MVPeav

10,000 sims of every big CFB game, snap by snap. The matchup that decides it, then a public grade, misses included
🦅 GA Southern | 🐘 Bama | 🐝 GT

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

Virginia was the favorite at Florida State. My sims had FSU winning 72% of 10,000 runs, even through the stretch where they trailed by 7. Green is what actually happened. Every big game gets played out like this here, then graded, misses included

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

@CBSSportsCFB @UCLAFootball @oregonfootball @paramountplus Oregon's defense is giving up about 425 yards a game if you take out the Portland State blowout, 104th nationally. I still expect the Ducks to win at home, but mostly because UCLA's run game hasn't seen anybody better than Maryland yet

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

@CFBHome Boise's QB that day was Hank Bachmeier. His little brother Bear is running BYU's offense now and has the Cougars 4-0 with 2 giveaways all season

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

BYU is the favorite in my sims, but Iowa State's night is stopping the run. Hold the Cougars to 127 rushing yards and it's a coin flip. Let them get past 300 and the Cyclones almost never win

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

@UnderdogCFB Nearly 1 in 4 of his targets has gone for 20 plus. Quick-game volume doesn't get you to 7.70, that number is him winning downfield

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

@PeteThamel Easy to forget he was a college legend before any of his Chicago career. Led Pitt in receiving all 3 years as a two-way end who also punted, then became the first tight end ever put in the Hall of Fame. RIP to a giant

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

@UnderdogCFB Georgia's allowed 10 pass plays of 20 plus all season and he has 7 of those catches by himself for Bama. Sticky hands matter a whole lot more when the ball's that far downfield

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

@wyattwendry2023 Big fan of the Wyoming pick. The covers in my runs have the Cowboys near 146 on the ground while SJSU's run game, 3.9 a carry on the year, stays stuck in the mud. Turnovers are the worry, Wyoming's been on the wrong side of those all season

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

@Blain_Crain Forecast keeps improving though, which is quietly a Bama break. The rain was supposed to be the thing that took away the Tide's 10.6 yards a pass attempt and left Georgia's 6.5 a carry untouched. Now it looks like clouds and a stray shower by 6:30 so should be fine to air it out

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

@UnderdogCFB @PeteThamel Moulton only got 13 carries at Michigan and 10 against Ohio State, and Iowa threw it 30-plus times in both, but a first-time starter is the best reason all year to finally feed him. That being said, Washington so far has only allowed about 4 yards per rush

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

@BFWshow Colandrea isn't a mistake guy. 2 picks all year vs 14 TDs, and the Blackshirts have twice Indiana's INTs off a similar slate. Most of Nebraska's came vs Maryland and Michigan State. Indiana got none off Northwestern or Rutgers, and Rutgers has 9 vs everyone else

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

Iowa at Washington looks like a ground game night in my sims. When the Hawkeyes win, they rush for about 122 yards. When they lose, it's Washington getting 134 on the ground

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

@tbhorka Colin Simmons was in on 3 of the 5 sacks of Mateer that day, and two weeks ago he dropped Tennessee's QB 5 times by himself. That Texas defense is the type that opposing QBs have nightmares about

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

@Charlie_Potter Pritchett's the one I'd be keyed in on all game. Russell's thrown his way on 3rd down 3 times all season, 3 catches, 3 first downs, with a 3rd and 20 and a 3rd and 12 in there, it always helps for a young QB to know he's got a reliable safety value to turn to on 3rd down

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

@PeteThamel Washington has 7 picks in 5 games, so this first start is less about the throws he makes than the ones he doesn't, let that defense do the work for them

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

@BruceFeldmanCFB Makes sense he's the type to keep a promise to his mom. Shoulder in 2022, back in 2023, then he played every game the last two years in Lawrence and still went undrafted. Guys like that don't flinch at a bad first start, truly a gritty player a good character kind of guy

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

@OhioTate With the Buckeyes kick at 4:15 and Game 5 that night, Saturday's real question isn't whether the Guardians make the ALCS, it's whether Dad and Pat leave any Modelo for the rest of the city by the 9th inning. My bet is on drinking the city dry

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

@Return_Of_RB That Furman game made me feel alot better. Samuels is a wing playing out of position at point and still took care of the ball while getting buckets, while Holloway and Diaz only misses two real games. The bridge is short and we've got the dogs to carry us there

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

@Barstoolpickem @stoolpresidente @BarstoolBigCat @Return_Of_RB @jmccarthy55 @hen_ease @KevinZuppe NIU is averaging 2.6 a carry, which is why @Return_Of_RB has my favorite play on this card. The Air Force covers in my runs mostly look like NIU stuck under 130 on the ground, and that's roughly where they've lived all year so AF doesnt have to do anything crazy on defense

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

@CollegeFBonX I had this one around 50 and figured the 58 was high. Most points in any FBS game this year, from an Arkansas State offense that walked in averaging 24. Can't even be mad, that was a blast !

[MVPeav @MVPeav]

@Return_Of_RB Saban would break a headset up 56 points on ULM, something in the water in Tuscaloosa makes the best of them coach hard in all situations