The odds of a serious Fed policy mistake are uncomfortably high and rising. Markets are all but certain the Fed will raise rates a quarter point at next week’s meeting, and are pricing in more to come. But the economy is already growing near potential (2% real GDP growth) and operating at full employment (unemployment a bit above 4%). Inflation is too high, to be sure, running above 3%. But much of that is the fallout from higher energy prices and tariffs, supply shocks that rate hikes can’t fix and that should fade on their own so long as inflation expectations stay anchored, as they have. If the Fed tightens to bring inflation down faster, it must push growth below potential, and that is hard to do without layoffs, rising unemployment, and igniting a self-reinforcing negative cycle. The challenge is even more complicated because AI-related investment appears to be powering the economy, while the non-AI economy is already struggling. To hit its inflation objective, the Fed either needs to rein in the AI boom or put even more pressure on the rest of the economy. Neither is a good outcome. Of course, it doesn’t have to choose either. It can wait.
A lot of people are noticing that our very successful subscription platform is called Daily Wire +. They think we're slapping at the failure of CNN+. We would never think of doing such a thing. Mainly because we forgot CNN+ existed.
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We’re giving away two whole bitcoin to two futuristic people. Follow @cashapp and tag two friends for a chance to win. #CashAppBTCWeek
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We’re living in 1984 and things aren’t going to get better unless people fight back. Quit cancelling people. Quit going after comedians. Stop censoring. If you don’t like Rogan, listen to something else. I’m sure there are a lot of good knitting channels out there.
“As we look back on the Year of Saint Joseph, I highly encourage you to get tangled up in Bluey.”
Tim Scheidler gives us insight into how a cartoon can help us evangelize in the twenty-first century. https://t.co/fQLCcWaGBL
It’s over: best helmet of the year! Tulane will wear these helmets Saturday vs. Ole Miss w/“Greenie,” featuring its old mascot from its SEC days. And Tulane also will have decal showing 3 SEC titles Green Wave won