MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

delusions of grandeur suit me just fine. #economy, #investing, #cricket & baba to a 9 year old angel

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

People of all ages, colour, creed & religion united to speak for justice & freedom

#freepalestine

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

Jaecoo on Edgware road

Will the upcoming budget continue GST concessions on electric/hybrid PHEVs?

#NCPL #NPL #SAZEW #PSX #KSE100

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

Thx for having me on @KhizarKahloon

As always a pleasure to speak with you!

[The Kahloon Podcast @KahloonPodcast]

The wait is over.

Episode 86 is live. Pakistan's Stock Market, Bull Run or Bear Trap?

Mustafa Pasha, CFA, ED & CIO of Lakson Investments, joins for a masterclass on macros, sectors and top stock picks for 2026. @MP4FMPK

Watch here: https://t.co/XxNIZQCjYj

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

@AmerSharifOFCL Pahlay hi boldaytay bhai its a loss making corporate 😀

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

@AmerSharifOFCL Why pay higher tax on profit on debt when you can get the same underlying risk profile (bank deposit/tbill) with an investment in a money market fund? Tax will be much lower & the money can be withdrawn at any point w/o penalty (that may apply on a bank deposit).

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

@afahim A lot of HR depts do it in my experience especially in financial services but again you cant force them to only request.

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

If salaried, speak to HR and provide details of:

VPS investment
Advance tax on internet/credit card etc
Charitable donations (recognised)

HR can then adjust tax on salary (but are not required to) and you can avoid refund delays.

Section 149(1) + rule 42 of the ITO

[Amer Sharif @AmerSharifOFCL]

If you are a salaried person in Pakistan, your taxes are deducted at many different points during the year, and each deduction is properly recorded in the FBR system. For example:

Monthly salary: Your employer deducts withholding tax every month and deposits it directly with the government under section 149.

Vehicle token Taxes: These taxes are paid through proper challans and are fully traceable and relevant collecting authority deposits the same into Govt treasury under section 231B/234.

Utility bills: Electricity, mobile, telephone, and internet bills include withholding taxes that are automatically deducted and reported/deposited to FBR under different sections of income tax ordinance.

Foreign transactions: Advance tax under section 236Y is also deducted at source. And there are no of other withholding tax transactions.

Since all these taxes are collected in advance, submitted electronically, and in most cases appear in the filer’s IRIS account with proper CPR numbers, the government already knows exactly how much tax a salaried person has paid. Their own system verifies everything.

Because of this, there should be no reason to delay refunds or force taxpayers through long application submission procedures—especially when salary is the only source of income. The system already holds all the data; it simply needs to match the tax paid with the actual tax due and automatically issue the refund to the bank account provided in the taxpayer’s FBR profile—just like many other countries do.

But in Pakistan, instead of automatic refunds, taxpayers still have to file separate refund applications, wait for months or even years, and deal with unnecessary hurdles. With such a complete and data-rich system already in place, what we truly need now is transparency, automation, and an efficient refund mechanism, so taxpayers receive what is rightfully theirs without delays.
@FBRSpokesperson @CMShehbaz Let’s start this year by implementing automatic refunds for salaried individuals whose only source of income is salary, and then gradually expand it to everyone.

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

@ravijagasia HR isnt required to adjust the taxes but they can under the law (as i understand it as a non tax person).

Isnt adjusting at source better than paying the tax, filing after a year & then waiting to get a refund?

Time value of money bhi kuch cheez hoti hay

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

@ednistrator 500K annual tax means effective rate is in the range of 13-14%.

So if you invest 750K in VPS that should save you about 100K in taxes

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

@najam_ali Boss, total revenue in FY25 was 18T (12.7 tax + 5.3 non tax). After provincial transfer it was 9.9T. Int exp was 8.9T.

Comparing just tax collection to int exp is incomplete as sbp profit is part of the gov’s borrowing structure.

But I agree with you that it’s way too high!

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

There is no doubt the rapid rise in debt is alarming given the narrow revenue base. A fiscal reset is definitely required.

However its better calculate interest expense net of sbp profit given that ~13 trillion in gov borrowing is financed at a cost of 1% or less through OMOs.

[Najam Ali @najam_ali]

OUR FISCAL NIGHTMARE FROM MICHAEL BURRY’S LENS

Michael Burry warned:
The moment your interest payments exceed tax revenue, your country becomes a Ponzi scheme.

Welcome to FY26:

- Federal interest payments: Rs 8.3–8.8 trillion
- Total federal net revenue (after NFC): Rs 7.5–8.0 trillion

Let that sink in:
We can’t even pay interest without borrowing more.

The federal government is now:
- Borrowing to pay interest
- Borrowing to run the state
- Borrowing to survive

It is not sustainable.

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

@BaigShayan1234 Your welcome!

Net interest expense at 6 trillion is still too high but yes this a better way to look at it.

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

@pak_investor OMOs are of two types: mop up and injection. The mop up is to drain liquidity while the injection is to add liquidity.

Gov borrowing directly from the SBP isnt allowed so instead the SBP lends to banks (thru OMO injections) who in turn lend to the gov thru tbill/pib auctions.

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

Index broke out of the 1M ascending triangle & breached the descending trendline from previous highs.

Volumes are tepid though & the follow through day is a Fri during rollover week.

Will the IMF tranche & circular debt payment trigger momentum?

#KSE100

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

Market outlook with @shuja_qureshi & Shahbaz on @NuktaBusiness

https://t.co/uTBBGf0eHu

#PSX #KSE100

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

@Haider_121812 Jameel sb wudnt do that 😄

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

FX reserves yet to feel the impact of a higher trade deficit during Jul to Oct & a 500 mn eurobond payment in Sep.

Next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether we have inflows to offset higher imports.

#SBP #PSX #KSE100

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

A trade deficit in itself means nothing.

As long as imports are contributing to future productivity & you can fund the gap with mostly non debt dollars.

If there are no inflows to offset higher import payments then reserves should feel the impact during Nov.

2/3

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

@AhsanYChawla So far yes remittances are enough to bridge the goods deficit, unfortunately we also run a services & primary income deficit of around 1 billion per month. That has to be financed too.

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

@ammarnadeem2662 Yes pbs and sbp data is calculated differently, this is why I was talking about reserves rather than the CAD.

If we assume payments against imports with a 4-8 week lag then reserves should drop during Nov.

If reserves arent dropping then there are inflows we dont know about.

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

The trade deficit is up 38% YoY (3.5 bn) during 4MFY26 to 12.6 bn.

However SBP reserves are stable at 14.5 bn & overall reserves are up 400 mn b/w June & Oct.

We also paid off a 500 mn eurobond in Sep.

Gov external debt was stable till Aug at 23.4 trillion

1/3

[MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK]

@IsaaccAdee44616 @StutterFreak ?