Martin Sullivan

Chief Economist, Tax Analysts. Former Treasury, JCT staff. Grateful for bio by Steven Pearlstein (link below).

[Martin Sullivan @M_SullivanTax]

@DanielJHemel Daniel - I absolutely agree with you about EITC. But one of the no-tax-on-tips bills just introduced (can't remember which) adds back tip income for purpose of EITC. So I believe that flaw is readily addressed. - M

[Martin Sullivan @M_SullivanTax]

@EconoWill Because a VMT is, I think, a user fee for road wear and tear, might you agree it should take into account vehicle weight(per axle)?

[Martin Sullivan @M_SullivanTax]

Seems like there is wildly disproportionate emphasis on (and interest in) macroeconomic effects of monetary policy compared to the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy.

[Martin Sullivan @M_SullivanTax]

Will Pillar 2 raise a lot of revenue?

Probably not in Singapore: "given the significant spending required to stay competitive, at this point, I do not expect the new moves to generate net revenue gains for Singapore on a sustained basis."

-- 2024 Singapore Budget Statement

[Marc Goldwein @MarcGoldwein]

The 10-year Treasury yield just hit 4.4%, and the 3-month yield is a point above that.

R>G as we speak...

[Martin Sullivan @M_SullivanTax]

Question:

Using Fed to control (stimulate) growth results in interest-sensitive sectors (e.g. housing) bearing the brunt (benefit).

Why do they deserve this?

Why not use fiscal policy which can be targeted to achieve other policy goals?

https://t.co/mfBbkJCYST via @WSJ

[Lawrence H. Summers @LHSummers]

I don't know why @federalreserve is in such a hurry to be talking about moving towards the accelerator. We've got unemployment, if anything, below what they think is full capacity. We've got inflation, even in their forecast, for the next two years above target. We've got GDP growth rising if anything faster than potential. We have financial conditions, the holistic measure of monetary policy, at a very loose level.
https://t.co/GgPCnFZJT8

[Martin Sullivan @M_SullivanTax]

Bermuda citizen wonders why Bermuda is adopting a corporation tax (in response to Pillar 2):
"if Cayman is not going to do it why are we still even thinking of doing it?"
https://t.co/tc7bKUV8uA

[Martin Sullivan @M_SullivanTax]

@elwasson @SpeakerJohnson @CNBC Ds will never agree.
Without compromise, gridlock.
Gridlock means it is realistic to expect deficits will continue to grow to levels unprecedented in non-recession years.

[Peterson Institute @PIIE]

Escalating fear over China not only implies that countries are increasingly prepared to forego the efficiency gains brought on by trade, but also that the global effort toward increased pandemic preparedness may be at risk from geopolitical tensions.
https://t.co/K9fKUHCIOS

[Martin Sullivan @M_SullivanTax]

Even if TCJA not extended, budget balance in 10 years I believe based on my (perhaps inaccurate) recollections of recent report is .... impossible.

Please correct me if I am wrong. Thank you.

https://t.co/nwObgMMutx

[Martin Sullivan @M_SullivanTax]

@howard_gleckman Nice job, again, by Howard.
Surprising to me how little the 900+ page doc has to say about extending TCJA and (any details for getting to the goal of) balancing the federal budget.

[Martin Sullivan @M_SullivanTax]

@goodtaxtakes The credit-sacrosanct politically-is a mess to administer. Incentive effects are questionable. Big incentive to re-label activities as research. Credit claimed on amended returns (not included in IRS data) provides no incentive.
Eliminate credit. Allow expensing. Lower corp rate

[Martin Sullivan @M_SullivanTax]

@jasonfurman Agree economy is doing very well (and much better than portrayed by some of the President's opponents). Agree stimulus (classic EC 10 Keynesian stimulus) worked. But using 4-year old CBO forecasts as the standard for evaluating current economy . . .

[Martin Sullivan @M_SullivanTax]

A very considerable breakthrough for the cause of deficit rediction, no?

GOP budget chair: New revenue should be on the table to reduce the deficit https://t.co/GDPnJn3pkA

[Martin Sullivan @M_SullivanTax]

@Brian_Riedl It seems to me that for deficit reduction to be bipartisan there must be at least some modest tax increases as part of the deal. Could “pledged” Republicans ever agree to that?

[Martin Sullivan @M_SullivanTax]

The poor economics and gimmicky budgeting in the bipartisan tax deal are hard to deny.

From CRFB: "Because of timing issues related to business provisions, the official score significantly understates the plan’s costs. The plan also irresponsibly offers retroactive windfalls."

[Martin Sullivan @M_SullivanTax]

The poor economics and gimmcky budgeting of this bipartisan deal are hard to deny.
https://t.co/nFUbMwKbGv

[Martin Sullivan @M_SullivanTax]

Excellent recent study of TCJA from Kennedy et al finds: "corporate income tax cuts cause economically and statistically significant increases in firms’ sales, profits, payouts to shareholders, employment, and real investment in capital goods.
https://t.co/3aAqRU4Rjz