MSTR Prophet

[MSTR Prophet @MSTR_Prophet]

@dundatt1989 @PawnOn7thRank @Bank__28 @PeterSchiff @natbrunell @Strategy @phongle @saylor @PrevalonEnergy It’s not a business model? Please share your business model you have employed at your company for clarity.

[MSTR Prophet @MSTR_Prophet]

You articulated this well Nic.

🫡

[Nicolas Cole 🚢👻 @Nicolascole77]

My college degree is in fiction writing and I can't believe I understand this stuff better than "financial experts."

$MSTR is not "levered bitcoin." And if you think that's all it is, then you don't understand network effects.

MSTR is a finance company, built on a network (Bitcoin), with various financial products ($STRC) that provide on-ramps to the Bitcoin network (aka: services!) to different tranches of buyers who can't buy and hold Bitcoin otherwise (ex: family offices, public companies, etc.), allowing them to grow the network & their category-dominating position on said network.

And for some reason, Strategy being built on the Bitcoin network makes people's brains melt. But companies are built on networks every single day. Networks where the ENTIRE VALUE is predicated on "more people using the network tomorrow."

• If you have ever built an app on Facebook, you were building on the Facebook network.

• If you have ever built an another company's API, you were building a company on that other company's network.

• Even the AI trade today... if you're building a startup that depends on a large company running a NETWORK of data centers, you are building on that network.

And each network, in and of itself (aside from capex & hard asset value, which is the minority of the value) only has value if MORE PEOPLE USE IT. The majority of Facebook's value, for example, was not and is not "the advertising product." It's the network.

So when people say, "Bitcoin has no value," that just means they don't understand network effects—and their compounding value, when trending in a positive direction. And when they say, "Strategy is just levered Bitcoin and is worthless," that just means they don't understand the company's category-dominating position on that network.

That's point A.

Point B:

For some reason, mainstream financial media can't wrap their head the fact that @Strategy is scaling just like every other company in the world.

Entrepreneurship 101 = when you scale, typically when revenue and profit goes up... your profit margin goes down (either marginally, or sometimes, a lot).

But that's OK because you're still up massively in terms of net profit.

As the adage goes: would you rather own 100% of a grape, or 10% of a watermelon?

So *if* Strategy has to raise the $STRC dividend, a helpful reframe is just: "to achieve more scale, profit margin goes down slightly."

...but that's what happens with every company, in every industry, all the time, forever.

No, they're not going to run out of cash—they have $50B+ of liquid assets (Bitcoin).

No, they aren't going to be put in a position where they "can't raise more money." If you believe the Bitcoin network has compounding value (just like every other network-based technology, ever), Strategy can raise infinite money.

And no, increasing the dividend doesn't mean the company is dead. It means the company is scaling.

It blows my mind people point to $MSTR being down on the year, but fail to realize the company has transformed $500M in cash into $50B+ in cash-equivalent assets in 5 years.

Did you fail math?

Cuz I did, and even I can see that's a very net-positive outcome.

[Zaid 🟧 @zaidlikesmstr]

@Johndnolan4884 🫡🧡

[MSTR Prophet @MSTR_Prophet]

@ColorCombos @PunterJeff Right? Everyone settle down now.

[MSTR Prophet @MSTR_Prophet]

No argument there. No investment should be labeled as risk free with zero volatility. That includes gold and t-bills.

There is always risk. Even in a bank savings account. WaMu, Wachovia, Silvergate, etc.

Retiring a portion of a zero coupon convert was puzzling to me as well. Time will tell. The messaging as to “why” is missing. Still forming my opinion on that point.

[MSTR Prophet @MSTR_Prophet]

Haha! No worries there Ross. Ironically, it is times like this where STRC feels better than riding the bitcoin volatility rollercoaster.

We are hardwired to fear the drops and love the highs. We need the rainy days. Where the sun always shines, it is usually a desert.

I am quite impressed with how well SATA and STRC are holding up. Someone in our forum said “ buying below par is a blessing if you don’t think it’s collapsing”.

Everyone is a gangster when the bull is running. Takes different mojo to dollar cost average in a bear market.

[MSTR Prophet @MSTR_Prophet]

@QuoteJenks2 @itswesleydavid @natbrunell @Strategy @Strive @PunterJeff @PrevalonEnergy That is an excellent point ACE.

[MSTR Prophet @MSTR_Prophet]

Hey Shane. If the STRC price falls below par, the effective yield would increase until it reaches a point of market equilibrium. Don’t get me wrong, I am not disagreeing with your point. There are a few more nuanced factors to consider (as with most things in life and business).

It could be said that non-payment of the dividend would have the effect you are referencing, not necessarily selling BTC.

Realistically, the fear of dividend nonpayment drives the price more so than actual missed dividend payments. This would appear to be the logic whenever the price trades between 95 and 100 a share.

A missed dividend payment would attract a different type of value investor. Price would likely fall to $70-$80 a share, but it would also reach an equilibrium floor at that point as a new type of investor looks for distressed investments, and can stomach the risk.

@Bitpain has a point that is valid as well. It could be argued that STRC investors are agnostic to the buying and selling of bitcoin. As long as their dividends are arriving on time and they feel comfortable that they will continue to do so the most likely would not close their positions in STRC.

Common share holders would be flight prone, but again, value investors would support the price at a slightly negative mNAV.

Appreciate your position on the topic and thank you for the dialogue.

[MSTR Prophet @MSTR_Prophet]

@mikewmunz I was drawing the same chart earlier today Mike.

The quarterly dividends of the other three preferred stocks probably factor in as well. They all go ex-dividend the same day as STRC.

[MSTR Prophet @MSTR_Prophet]

@Prepper_esquire @natbrunell I have only been active on X for a couple of months. Glad you enjoyed the pod!

[Crypto Tice @CryptoTice_]

UNREAL:

Vanguard just bought $680,000,000 of $MSTR.
$12,000,000,000,000 in assets.

The most conservative money on Wall Street.

Not a hedge fund chasing pumps.
Not retail buying hype.

The most boring. Careful.
Long-term money in existence.

Quietly front-running a structural shift.

$MSTR isn't a stock.
It's a Bitcoin proxy.

And when $12,000,000,000,000 in conservative capital starts moving.

You stop watching headlines.
You watch the flows.

The flows just moved.

[MSTR Prophet @MSTR_Prophet]

@PivotWithHer @wallstengine 🙏🏼

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

$NXT is acquiring Prevalon Energy for up to $365M, moving deeper into battery storage and AI data center power infrastructure.

Prevalon has deployed 6+ GWh of BESS globally and has 1.3 GW of firm supply contracts tied to AI and hyperscaler data center deployments.

Nextpower also raised FY27 guidance, now seeing revenue of $4.0B to $4.4B and adjusted EBITDA of $845M to $930M.

[MSTR Prophet @MSTR_Prophet]

@RoaringRagnar Exactly.

[MSTR Prophet @MSTR_Prophet]

I am seeing plenty of discussion about how SATA could be a competing product with STRC.

I would advocate that there are two very different types of investors to pick between these two products at volume. And there is more than enough room out there for them both to coexist. Full disclosure, I hold both.

It benefits Strategy if Strive can establish a daily structural buy for BTC. The stronger these companies become, the more BTC they can buy. Once they are greater than 5% of the ADV of bitcoin, the game will change.

It benefits Strive if Strategy can keep a floor under the BTC price via STRC. Both of these companies have excellent balance sheets and are run by excellent management teams.

It is an amazing dynamic to see in action where these two companies are able to make huge BTC acquisitions in this bear market.

[MSTR Prophet @MSTR_Prophet]

Correction….there is a 73% chance he sells bitcoin again. They sold 8000 shares in Dec of 2022 for tax loss harvesting. Bought them right back immediately since there are no wash trade rules for bitcoin.

He will sell a token amount just to demonstrate that he will “part with that capital” to address the S&P requirements to achieve an investment grade credit rating.

[MSTR Prophet @MSTR_Prophet]

@BTCoptioneer Saylor wants Strive to succeed. ASST buying BTC along side Strategy buying BTC is mutually beneficial. The mgmt at Strive are basically an advertising group for MSTR via their True North podcast.

[MSTR Prophet @MSTR_Prophet]

ASST has the asymmetric upside opportunity that MSTR had in 2020 with one exception. ASST jumped past the trial and error that Strategy worked through and went right to the perfect capital raise methodology with SATA.

Clearly, I am a Strategy bull. I see real growth opportunity in ASST. As MSTR and ASST are successful independently, they improve each other’s balance sheet via the structural permanent bid to buy BTC.

Starting June 16, SATA will become a game changer.

[MSTR Prophet @MSTR_Prophet]

@CJ_Bitcoin All CFO’s like to see balance sheet improvements like this. We tip our hat to the team at Strategy. You have our full support.