn cut rents to lure Class C renters, and on down the line it goes.

Less anyone still in doubt, here's another factoid: Where are Class C rents growing most? You guessed it (I hope!) -- in markets with little new supply. Class C rent growth topped 5% in 18 of the nation's 150 largest metro areas, and nearly all of them have limited new apartment supply.

Most new construction tends to be Class A "luxury" because that's what pencils out due to high cost of everything from land to labor to materials to impact fees to insurance to taxes, etc.

So critics will say: "We don't need more luxury apartments!"

Yes, you do. Because when you build "luxury" apartments at scale, you will put downward pressure on rents at all price points.

Spread the word.

[Peter Tulip @peter_tulip]

The left-NIMBY take applied to food:

“People are starving; we need more food.”

“So let’s stop banning grocery stores.”

“Unacceptable. Stop shilling for private, *for-profit* food suppliers.”

(h/t @cafreiman)

https://t.co/1vOFluxoiS .

[Mark Obrinsky @MObrinsky]

@Claudia_Sahm Barry Ritholtz in 2021: “Why Does Anyone Care What Lawrence Summers Thinks?”
and he brings the goods: https://t.co/3hB5IVTqy0

[Mark Obrinsky @MObrinsky]

This should be obvious. Not sure why it isn't...

[Julia Coronado @jc_econ]

I just don't understand this perspective--policy should be flexible over the cycle especially once you are in a good range:

*BOSTIC: WORST OUTCOME WOULD BE TO CUT RATES THEN HAVE TO RAISE

[Mark Obrinsky @MObrinsky]

@peter_tulip Ah, okay. That was the question, not the summary of how economists answered. Thanks.

[Mark Obrinsky @MObrinsky]

@peter_tulip I'm assuming the language in the original is misstated (or maybe clumsy). Local ordinances have NOT had a positive impact...

[Mark Obrinsky @MObrinsky]

Maybe the word is finally getting out...

[Skanda Amarnath @IrvingSwisher]

As heretical as it might be to say, there's a growing risk that Fed rate hikes risk *stoking* higher rent inflation in 2025, 2026, and 2027

How? The Fed's actions are currently reducing building permits for multifamily rental supply. Exacerbates structural housing shortage

[Mark Obrinsky @MObrinsky]

Good for Pew for connecting the dots. Homelessness rises when rents rise -- and rents rise when you don't build housing.

[The Pew Trusts @pewtrusts]

NEW: Data illustrates how housing costs drive homelessness levels.

📈 As rents rise, so does homelessness.

Fortunately, in regions like Minneapolis and Houston that added housing and kept rent growth low, homelessness dropped: https://t.co/mzYcJgAmmp

[Mark Obrinsky @MObrinsky]

@jayparsons It works in New Zealand too: https://t.co/wQfAxZIudK

[Greater Greater Washington @ggwash]

Much ado about nothing: Despite complaints, preliminary data from @MDSHA indicates the Old Georgetown Road bike lanes have made the street safer with little to no impact on automobile travel times: https://t.co/a30mxmHliT

[Mark Obrinsky @MObrinsky]

@JosephPolitano That would be true if the data were accurate. Not clear that’s true, at least for multifamily:

[Jay Parsons @jayparsons]

The Census multifamily starts data appears to still be inflated even after its June release today + May downward revisions.

We compared Census starts to private sector data, & what jumps out is:

1) Census understated starts from 2021-22.
2) Census overstating starts in 2023.🧵

[Mark Obrinsky @MObrinsky]

"Inflation is now mostly a housing issue." Yes.
https://t.co/BvjOIQGe6W

[Mark Obrinsky @MObrinsky]

Good data, charts, and analysis from @AdamPagnucco. Self-image of many Montgomery County Marylanders a lot different than the reality.

[Adam Pagnucco @AdamPagnucco]

https://t.co/9gI222teZZ

[Mark Obrinsky @MObrinsky]

@ritholtz Well sure, what do you expect? Check out first episode of podcast If Books Could Kill.

[Mark Obrinsky @MObrinsky]

@LizAnnSonders @dpelletiere Yes, but: Multifamily completions remain stuck around 350k as constructions times lengthen.

[Mark Obrinsky @MObrinsky]

Great thread—read the whole thing.

(And for data nerds: yes, HVS isn’t the best data source even apart from covid-related collection issues, but most of us believe it gets the trends well enough. So Jay’s points are well-taken.)

[Jay Parsons @jayparsons]

What percentage of Americans do you think are aware that the U.S. homeownership rate is:

1) ABOVE the long-term average, and

2) at the second-highest rate on record outside of the late '90s through mid-2000s period leading up to the housing bubble and Great Financial Crisis?🧵

[Mark Obrinsky @MObrinsky]

@actfortransit Clearly the problem is the bike lanes! If they would turn those back into car lanes I’ll bet the cars could zoom along at, what, maybe 8 mph?