Massimiliano Tommesani

Voglio scendere

[Birth Gauge @BirthGauge]

The DHS survey puts the TFR of the Republic of Congo at 3.5 children per woman in 2023-25 (Urban 3.0, Rural 5.3), down from 5.1 13 years earlier.
The Republic of Congo has now one of the lowest TFRs in Subsaharan Africa. With more than half of its population living in Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire, it is also one of the most urbanized countries in Africa.

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

NEW: The Economist reported on July 23 on reports that PLA soldiers have undergone combat training at a Russian military complex. The PLA is likely aiming to improve its ability to conduct unmanned systems warfare and operate in a drone-saturated environment. The PLA is unlikely to wholly adopt what it learns from the Russian military’s experience and instead will likely develop its own methods of adapting to modern warfare. (1/2)

Other Key Takeaways:

The PLAN has likely improved its anti-surface warfare capabilities. The PLAN may seek to develop an asymmetric advantage with its anti-ship missiles to contest sea control beyond the first island chain and ameliorate its other naval combat deficiencies when compared to the US Navy.

Philippine Secretary of Defense Gilbert Teodoro Jr. stated that the Philippines cannot remain neutral in a conflict between the PRC and Taiwan due to the population of Filipino citizens living in Taiwan and the very likely involvement of the Bashi Channel in the scope of the conflict. This statement represents one of the strongest Philippine commitments to Taiwan to date.

[Birth Gauge @BirthGauge]

Ceuta is an interesting case: A Spanish city located on the African mainland. About 40% of its population is Muslim and more than half of all Ceutans have an Arab first name. Until around 2015, the TFR of Ceuta hovered slightly below 2 (being much higher than the Spanish average). By 2024, the TFR has declined steeply to 1.26.

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

NEW: Russian forces conducted a large-scale strike series against Ukraine on the night of July 29 to 30 that featured a particularly large number of missiles and aimed to exploit Ukraine’s shortage of ballistic missile interceptors. (1/2)

Other Key Takeaways:

Russian missile strikes targeted a wide swathe of Ukraine’s deep rear and resulted in high civilian casualties.

Russian forces continue to increase the number of missiles while decreasing the number of drones in strike packages, likely to exploit Ukraine’s shortage of ballistic missile interceptors, while Ukraine’s drone interception rate remains high.

Russia also used at least one North Korean-provided ballistic missile for the first time since Summer 2025 following reported recent North Korean missile deliveries to Russia.

A likely Russian Kh-101 cruise missile crashed in eastern Poland during Russia’s large-scale missile strikes against western Ukraine on the night of July 29 to 30.

Russian missile and drone incursions into NATO territory during Russian strikes on Ukraine appear to be a risk the Kremlin has accepted.

Ukrainian forces are attempting to help NATO defend its airspace and territory during large Russian missile and drone strikes that threaten NATO members.

Ukraine’s continued strike campaign against Wildberries warehouses (the closest Russian equivalent to Amazon) throughout Russia is imposing significant costs on the company’s retailers and consumers.

Russian authorities appear to be focusing on resolving Wildberries’ supply issues affecting ordinary Russians, as opposed to the more pressing issue of protecting the Russian rear against Ukrainian strikes.

Recently appointed Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi is starting to make personnel changes as he takes command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and government continue to undergo personnel shuffles.

Russian forces continued their campaigns against Ukrainian port infrastructure and merchant ships.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian port and oil infrastructure on the night of July 29 to 30.

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances on July 30.

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

NEW: Russia’s superior aviation capabilities are allowing Russia to use glide bomb strikes to enable infantry advances in and near Kostyantynivka. (1/2)

Other Key Takeaways:

Efforts to degrade Russian aviation capabilities likely will deprive Russian forces of an important tactical advantage and help further reduce the tempo of Russian advances.

The situation in and near Kostyantynivka is deteriorating, but Russian forces have not seized the city despite Russian claims. Fighting will likely continue for several weeks as Russian forces try to consolidate the positions they have gained through infiltrations.

The Kremlin denied that Russia is preparing for mobilization, likely to assuage growing public concerns and possibly signal Russian President Vladimir Putin’s desire to continue volunteer recruitment over compulsory reserve call-ups for as long as possible.

Russia is not on track to meet its annual recruitment target for 2026.

The Kremlin continues setting conditions to block Telegram and deny the open internet in Russia, possibly in preparation for compulsory military mobilization.

Russia launched 60 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian energy and industrial infrastructure on July 28 and 29.

Russian forces recently advanced in the Velykyi Burluk and Slovyansk directions.

[Birth Gauge @BirthGauge]

Statistics South Africa puts the TFR for 2026 at 2.12 children per woman, bringing the TFR below replacement level again (which is 2.16) and making South Africa the first country of continental Subsaharan Africa to be below replacement.

[Birth Gauge @BirthGauge]

London is shrinking.

[Birth Gauge @BirthGauge]

With a population decline of 3.2% in 2025 alone, Cuba is for sure the fastest shrinking country on Earth right now. The population collapse is especially pronounced in the capital of Havana, which lost 4.4% of its population in a single year and has almost three times as many deaths as births.

[ISPI @ispionline]

Fino a pochi anni fa, lo #Spazio evocava esplorazione, cooperazione internazionale e progresso scientifico. Oggi è anche un asset strategico: terreno di competizione geopolitica, strumento di controllo militare attraverso i satelliti, fonte di risorse e prestigio.

Chi sono i protagonisti della nuova corsa allo Spazio e quali interessi perseguono? Che impatto ha l'ingresso dei privati? E quale ruolo sta giocando l'#Europa?

Alessia de Luca (@mokarabika), giornalista e responsabile dell'ISPI Daily Focus, ne parla con @emilio_cozzi, giornalista e divulgatore scientifico, nella nuova puntata di The World This Week.

▶️ Guarda la puntata: https://t.co/sGgeJ3h7XY

[Birth Gauge @BirthGauge]

In Q1 2026, England recorded 135,283 births, 0.2% fewer than in 2025. The share of White British births declined to 52.1% (52.6% in Q1 2025).

[Massimiliano Tommesani @MTommesani]

@GermanoDottori Sindrome di Hall9000

[Emanuele Rossi @de_f_t]

📌 EU and China are talking again. The hard part starts now.

🇪🇺🇨🇳Brussels and Beijing have reopened trade talks, but the real challenge lies ahead: turning Europe's de-risking strategy into concrete action.

⚙️ As China ramps up exports and expands its economic leverage, the EU must decide whether dialogue can coexist with a tougher economic security agenda.

👇 My @en_decode39

[Paul Castillo @HEAVY_SLAYER]

At current rates of first births per women 15-44 (TMR), less than half of Black women in the US will have children. Meanwhile the Hispanic TMR has remained stable while Asians have fallen from near universal maternity to the same as the NH white rate.

[RID @RID_Difesa]

🇮🇹 Sono stati approntati i 2 DdL per la Riforma della Difesa promessa da Crosetto

L'aspetto più importante è la previsione dell’aumento degli organici di Esercito, Marina e Aeronautica di 40.000 effettivi entro il 2033 e la costituzione della Riserva
https://t.co/ApZOVUSjt9

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Mohammad Mokhber, adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, effectively says that U.S. strikes have had no effect on Tehran's stance and that Iran will not shift its negotiating position.

Mokhber: "Trump knows nothing but empty talk, and it has no effect on us. Iran will not back down from its position in the negotiations."

[Papa Leone XIV @Pontifex_it]

Quando l’essere umano viene ridotto a una prestazione, a un consumo o a un dato statistico, sorge inevitabilmente una profonda sofferenza interiore. Molti giovani vivono oggi sotto il giogo delle aspettative e del rendimento, immersi in una competitività esasperata che genera ansietà, paura di non essere all’altezza e disorientamento.

[Papa Leone XIV @Pontifex_it]

Le intelligenze artificiali non vivono una esperienza, non possiedono un corpo, non attraversano la gioia e il dolore, non maturano nella relazione, non conoscono dall’interno ciò che significa amore, lavoro, amicizia, responsabilità. Non hanno neppure una coscienza morale: non giudicano il bene e il male, non colgono il senso ultimo delle situazioni, non assumono su di sé il peso delle conseguenze. Possono imitare, possono simulare, ma non capiscono ciò che producono, perché non abitano l’orizzonte affettivo, relazionale e spirituale in cui l’umano diventa sapiente. #MagnificaHumanitas

[Birth Gauge @BirthGauge]

The number of births to UK-born mothers declined by 2.6%, that of EU migrants by 7.8% (thereof -11.3% for the eastern EU-born) and rose by 3.0% for non-EU migrants (Middle Easterners +9.3%, Indians +5.6%, West Africans +5.5% had the biggest increases).

[Birth Gauge @BirthGauge]

585,396 births were counted in England and Wales in 2025, 1.6% fewer than 2024. The TFR declined from 1.41 to 1.39.
34.6% of all births were to foreign-born mothers, up from 33.9% in 2024.

[LegendesCartographie @LegendesCarto]

[DOSSIER] La Défense en Europe
➡️ La carte du jour : La Méditerranée, région stratégique
Entre terrorisme, trafics et rivalités de puissances, la Méditerranée est un espace clé où l’UE et l’Otan renforcent leur coopération.