Mohamed Dorda

Director at GIG Consulting, Founder of @LibyaDesk & @TheGeopolDesk

[The Geopolitical Desk @thegeopoldesk]

🇮🇷 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻’𝘀 𝗕𝗶𝗴𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗕𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲 𝗜𝘀 𝗡𝗼 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝗥𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝘃𝘀. 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲𝘀

Our latest analysis argues that the defining contest in Tehran is now unfolding within the conservative establishment itself.

At its centre are two competing visions.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and much of the governing establishment view military pressure as a means to secure political gains. War creates leverage; diplomacy locks in the outcome.

Meanwhile, Saeed Jalili, the Paydari Front, and hardliners including Mahmoud Nabavian argue Iran repeatedly cashes in its leverage too early. For them, prolonged confrontation is not a failure of strategy but part of the strategy itself.

This struggle is already playing out across parliament, IRIB, and even in competing interpretations of Mojtaba Khamenei’s authority.

The key takeaway: Iran has not settled on a single strategy towards Washington. Instead, Tehran’s future is being shaped by an internal contest over how power should be used, how wars should end, and ultimately, how the Islamic Republic survives.

Understanding this split is essential to assessing Iran’s future approach to negotiations, regional escalation, and the direction of the regime itself.

Read our latest analysis 👇🏽
https://t.co/sCvzYye3LF

[The Geopolitical Desk @thegeopoldesk]

🇩🇿 We’re expanding our Algeria coverage at The Geopolitical Desk.

As GPD grows, we’ll be delivering a steady stream of analysis on one of North Africa’s most important, yet underreported, markets.

Our latest piece examines why President Tebboune is looking beyond Paris and deepening ties with Madrid and Berlin as Algeria seeks investment, energy partnerships and greater political backing in Europe.

For investors, policymakers and regional observers, it’s a reminder that Algeria’s relationship with Europe is being quietly reshaped.

Sign up to read the article for free and to stay up to date with our Algeria coverage:
🔗 https://t.co/g2jpA4MKho

[Global Insights Group @LibyaDesk]

🇮🇷 One of the reasons we’re building @thegeopoldesk is to move beyond conventional narratives and bring deeper geopolitical insight to the conversation.

GPD’s latest analysis on Iran argues that the country’s most important political contest is no longer between reformists and conservatives, but within the conservative establishment itself.

As the article notes:

“The country’s political elite is no longer divided between reformists and conservatives… Rather, the battle is now raging within the conservative establishment itself.”

Both camps share the same ideological foundations. Their disagreement lies in how Iran should use its leverage, when negotiations serve the state’s interests, and which strategy best protects the survival of the Islamic Republic.

This distinction fundamentally changes how we interpret Tehran’s internal politics, its decision-making process, and its approach toward Washington.

A valuable read for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of Iran and the wider region.
https://t.co/TZZmP66rRu

[The Geopolitical Desk @thegeopoldesk]

🇱🇾 A new actor has quietly entered Libya’s landscape.

In just 7 months, the Khalifa International Foundation (KIF) has gone from a little-known initiative to operating across southern Libya, reaching communities in western Libya, assisting Sudanese refugees in Chad, and exploring regional partnerships beyond Libya’s borders.

More than a humanitarian organisation, KIF offers a glimpse into how the LNA is expanding its influence through development and soft power, particularly in Libya’s strategic south.
https://t.co/inARvelrF6

[The Geopolitical Desk @thegeopoldesk]

🚨BREAKING: Sources tell Geopolitical Desk that LNA Deputy Commander Saddam Haftar is set to arrive in Turkey 🇹🇷 tomorrow for talks with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, before travelling to Italy 🇮🇹 to meet Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

More to follow.

[Global Insights Group @LibyaDesk]

🇮🇶 New Report: Analysing Iraq’s Operation “Dawn Strike”

The arrest of Iraq’s Deputy Minister of Oil for Refining Affairs, Adnan al-Jumaili, and a network of political figures, contractors, and businesspeople has been widely portrayed as a major anti-corruption breakthrough.

However, our latest report argues that the story is far more complex.

Through a detailed stakeholder and asset review, we examine:

🔹 Adnan al-Jumaili – his rise through Iraq’s oil sector, his influence over the Baiji Refinery, and his alleged role within a wider network connecting government contracts, political financing, contractors, and intermediaries.

🔹 The Baiji Refinery – Iraq’s most strategically important refining asset, its historic role as a source of funding for armed groups including al-Qaeda and ISIS, and how control of the refinery evolved into control of one of Iraq’s most valuable political and economic ecosystems.

🔹 Operation “Dawn Strike” – the largest anti-corruption operation targeting Iraq’s refining sector since 2003, including the arrests, asset seizures, and the networks investigators are attempting to dismantle.

Beyond the facts, the report provides a comprehensive assessment of what these arrests actually mean for Iraq’s political economy.

Our analysis finds that the operation is not primarily an effort to curb Iranian influence, as initially suggested by some observers. Instead, it appears focused on dismantling a corruption and patronage network that had become too large, too visible, and politically manageable to target.

We assess that Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has so far concentrated on second and third-tier political actors while avoiding direct confrontation with Iraq’s most powerful political and security centres.

For investors, operators, and stakeholders in Iraq, the key question is not who has been arrested so far, but who the investigation eventually reaches.

The report outlines four future scenarios:

• Containment at the operational level
• Gradual dismantling of the wider network
• Political containment through elite negotiations
• Political escalation reaching Iraq’s most influential power centres

We also provide risk guidance on how the investigation could reshape patronage networks, government contracting, political financing, and the broader operating environment for businesses active in Iraq’s energy sector.

The central conclusion: Iraq’s corruption challenge is not simply about individuals. It is about a political-economic system built around state resources, contracts, and influence networks. Whether “Dawn Strike” represents genuine reform or merely the redistribution of power remains the defining question.

Read the full report her for free.
https://t.co/mjHTGXf2sU

#Iraq #Energy #OilAndGas #PoliticalRisk #RiskIntelligence #DueDiligence #MiddleEast #Geopolitics #GlobalInsightsGroup #IraqEnergy

[The Geopolitical Desk @thegeopoldesk]

🇱🇾 A new credit rating agency has entered the Libyan market.

SANAD, Libya’s first licensed domestic ratings agency, has launched with assessments of the country’s 27 major banks, an important step towards greater transparency, risk pricing, and investor confidence.
https://t.co/YCcSVoU4yI

[The Geopolitical Desk @thegeopoldesk]

🇮🇶 Iraq’s anti-corruption drive has triggered the biggest shake-up of the oil sector since 2003.

But is Operation “Dawn Strike” a genuine reckoning with Iraq’s patronage networks, or a carefully managed crackdown targeting officials while shielding the real power brokers?

Our latest analysis examines who has been arrested, who remains untouched, and what it reveals about the limits of reform in Iraq’s political system.
https://t.co/VebEKZqjLt

[The Geopolitical Desk @thegeopoldesk]

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[Global Insights Group @LibyaDesk]

📍 Every Friday, LIBYA DESK™ delivers the intelligence you need to stay ahead.

Since September 2019, our Weekly Political Risk Report has been the longest-running and most trusted source on Libya, making sense of the week’s major political and security developments and what’s happening behind closed doors.

Subscribers get source-based analysis on Libya’s political process, updates on key institutions, exclusive interviews, and invitations to closed-door discussions with industry leaders and political actors in Libya.

🔹 Subscribe for free to get executive summaries, analyst field notes, and updates from our various country desks.

🔹 Request a one-month free trial for full access

📩 Reach out to [email protected] to subscribe or start your trial.

🔗 Learn more: https://t.co/RxGegBnkva

[Global Insights Group @LibyaDesk]

📣 For years, much of our work has taken place behind the scenes. While many know us for Libya, our clients have watched us grow into something much bigger.

Since 2018, Libya Desk has evolved into one of the region’s leading providers of due diligence, political risk intelligence, and strategic advisory. Over the past two years alone, we’ve successfully delivered projects across North Africa and the Middle East, becoming a trusted partner to leading consultancies, banks, multinational corporations, commodity traders, and investment firms.

We’re pleased to share that Libya Desk has become a part of Global Insights Group, bringing our expertise into a broader platform with ongoing operations across Libya, Algeria, Egypt, and Oman, alongside continuous political risk coverage on Libya and Iran.

Whether you need due diligence, political risk reporting, strategic intelligence, or bespoke advisory, we have the expertise and network to support your decisions.

Explore our work, browse our catalogue of reports, and subscribe to our newsletter to stay ahead of developments. If you’re operating in the countries we cover, we’d be happy to discuss how we can help.
🌐 https://t.co/CakOnwwyoy

From risk to due diligence, and everything in between, we’ve got you covered.

[The Geopolitical Desk @thegeopoldesk]

🎉 One year of The Geopolitical Desk.

For those just discovering us: GPD is an independent geopolitical intelligence platform, founded by strategic risk experts and backed by Global Insights Group (GIG).
We cover the fault lines shaping business, energy and global risk, from power struggles in Tripoli to strait diplomacy in the Gulf, relied on by banks, corporations, diplomats and analysts who need to understand not just the headlines, but what developments mean and how they can impact things going forward.

We don't do news. We equip you with everything you need to make sense of it.

[The Geopolitical Desk @thegeopoldesk]

Conventional militaries are facing a new reality.

Cheap drones and missiles can impose outsized costs on advanced forces, forcing a rethink of procurement as affordability and mass production become decisive factors in modern warfare. https://t.co/dABaQ2Rog8

[Global Insights Group @LibyaDesk]

The battle over Libya’s Intelligence Agency is rapidly becoming one of the biggest fault lines in western Libya.

In an exclusive interview with The @thegeopoldesk, Presidential Council member @Moussa_kouni says he was illegally overruled in the appointment of Abdel Majid Mlegta, raising fresh questions over the legality of the move and exposing widening fractures in Tripoli’s leadership.

https://t.co/HPuiLx1d2A

[The Geopolitical Desk @thegeopoldesk]

So what now?

A lot has been left to discuss later, meaning many obstacles are still to be overcome by intermediaries like Qatar and Pakistan. The region wishes it is out of trouble, but reality may not entirely align with their hopes.

[The Geopolitical Desk @thegeopoldesk]

🇮🇷🇺🇸 The MoU, a pause but not a resolution:

The Memorandum of Understanding, signed on June 17 between the U.S. and Iran, was presented as a definitive way out of conflict. But yet it can still not be considered a full peace deal. So what is it really?

A thread 🧵

[The Geopolitical Desk @thegeopoldesk]

🇮🇱🇦🇲 Last month Israel became the latest country to recognize the Armenian genocide.

But where Armenia has previously welcomed countries taking this step, with Israel the reactions were mixed.

Read about the reasons behind this in our latest piece. https://t.co/KgSzdRP4cU

[The Geopolitical Desk @thegeopoldesk]

🇮🇷 When cards stop working: the fragility of Iran's banking system https://t.co/fABDWPKHr9

[The Geopolitical Desk @thegeopoldesk]

🇺🇸 Trump's presidency is marked by repeated power struggles between him and the different layers of power.

One city where his authority is more unchecked is in the capital itself; Washington DC. It is here where he shapes his vision for America https://t.co/B3okWLnCDF

[The Geopolitical Desk @thegeopoldesk]

Trump City and his vision for America https://t.co/B3okWLnCDF