MacroNuvox

EM macro from inside Indonesia. 🇮🇩
Maintaining a level of curiosity to learn every day.
Not financial advice. ☺️

[MacroNuvox @Macro_Nuvox]

Mengikuti pidato Presiden Prabowo baru-baru ini yang menyatakan bahwa warga yang tidak menyukai situasi Indonesia saat ini boleh pergi dan mencari negara lain untuk ditinggali...

Sebagai sesama orang Indonesia, situasi ini memunculkan sejumlah pertanyaan. Salah satunya mendorong saya untuk meneliti tentang rendahnya kualitas tenaga kerja Indonesia.

Indonesia memiliki tenaga kerja namun minim keterampilan, 30% pemberi kerja kesulitan menemukan talenta yang kompeten meskipun terdapat 153 juta angkatan kerja, di mana hanya 12,7% yang memiliki gelar sarjana.

Lima sektor yang paling kekurangan tenaga terampil pada tahun 2030 adalah:

Layanan Kesehatan
Teknologi
Keuangan
Pendidikan
Keahlian Vokasi

Masing-masing sektor menghadapi kekurangan tenaga kerja mulai dari 65.000 dokter spesialis hingga 9 juta pekerja digital.

Apa masalah utamanya? Negara tetangga kita, Singapura, menjadi tujuan utama bagi pekerja muda yang terampil, mengapa? Singapura menawarkan gaji 3 hingga 7 kali lebih tinggi dalam mata uang USD untuk posisi yang sama persis; seorang spesialis kesehatan berpenghasilan $2.147 di Jakarta dibandingkan $15.385 di Singapura, sementara analis keuangan berpenghasilan $1.963 dibandingkan $12.821.

Indonesia memang menghadapi sejumlah masalah ekonomi, namun jika presiden kita sendiri tidak melakukan langkah-langkah yang diperlukan dan justru melontarkan pernyataan untuk mengusir warga yang menunjukkan ketidaksetujuan terhadap tata kelola pemerintahan saat ini, maka kita bisa memastikan bahwa ekonomi yang dominan dan makmur hanyalah angan mimpi yang sangat jauh dari kenyataan.

Berhati-hatilah dengan pembicaraan kalian, karena bisa jadi kalian sendiri yang akhirnya akan diusir. Hahaha.

[Jejak digital. @ARSIPAJA]

Prabowo: "Yang merasa Indonesia suram, silakan kalau mau cari negara lain. Silakan, tidak ada yang melarang"

[MacroNuvox @Macro_Nuvox]

Descending triangles have never been known for their optimism.

$XRP has formed one on the daily timeframe and the structure points toward a continuation lower.

A visit to the Fibonacci level below is looming nearer than ever.

[MacroNuvox @Macro_Nuvox]

The debate on when $BTC bottoms has a few answer the chart keeps repeating.

This is one of them.

Every preceding bottom has been paired with a visit below the 2.0 range on the Stochastic, followed by a golden cross.

Past 2 bear markets have proven the same.

The golden cross is nearly about to be formed.

$BTC.

[MacroNuvox @Macro_Nuvox]

Being a market connoisseur for nearly a decade has made you triple check the markets significant movements.

Here's what I found.

Optimism around Indonesia's equity market has grown substantially following the recent weekly gains.

Though one factual data point stands out.

Every preceding market bottom has been paired with a USD/IDR strengthening average of 5.3% sustained for an average minimum of one month.

If the conditions are filled, price has always followed closely rendering few of its biggest returns from this relationship.

Currently, the Rupiah has only strengthened by 1% with high levels of fluctuation still present.

Now, the question arise.

Will history repeat itself? or will this time be different?

[Ricky Ho @rickyho_1989]

50 Wealthiest Indonesians Richer Than Bottom 50 Million: Inequality in I... https://t.co/zPgNP67NxP via @YouTube

The headline is certainly eye-catching, but it should not surprise anyone. Wealth concentration is a feature of many emerging economies, especially those where capital ownership compounds much faster than wage growth. The more important question is not whether inequality exists, but why it persists despite decades of economic growth.

Indonesia has enjoyed respectable GDP growth for years, yet the gains have not been distributed evenly. Asset owners have benefited from rising property prices, equity valuations, and ownership of natural resources, while a large share of the workforce remains in low-productivity, informal employment with limited opportunities for income growth. At the same time, recent data suggests that the middle class is not expanding as expected. In fact, it has begun to shrink. According to national statistics, the proportion of Indonesians classified as middle class declined in recent years, with millions slipping back into the aspiring middle class category due to stagnant wages, rising living costs, and economic shocks such as the pandemic. The result is an economy where aggregate wealth expands, but a significant portion of the population struggles to participate in that expansion.

This is also why GDP alone is an incomplete measure of prosperity. A country can grow rapidly while living standards improve only modestly for millions of people if productivity gains, capital returns, and high-value industries remain concentrated among a relatively small group. The shrinking middle class is a clear signal of this imbalance. Growth is occurring, but it is not translating into stable, upward mobility for a broad segment of society. Sustainable prosperity requires broad-based productivity growth through better education, stronger manufacturing, higher-skilled jobs, deeper capital markets, and greater access to entrepreneurship, not simply higher commodity prices or larger fiscal spending.

At the same time, wealth inequality should not automatically be interpreted as evidence of economic failure. Every successful economy has wealthy entrepreneurs and business owners. The objective should not be to make everyone equally wealthy, but to create an economy where social mobility is real, opportunities are widely available, and success is determined more by innovation and productivity than by inherited capital or privileged access.

Ultimately, the real challenge for Indonesia is not creating fewer billionaires. It is creating millions more people who can join the middle class and accumulate assets of their own. Reversing the recent contraction of the middle class should be a central priority, because it reflects whether growth is truly inclusive. A society becomes more resilient not when the rich become poorer, but when economic growth allows far more citizens to participate in wealth creation. That is a much more durable solution than redistribution alone.

[MacroNuvox @Macro_Nuvox]

Consistent rejections from the same trendline rarely end without consequence.

$BNB has rejected that level repeatedly since late June and a significant drawdown just followed.

Currently price is positioned at the support level, though unfilled areas sit below current price.

If price continues to fall, the Fibonacci level becomes the first target.

[MacroNuvox @Macro_Nuvox]

@TradingDiary2 Kalo semuanya berjalan dengan baik dan Bank kita mampu menahan rupiah bahkan menguatkan nya lebih lagi. Recovery untuk IHSG tidak bisa di abaikan lagi. Semuanya terhubung pada chart di bawah ini

Coba liat 👇

[MacroNuvox @Macro_Nuvox]

Being a market connoisseur for nearly a decade has made you triple check the markets significant movements.

Here's what I found.

Optimism around Indonesia's equity market has grown substantially following the recent weekly gains.

Though one factual data point stands out.

Every preceding market bottom has been paired with a USD/IDR strengthening average of 5.3% sustained for an average minimum of one month.

If the conditions are filled, price has always followed closely rendering few of its biggest returns from this relationship.

Currently, the Rupiah has only strengthened by 1% with high levels of fluctuation still present.

Now, the question arise.

Will history repeat itself? or will this time be different?

[MacroNuvox @Macro_Nuvox]

Being a market connoisseur for nearly a decade has made you triple check the markets significant movements.

Here's what I found.

Optimism around Indonesia's equity market has grown substantially following the recent weekly gains.

Though one factual data point stands out.

Every preceding market bottom has been paired with a USD/IDR strengthening average of 5.3% sustained for an average minimum of one month.

If the conditions are filled, price has always followed closely rendering few of its biggest returns from this relationship.

Currently, the Rupiah has only strengthened by 1% with high levels of fluctuation still present.

Now, the question arise.

Will history repeat itself? or will this time be different?

[Him @himgajria]

No other industry has a wider dispersion of IQ than crypto, where you’ll find some of the smartest and some of the stupidest people going at it together.

[MacroNuvox @Macro_Nuvox]

@TimeCycleMarket Well drawn analysis!

A macroeconomic representative of the worlds sentiments regarding major crisis happening. Pair that with BTC they’ve maintained a consistent relationship.

Serving as another conviction added into plays regarding Bitcoin

[MacroNuvox @Macro_Nuvox]

Menjadi salah satu negara yang terancam turun ke frontier market, Indonesia masih lebih memperhatikan kepercayaan investor asing dari pada potensi ekonomi negara kita sendiri.

Kata kuncinya? Trust.

Pihak asing sudah berbicara lewat aksinya, penjualan besar-besaran terjadi selama setahun terakhir.

Chart di atas menunjukan 5 saham dengan net sell asing terbesar YTD.

Kepercayaan memang butuh waktu untuk di bangun kembali.

Namun hal yang menarik di sini adalah 5 saham di atas memiliki probabilitas yang tinggi untuk menjadi pemimpin di recovery nya.

[MacroNuvox @Macro_Nuvox]

Price to Earnings ratio akan selalu menjadi salah satu indikator yang paling sering digunakan di dunia finance dan ekonomi.

Inilah yang ditemukan di pasar modal kita.

P/E ratio IHSG dari awal 2026 hingga 16 Juli 2026 berada di level 8.98x, dibandingkan rata-rata 14.02x dari tahun 2015 hingga 2025.

Bahasa simplenya : Udah murah banget oyy… Beli yg banyak!!

[MacroNuvox @Macro_Nuvox]

@Anbuhighroller Well deserved is the best way to describe it 🙌

[MacroNuvox @Macro_Nuvox]

@Anbuhighroller kalo salah tanggung jawab ya, udh siap jual rumah ni

[MacroNuvox @Macro_Nuvox]

@Anbuhighroller pake kagebunshin jutsu

[MacroNuvox @Macro_Nuvox]

Well here’s something interesting.

In the previous cycle, $SOL's bottom arrived precisely when price visited the second of three exponential candles.

The position of current price, candles, and the Fair Value Gap are all perfectly aligned to reiterate the same results once again

A near unambiguous level.

[MacroNuvox @Macro_Nuvox]

$BTC

Another piece added to the conviction.

A bearish divergence has formed on the RSI following the recent pump.

Though a short recovery was made, a drawdown is inevitable.

[MacroNuvox @Macro_Nuvox]

$BTC

Played out exactly the way it was drawn.

Liquidity swept. FVG rejected.

A support level sits at $63,400–$63,800, with price positioned just above it, a revisit seems imminent.

If that level gives way, the Gann Box becomes the next pinpoint.

[MacroNuvox @Macro_Nuvox]

$BTC

Played out exactly the way it was drawn.

Liquidity swept. FVG rejected.

A support level sits at $63,400–$63,800, with price positioned just above it, a revisit seems imminent.

If that level gives way, the Gann Box becomes the next pinpoint.

[MacroNuvox @Macro_Nuvox]

Quick recap on $BTC

Buy-side liquidity sits above, the next move might be a sweep followed by a rejection at the FVG.

The Gann Box points to a drawdown back toward previous levels.

[MacroNuvox @Macro_Nuvox]

Hmmm…. ada divergence kyk nya nih…

Meskipun terkadang price dan RSI nya lebih dari trend line… tp selalu ketahan sih… Wkwkwkwk

But all jokes aside, kt ga bisa mengabaikan fakta bahwa sekarang merupakan kesempatan emas untuk beli saham.

IHSG hanya pernah mencapai level serendah ini sebanyak 3x semenjak tahun 2008 dan salah satu nya adalah sekarang.

Kalau kalian selama ini pada ngomong “tunggu pas murah” harga sekarang merupakan salah satu harga termurah yang akan kalian pernah dapat, terbukti dengan harganya turun 30% semenjak memasuki tahun 2026.