Ethan E E Kniseley

Macro Trader with a niche for discovering potential catalysts for black swans/tail risk events. Tweets should not be used in making trading/investment decisions

[Ethan E E Kniseley @MacroComplexity]

(THREAD)
I FOUND THE BEARS!!!

They're definitely not gone, just being intentionally hidden. Gonna try to keep this concise, despite the length of my outline...

I. Suppression by Moderation
II. International Emergency Powers Act
III. Just..Information...
IV. Disconnect
V. Psychosocial
VI. Conclusion

I. Suppression by Moderation

Technically, X claims to not implement shadow bans as it previously practiced historically, but they can still suppress engagement and impressions.
Tactics are often just re-labled and recycled to save face from what they haven't changed.
These may include, but are not limited to:
- Search Suppression Bans
- Thread Bans (aka Ghost Bans)
- Reply Deboosting

II. International Economic

Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA)
More modern amendments to this legislation added exemptions to the 1st and 5th Amendments of the US Constitution, which broadly justifies the censorship and deterrence of disseminating information that could potentially interfere with economic stability.
If information and/or posts could potentially be a source to this instability, the updated amendments would justify for these exemptions as a suitable means for moderation.

It's truly uncanny how often the excuse that "it's a deterence to terrorism" is used as an alibi for legislation.....

III. Just..Information...
Not going to elaborate too long on this, but I had presented the idea in research paper (back in 2021) that information entropy may become problematic with state controlled entities attempt to use disinformation as a method swaying public perception of economic conditions. This was confirmed later when FT published this piece...

IV. Disconnect

In this circumstance of optimism skewing sentiment to an extreme, it incentivizes a rather severe form of group think, which exaggerates mispricing and severity of macro contagion, in terms of available exit liquidity (don't have time to delve further into expounding upon the plethora of other problems currently effecting global liq conditions rn...).
Here's the gist of the disconnect:
If market sentiment indicators/polls/etc show that there are participants on both sides, then where have all of the bearish posts been for the past year?
Let me reiterate, I said "posts" specifically, not positions or trades. It can still have significance when pertaining to human participants' psyches.

V. Psychosocial

Psychologically, this cultivates multiple toxic traits, not just amongst market participants, but even more so to broader society, including:
- Reinforcing false positive biases,
- Deconstructing object permanence in grown adults (re-installing out of sight, out of mind)
- Demonizing information and/or participants that may note negative factors (then individuals wonder why no one gave any warnings afterward)

VI. Conclusion

This barely touches the surface of the issue, but thought it was about time to bring some light to this severe overreach of personal liberties. I'll end this with 3 questions, and let you help me decide the answers:

1. Is the US still the most free economy and market in the world, if it requires censorship to maintain it?
2. Is it fraud if nobody speaks about it?
3. Was the Emperror just wearing invisible clothes??.....

[Ethan E E Kniseley @MacroComplexity]

May see some interesting developments about the Rhine River coming soon.

#Macro

[Ethan E E Kniseley @MacroComplexity]

#Macro

[Israel Defense Forces @IDF]

Following a situational assessment, it was determined that as of today (Saturday), at 08:00, immediate changes will be made to the Home Front Command Guidelines.
As part of the changes, it was decided to shift all areas of the country from Full Activity to Essential Activity.
The guidelines include: a prohibition on educational activities, gatherings, and workplaces, except for essential sectors.
The public is required to follow the guidelines published on the official Home Front Command channels.
Full guidelines will be updated on the National Emergency Portal and the Home Front Command app.

[Gregor Peter @L0gg0l]

Breaking

[C4H10FO2P ☠️ @markito0171]

administration building in city of #Kermanshah set on fire 🇮🇷#Iran

[Bret Baier @BretBaier]

URGENT/CONFIRMED: U.S. military strikes  against Venezuela underway, U.S. officials tell Fox News  h/t @LucasFoxNews More to come but it appears to be a substantial hit on Venezuelan military facilities.

[Ethan E E Kniseley @MacroComplexity]

@amitisinvesting Well written thread, but it’s primarily information entropy.

[Ethan E E Kniseley @MacroComplexity]

(THREAD)
I FOUND THE BEARS!!!

They're definitely not gone, just being intentionally hidden. Gonna try to keep this concise, despite the length of my outline...

I. Suppression by Moderation
II. International Emergency Powers Act
III. Just..Information...
IV. Disconnect
V. Psychosocial
VI. Conclusion

I. Suppression by Moderation

Technically, X claims to not implement shadow bans as it previously practiced historically, but they can still suppress engagement and impressions.
Tactics are often just re-labled and recycled to save face from what they haven't changed.
These may include, but are not limited to:
- Search Suppression Bans
- Thread Bans (aka Ghost Bans)
- Reply Deboosting

II. International Economic

Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA)
More modern amendments to this legislation added exemptions to the 1st and 5th Amendments of the US Constitution, which broadly justifies the censorship and deterrence of disseminating information that could potentially interfere with economic stability.
If information and/or posts could potentially be a source to this instability, the updated amendments would justify for these exemptions as a suitable means for moderation.

It's truly uncanny how often the excuse that "it's a deterence to terrorism" is used as an alibi for legislation.....

III. Just..Information...
Not going to elaborate too long on this, but I had presented the idea in research paper (back in 2021) that information entropy may become problematic with state controlled entities attempt to use disinformation as a method swaying public perception of economic conditions. This was confirmed later when FT published this piece...

IV. Disconnect

In this circumstance of optimism skewing sentiment to an extreme, it incentivizes a rather severe form of group think, which exaggerates mispricing and severity of macro contagion, in terms of available exit liquidity (don't have time to delve further into expounding upon the plethora of other problems currently effecting global liq conditions rn...).
Here's the gist of the disconnect:
If market sentiment indicators/polls/etc show that there are participants on both sides, then where have all of the bearish posts been for the past year?
Let me reiterate, I said "posts" specifically, not positions or trades. It can still have significance when pertaining to human participants' psyches.

V. Psychosocial

Psychologically, this cultivates multiple toxic traits, not just amongst market participants, but even more so to broader society, including:
- Reinforcing false positive biases,
- Deconstructing object permanence in grown adults (re-installing out of sight, out of mind)
- Demonizing information and/or participants that may note negative factors (then individuals wonder why no one gave any warnings afterward)

VI. Conclusion

This barely touches the surface of the issue, but thought it was about time to bring some light to this severe overreach of personal liberties. I'll end this with 3 questions, and let you help me decide the answers:

1. Is the US still the most free economy and market in the world, if it requires censorship to maintain it?
2. Is it fraud if nobody speaks about it?
3. Was the Emperror just wearing invisible clothes??.....

[Ethan E E Kniseley @MacroComplexity]

Saying the total “#US debt” is only $40 Trillion, may be one of the most conservative tweets I’ve seen on #Fintwit in the last decade…..

Note: I mean no disrespect to Burry in any way. Will always value his perspective/nuance!
$MACRO

[Barchart @Barchart]

Michael Burry warns the U.S. might be headed towards full nationalization of the Bond Market 🤯👀😱

[Ethan E E Kniseley @MacroComplexity]

$MACRO #MACRO

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

CHINA HAS REWIRED ITS FINANCIAL SYSTEM — ALLOWING IT TO TRADE GLOBALLY WITHOUT RELYING ON THE U.S. DOLLAR.
THIS SHIFT COULD SUPERCHARGE THE YUAN’S INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCE AND RESHAPE THE GLOBAL PAYMENTS LANDSCAPE.

[Ethan E E Kniseley @MacroComplexity]

$MACRO #Macro

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI CENTER SAYS TSUNAMI WARNING ISSUED AFTER 7.2 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE STRIKES ALASKA PENINSULA

[Ethan E E Kniseley @MacroComplexity]

Tonight, a gas station clerk asked me if I remembered that Walmart used to have a pet fish section years ago.

Going out used to captivate our intrigue. Without wonder, it’s merely a function of habit.

Along with our innocence,
They likewise stole our wonder.

[Ethan E E Kniseley @MacroComplexity]

Tonight, a gas station clerk asked me if I remembered that Walmart used to have a pet fish section years ago.

Going out used to captivate our intrigue. Without wonder, it’s merely a function of habit.

Along with our innocence,
They likewise stole our wonder.

[Déaglán @PontifexLeoXIV]

Okay this got old as soon as I did it and now I can’t get my old username back. I don’t want to be pope anymore 😔

[Déaglán @PontifexLeoXIV]

For just 12 payments of $89.99 you can buy your place in Heaven

[Déaglán @PontifexLeoXIV]

Haha I got the username

[Ethan E E Kniseley @MacroComplexity]

#Macro $MACRO

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

⚠️The NFIB Uncertainty index of US small businesses hit its 2nd-highest level EVER RECORDED.

The US has 33 MILLION small firms, 44% of GDP.

They employ 61.7 MILLION people, 46.4% of the private sector.

High uncertainty = less investments = less growth and jobs.

Concerning.

[Ethan E E Kniseley @MacroComplexity]

FINALLY! Someone says the quiet part out loud!!

$BTC #crypto #Bitcoin #Macro $MACRO

[Mark W. Yusko - Two Point One Quadrillion @MarkYusko]

Everyone cheered when Bitcoin classified as a commodity…

Dirty little secret is that opened up this can of worms when futures established and can create paper commodity out of thin air and manipulate price for profits…

[Ethan E E Kniseley @MacroComplexity]

This will include the publicly traded markets...Keep watching 👀

$MACRO #Macro

[The Butcher of Wall Street | Marcel Kalinovic @BossBlunts1]

BREAKING 🚨

US TREASURY SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT, "The private sector has been in recession."

Bessent adds that their goal is re-privatizing the economy to end the recession.

Told you.

[Ethan E E Kniseley @MacroComplexity]

In theory, maybe. But would it enourage overall confidence for the US economically, if we were to remove the mechanism of a free market economy, which has historically allowed for the enablement of it's participants to determine the interest rate on TRYs?
MMTers would argue yes, but that's really only feasible if we were moving towards becoming isolationists.

[Ethan E E Kniseley @MacroComplexity]

@BaldingsWorld nice. I wish you well with that. Can only imagine that it's definitely no small undertaking. You Got this!