MTW Research

Economic Insight & Intelligence, DIY Market, Construction Market, Building Products & Electrical Research Reports, News & Mailing Lists.

[MTW Research @MTWResearch]

5% UK Inflation by December 2026? The Iran Shock Impact on UK CPI

Current position: UK CPI at 3.0% y/y (Feb print). March data (due 22 April) will show the first clear energy-driven leg-up.

Core drivers verified:
• Oil/tanker shock (late-Feb Iran conflict + Hormuz disruption): UK marginal delivered costs confirmed in $130–150/bbl range
• Indirect channels: haulage rates +6–10%, manufacturing PPI (plastics/chemicals) +5–10%
• Fertiliser shock: nitrogen prices up 30–39% (AN £521–530/t, granular urea £631/t). UK imports ~60% of needs

The fertiliser spike will feed directly into 2026 harvest costs and hit retail food prices from Q4.

Quantified pass-through to CPI (food = 8.7% basket weight):
• Direct energy/petrol: +0.5–0.8pp
• Indirect transport/contractors/manufacturing: +0.7–1.2pp
• Fertiliser → domestic food production: +1.2–2.1pp
→ Total uplift vs pre-shock path: +2.4–4.1pp by year-end

Revised forecast:
Dec 2026 CPI: 3.8–4.5% (central case ~4.1%)
Base case calc: pre-shock path ~2.0% + 3.1pp uplift
(energy 0.6 + indirect 0.9 + fertiliser 1.6)
Food inflation component: 5.5–7.5%

Bottom line: The combined oil + freight + fertiliser shock has turned 2026 into a sticky 4%+ regime through autumn/winter — not the clean disinflation previously expected.

5% inflation by December is now a credible ~35% probability risk.

[MTW Research @MTWResearch]

Residential refurbishment strengthens in Dec 2025 with +6.4% YoY growth. Rolling 12 month activity is now up +0.5%, boosting optimism for DIY & residential RMI suppliers.

[MTW Research @MTWResearch]

Commercial refurbishment activity sees rapid downturn in Nov & Dec 2025 with -0.6% and -1.2% declines. Rolling 12 month commercial RMI activity now negative for the first time since June 2024.

[MTW Research @MTWResearch]

Housebuilding completions decelerate in Q4... declining -4.6% year on year in December 2025 after -4.2% YoY fall in November.

[MTW Research @MTWResearch]

2025 was a challenging year for many building & home improvement suppliers. However, one sector performing reasonably well despite the headwinds was the UK Facilities Management market... More at https://t.co/3AUJPWZNao

[MTW Research @MTWResearch]

The 2025 Showers Market report from MTW sees healthier trading ahead... https://t.co/mrFNpoELWK

[Cleaning&Maintenance @CleaningMag]

£3 billion sales boost for FM market in 2022 – report
https://t.co/vElCrVoKwH

[MTW Research @MTWResearch]

£3bn sales uplift for FM market in 2022 https://t.co/Wuoehcou3d via @fmjtoday

[MTW Research @MTWResearch]

2022 FM Market Trends are challenging but positive according to MTW's new FM Market Report 2022, with a £3 billion sales boost coming soon. Get the new report here:- https://t.co/prA3zWAO5U

[Forestry Journal @Forestry_UK]

The sector's value could rise by £70m this year alone 🤯

https://t.co/IybGUyI0JX

[MTW Research @MTWResearch]

Timber frame house building market could hit '£1bn one day', report claims https://t.co/ost84TwZzg

[#TimeForTimber @TimeForTimber]

Offsite timber frame construction could be the solution for housebuilders and MTW Research forecasts a rapid rise in timber frame buildings across the residential and commercial sectors in 2022. https://t.co/6eAm981wYE

[PBC Today @PBC_Today]

The #timber frame #homes UK market is set to rise by £70m in 2022, according to the latest report by MTW research https://t.co/7ija9CG1A2

[Development Finance @dftoday]

4) Timber frame housebuilding is expected to see a £70m increase this year, according to the latest study from @MTWResearch. Read more here: https://t.co/VEQ2Ovbgst

[ConstructUK @_ConstructUK]

Timber Frame Market Set For £70 Million Boost in 2022.

The new Timber Frame Market report from @MTWResearch has found that timber frame house building in the UK is set to rise by some £70 million in 2022.

https://t.co/C0gzcdWLSI

[MTW Research @MTWResearch]

Timber Frame Market £70m Boost in 2022, new report finds closed panel timber frame share growing as timber house building sees double digit growth to 2026. More at https://t.co/JxlW6KAqMu

[Kitchens & Bathrooms News @kandbnews]

NEWS: While the impact of Covid-19 on the shower market will exceed £22 million in lost sales, “strong” demand will provide an £85 million sales boost by 2024, reports @MTWResearch
https://t.co/WuKFYDFylJ
#bathroom #Retail #Insights

[HVP Magazine @HVPmag]

Shower market in line for £85 million boost by 2024, says new @MTWResearch report
https://t.co/7q9o00YKgt

[MTW Research @MTWResearch]

MTW Research's new 280 page Shower Market Trends Report 2020 published Dec 2020 forecasts £85m sales boost by 2024, despite Covid-19 impact reducing sales by £22m. More from https://t.co/a9LfCXDmDe

[MTW Research @MTWResearch]

@guardian If you'd like to contribute to our next pet market report - send us your comments and pictures. What do you buy for your pet? What clothes do you buy for them? How much do you spend on them? Pet Xmas presents this year? Send your thoughts to [email protected]