M Swordsman

Swing and Scalp trader: $AMD $NVDA $IREN $CIFR $TSLA $TE $ATEN $FIVN

[M Swordsman @MSwordsman2ax]

@JosephFGI Still not saying what’s going well for $IREN. $IREN down 50% from ATH. Which i believe is worse than 30%.

[M Swordsman @MSwordsman2ax]

At what price point do the majority of $IREN Bulls posting $100 begin to fade into the background? As a long term holder, this please stop setting stupid price targets. If IREN finishes year $50 or better? Consider yourself lucky. Management and Alpha tied to Mgmt. say 2027…

[M Swordsman @MSwordsman2ax]

@JosephFGI What is good here is the question. If all the above was 100%? Would it be halved? Nope.

[Stock Talk @stocktalkweekly]

China's new frontier AI lab 'Moonshot' released its flagship 'Kimi K3' model today, which is initially benchmarking as competitive with Anthropic, OpenAI & xAI's newest models.

'Moonshot' is valued at just $31.5 billion. Anthropic & OpenAI are prospectively being valued north of $1 trillion, each...

For those who are wondering why this rattled AI-related markets today, even in spite of a massive unwind over the past month, the logic is straightforward:

- Hundreds of billions of dollars of capex & spending commitments are intimately tied to the U.S. frontier labs (Anthropic, OpenAI & xAI namely)

- Capex has been the lifeblood of the AI trade. The U.S. semiconductor complex and the 2nd order datacenter buildout beneficiaries, including neoclouds & power companies & construction companies and many others at the periphery, have seen their stocks rerate higher on the anticipation that this capex will flow to their top & bottom lines.

- Cheap, but competitive, Chinese models trained at a fraction of the cost of their U.S. peer-models, produced by firms who are valued at a fraction of their U.S. peers, who are offering usage/tokens at a fraction of the cost, pose the risk of "commoditization of intelligence". While this is certainly a tailwind for the proliferation of AI usage across industries, it poses a risk to the U.S. model of spending & committing massive amounts of capital to train & deploy new AI models.

- If open-weight, cheaper, competitive models lead to significant compression in the pricing power for U.S. frontier labs, what impact does this have on the enormous spending commitments they have made in the near-future, and what 2nd order impacts does that have on the companies that are due to receive, benefit from, or deploy that capex?

- As a hedge to this argument, it is also very true that increased usage of AI will require even more spending on inference capacity (Kimi K3 is a very big model at 2-3 trillion parameters, the biggest to ever come out of China), which could offset some of the compute-related risk in the training portion of this equation. The question is how does the calculus change if the training front-end of this equation has to be reworked entirely. It may also plant seeds for the conversation of improving inference efficiency through innovation (note that the efficiency through innovation conversation had already begun to emerge on an entirely different front, with memory stocks, several weeks ago).

- When we are in momentum-driven periods with inordinate amounts of spending -- spending that is beginning to jeopardize the profitability of the most valuable companies in history, sometimes all it takes is a small seed of doubt to change the expectations & dynamics & internal balance-sheet considerations, and that seed of doubt can have domino effects.

- While eerily similar to 'Deepseek', that model was not as competitive, and also that conversation happened at a time when Nvidia was the lifeblood of the AI trade, and the real question at the time was moreso whether or not they were using Nvidia's most cutting-edge chips, and had little to do with the commoditization of intelligence issue. Shortly after the "Deepseek moment", tariffs emerged and overshadowed it as a much more real & present threat to the markets & the economy. We moved on rather quickly, and to an extent, began whistling past the graveyard, proverbially speaking.

To be abundantly clear before the AI bulls unleash on me in the comments: I'm not an AI bear, at all. I've been long AI stocks for almost the entirety of the past 3 years. I am still long many of them. This is just legitimate food for thought about the capital-equation for the U.S. AI industry. Digestion is warranted. I'm still navigating this issue, and I'm more than happy to hear & debate counterpoints on the implications and possibilities from any & all.

[M Swordsman @MSwordsman2ax]

just like the old days...end of day scalp on $IREN +11% WIN.

[M Swordsman @MSwordsman2ax]

@wave3trades @YodaStockInvest What TA leads you to believe it looks good. I am no TA savant but Moving Averages, Ichi Could on Daily & Weekly are nasty. RSI Daily in 30s and Weekly in 40s. Even volume shelf in low/mid 40s will now provide resistance.

[M Swordsman @MSwordsman2ax]

@YodaStockInvest "potential" is all the Queen has now. Missed/Downgraded ARR...no deals. Lowered expectation by management via @Agrippa_Inv. Fingers crossed 2027 it perks up. With the way market "pre-prices" in deals? A deal with Anthropic in this environment? See $CLSK 1 year chart.

[M Swordsman @MSwordsman2ax]

@NighthawkTradez @mikealfred Saw what you did here. Learning from Alfred I see! You didn’t mention which year. Like his 12/2024 prediction of $CLSK $25 by “EOY.”

[M Swordsman @MSwordsman2ax]

Hopped back into CRNC calls: 10C 11/20 = $1.75

[M Swordsman @MSwordsman2ax]

@LandoInvests or just pissed off at the overall markets.

[M Swordsman @MSwordsman2ax]

Sold 7/24 $IREN 28P .1331 Delta = $0.56. Insanity!!!

[M Swordsman @MSwordsman2ax]

@LEADER_TRADING the freaking Daily RSI is still on 30s!

[M Swordsman @MSwordsman2ax]

@CryptoGhosty333 It will be Yellowtail soon for Mikey.

[M Swordsman @MSwordsman2ax]

@PaladinOfEurope Reverse Squeeze!

[M Swordsman @MSwordsman2ax]

@AndyDTrades Dude! I was lucky this time! My TA expertise is usually dreadful. I do agree with the $30-31 floor. Goes any lower? I am buying big.

[M Swordsman @MSwordsman2ax]

@AlphaTrader00 @BitcoinAIGuy This ⬆️

[M Swordsman @MSwordsman2ax]

$IREN my sweet Queen? Will you now kiss <$30? If so, I will become a buyer of $IREN & $IRE. @danroberts0101 promises 2027 is the year. Shame he can't delete his commentary like @mikealfred 's deletes his X posts. How close am I to seeing the first Class Action hit the newswire?

[M Swordsman @MSwordsman2ax]

@AndyDTrades $35 tickled…

[M Swordsman @MSwordsman2ax]

@JosephFGI I think @Agrippa_Inv would disagree. At least read his post.