Beat Nussbaumer

Founder and CEO of Macro Beat Ltd. FX Macro Trader, Research and FX tutor. Market professional for nearly 40 years. Tweets are my own opinion

[Beat Nussbaumer @MacrobeatL]

@dotkrueger He might not but all his investors. Going all in on an asset does not need talent other than convincing new Investors to invest. Going all in and either win big or lose all, needs zero talent and zero admiration.

[Beat Nussbaumer @MacrobeatL]

@FirstSquawk I wish i knew what he is smoking.. must be strong stuff... did he just see the payrolls ?

[Beat Nussbaumer @MacrobeatL]

I guess hard to see the MOF intervene while the broad USD remains bid, especially if we get stronger NFP or solid NFP.... we would need to see real weak data for the MOF to have a think about to step in and help the USD sell off on weak data (they done that in the past post a weak US CPI in 2024)... for the moment, it seems that we have a seller in the rally that feels official or semi-official but the current tactic feels like a SNB type tactic... smooth rather than anything else.... it feels the MOF has to wait for either a set of weak US data... or the MOU to be signed and a big drop in Oil etc... just my 2 cents

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

🚨 We may be looking at the rarest market setup in 50 years.

The S&P 500's four historic drawdowns since 1972:
– 1973 Inflation: -43%
– 1987 Liquidity: -30%
– 2000 Tech: -47%
– 2008 Credit: -55%

Each one was driven by ONE dominant risk.

Right now, all four are present at the same time.

1. INFLATION
A commodity supercycle. Energy, metals, agriculture all in multi-year base breakouts. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge has been above 2% for 18 of the last 24 months.

2. LIQUIDITY
The largest equity supply shock since 2000. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic raising ~$275B combined. Google flipping from $60B/year buybacks to $80B net issuance. Over $1 trillion of IPO and lockup supply hitting the Russell 3000 in 2026.

3. TECH
Semiconductors trading 73% above their 200-day moving average – the largest stretch since March 2000. Climax run signals across the AI complex. Micron, Palantir, SMCI, the SOX index, all showing the textbook O'Neil sell pattern.

4. CREDIT
Apollo, KKR, BlackRock, Blue Owl, Cliffwater, Partners Group – all gating redemptions on their evergreen funds in the last 90 days. The private credit machine is freezing in real time.

Never in 50 years have all four risks been simultaneously present.

But here's the part nobody talks about

While the AI Big 10 has gone vertical, quality stocks have been left for dead.

– Berkshire Hathaway: trailing the S&P 500 by hundreds of basis points
– Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Pepsi: trading at multi-year relative lows
– HEICO, Union Pacific, MSCI: making boring new highs while everyone watches Nvidia
– Healthcare vs. S&P 500: 25-year relative low

The last time this happened?

December 1999. Barron's ran a cover titled "What's Wrong, Warren?" – mocking Buffett for being a dinosaur, for missing the internet, for refusing to pay for growth at any price.

Berkshire was down 19% in 1999 while the Nasdaq was up 85%.

What followed:
– Berkshire +29% over the next 24 months
– Nasdaq -78% over the next 30 months

The setup today

Four historic risks stacked simultaneously, while the boring, durable, cash-flowing businesses that always survive these regimes have been treated like dead money for years.

The math doesn't get more asymmetric than this.

Quality stocks aren't out of style.

They're being orphaned.

That's when generational positions are built.

The boring stuff hasn't worked for a long time.

History suggests that's exactly the moment it starts to.

[Beat Nussbaumer @MacrobeatL]

remove the Green tax and not replace it... the Govt should start to cut the massive welfare bill and other money wasted... reform the NHS properly and stop paying billions to a blown up top heavy system as starters...so what is your suggestion stick to net zero.. did you ever actually see how much Miliband plans to spend and what net zero actually costs next to the fact that we are not ready at all to even go that distance as we have no real infrastructure that works to actually go electric next to the fact as i said before and what you seem to forget as well Miliband buys Oil and Gas in Norway and thinks by outsourcing the global carbon foot print he does something for the world next to all other imports we do from far away lands for solar and this and that... so this entire net zero is a scam... so what i am saying is.. we should stop wasting that money immediately and put that money to better use... and maybe the Labour party gets the act together one day and stops penalising those that work and add value to the economy as i have hardly seen a worse Govt to kill off the economy... just saying Hospitality and Farmers and so on... so not sure, i m tempted to say you are either very Green or very Socialist or both ... as any common sense would start to look at the trade off or risk reward trade here on what this Govt is doing and realise.....its nonsense

[Beat Nussbaumer @MacrobeatL]

@FirstSquawk Wink wink. He doesn't even blush when lying.

[Beat Nussbaumer @MacrobeatL]

I give you a few other things to think about , not so insignificant at the end and take away all the green taxes we have and maybe we could even create some growth.. not quite sure what you are on about... continue as we do at the moment is just no option or the terminal end of the UK Economy as we know it

Government Tax Revenue: Extraction provides billions in corporation tax and license fees, which can be reinvested into public services.

Industrial and Infrastructure Support: Domestic production helps maintain key elements of the UK’s energy infrastructure and supplies the domestic petrochemical manufacturing sector

[Beat Nussbaumer @MacrobeatL]

@politico Of course, he wants to have a quiet second half of his term. So much so that looking the other way looks appealing but one day, the entire Cabinet will have to answer a lot of questions.

[Beat Nussbaumer @MacrobeatL]

Mr Schlegel should contact Mr Ueda.... they have the opposite problems... time for them to maybe intervene in CHF/JPY that would help both Central Banks (and myself haha)

[LiveSquawk @LiveSquawk]

SNB Chairman Schlegel: Increased Willingness To Intervene In FX
Mid-Term Inflation Pressure Basically Unchanged
Swiss Hotel Industry Remains Price Competitive Despite Rise In Swiss Franc
Global Economic Growth May Temporarily Somewhat Slow, Uncertainty Clearly Higher

[Beat Nussbaumer @MacrobeatL]

@LiveSquawk Mr Schlegel should contact Mr Ueda.... they have the opposite problems... time for them to maybe intervene in CHF/JPY that would help both Central Banks (and myself haha)

[Beat Nussbaumer @MacrobeatL]

Well I might have missed to add the amount of money that we waste on all his projects... money that could be used to growth the Economy but the entire Cabinet is a bunch of wimps to tell Ed that its time to forget that insanity and actually do something for the people that elected them.. 14 years in opposition, time for a plan... and...... they had and still have no Plan and Burnham will be even worse

[Beat Nussbaumer @MacrobeatL]

@Ed_Miliband Would you please start to realise that your policy is killing the UK economy for a price not worth paying with UK Emissions at 1% of the Global Emissions even if we stop using fossil fuel tomorrow... but you then buy your stuff from economies that have dirtier fuel so where does this makes sense to nuke the Economy, make people pay the highest price for energy in the developed world and give up Energy security at a time where the world is at its most unstable.... your sound bite of Net Zero is becoming more and more of a joke.... and you should directly be held accountable if things start to go wrong... but you politicians sail in the sun set never to be seen again when things go wrong.. wake up Mr Miliband

[The Telegraph @Telegraph]

BP is preparing to quit the North Sea after more than 60 years as Labour ramps up taxes on oil and gas

Here's why it would be Labour's biggest casualty of its oil and gas policy👇
https://t.co/Xy5QDDjfHX

[Beat Nussbaumer @MacrobeatL]

The Labour Govt should urgently review Net Zero.... the UK is insignificant when it comes to the Carbon foot print... 1% of global emission even if we were to stop all fossil fuel tomorrow... but in return... we nuke our economy, have the most expensive energy and buy stuff from those that produce goods with dirty energy... where is there any sense in this ? next to the fact we give up Energy security in a time where the world is at its most unstable..... would somebody please shake Mr Miliband out of his day dream and focus on the real problems please?

[The Telegraph @Telegraph]

BP is preparing to quit the North Sea after more than 60 years as Labour ramps up taxes on oil and gas

Here's why it would be Labour's biggest casualty of its oil and gas policy👇
https://t.co/Xy5QDDjfHX

[Beat Nussbaumer @MacrobeatL]

USDJPY 4h

What is there to say that was not said yet….. the only thing would be what I already put on the chat.. the overnight info…. 160 traded…. Large volume went through there but we have seen no follow through… we have 80 bio USD of option expiries in the next few days but of course not all of them will be around here… so we will go through the close ones day by day……Mrs Katayama was on the wires with the usual stuff.. nothing new there…we have BOJ Ueda speaking this morning my calendar has 09.30 BST…. So that could be important if he were to speak policy with the BOJ meeting not too far away with 19bp priced for a hike in June… the other issue for the JPY right now is that we have a bid USD… with better US data and some broader USD strength that might make the job for the MOF harder… but we can still see some hidden activities in USDJPY as every time the broad USD goes bid… XXXJPY drops… so there is some supply up here…. will be interesting to see what comes next… clearly the market is on high alert with sitting near 160.00

Range to start the day.. 159.50 vs 160.00.. awaiting US Service ISM and BOJ Ueda speech

[The Telegraph @Telegraph]

'It is hard to write down the circumstances of the death of Henry Nowak without crying. Each time I think about how that young man met his end, I find myself consumed with sadness and a sense of raging disbelief'

Read @AllisonPearson's full column 👇
https://t.co/ilwbe47Ae1

[Beat Nussbaumer @MacrobeatL]

Your keyword there seems to be "if"..... it just feels the Trump Administration is unable to hold diplomatic talks , that is how we ended up in this war in the first place. Trump still dreams of that big surrender....Not going to happen... he has miscalculated just about everything and it is him that needs an urgent Off ramp.... Trump maybe the key mistake... never underestimate your opponent but when it comes to Iran, it is unforgiving of him to do that... we know that regime for decades... the issue now is... he cannot even sign a deal that looks like the Obama deal... as we now have Hormuz as well that we did not have before... a real mess. Trump still seems not to understand that he goes up against an Ideology not the kind of "Deal maker "people he is used to (not to say he is a good deal maker either.... just saying

[Beat Nussbaumer @MacrobeatL]

Really sad if one has to start doubting what we here from the President and/or the White House.. so much so that one has to almost think that FARS news is closer to the truth than the constant avalanche of Trump TS messages where half the stuff is just not true

[Beat Nussbaumer @MacrobeatL]

@JungleRockRes I think my Dad Dance is a bit better hahah