The Macro Fireside

Institutional Global Macro Analysis. Portfolio Manager, Strategist, Formerly Bank Treasurer. Engineered for clarity in fragmented markets. Dispatches by SG.

[The Macro Fireside @macrofireside]

Markets have moved from a regime of "lower for longer" to one defined by high-volatility structural shifts.
Navigating these markets requires more than just sentiment—it requires a tested analytical framework.

Welcome to The Macro Fireside! 🧵

[The Macro Fireside @macrofireside]

For the full report:
https://t.co/IvurEdR7Ut

[The Macro Fireside @macrofireside]

May ’26 Employment Report: The Re-Rate Arrives

Payrolls are running at 188K a month, not stalling. But the composition is narrow, the hike is priced for December, and the market just repriced by duration. The verdict belongs to CPI.

My take on May'26 Employment Report just dropped.
https://t.co/ohxqxYS3Zo

#Employment #Labor #Dollar #Yields #Inflation

[The Macro Fireside @macrofireside]

8/ In technology, wrappers have a habit of becoming features. The full essay, including the aggregation counterargument and how a practitioner positions for the compression: https://t.co/ch57Qj9qCv

[The Macro Fireside @macrofireside]

AI Wrappers and the Coming Compression @Macrofireside

AI is about to split into two kinds of companies: platforms and features. The market is pricing them as one. That is the largest mispricing in the complex right now. A short thread on wrappers, compression, and where the value actually settles. 1/

[The Macro Fireside @macrofireside]

7/ “Buy the picks and shovels” fails too. Nvidia and the Hyperscalers are the most-owned assets on earth; their durability is consensus, already in the price. With the equity risk premium near zero, you’re paid to be right where opinion is dispersed: the application layer.

[The Macro Fireside @macrofireside]

9/ Closing:
Use the instruments built for this moment. Sequence them. Communicate the plan. And keep the rate cudgel in the cupboard. The market will read it as resolve. The diaspora may write the cheque again — but under a better framework.

Full piece: 👉 https://t.co/mJJ7cTv7fi

#INR #RBI #IndiaMacro #EmergingMarkets #MonetaryPolicy #ForeignExchange #Macro #CentralBanking

[The Macro Fireside @macrofireside]

8/
India in 2026 has the deepest reserves, strongest banking system, most credible inflation framework, and lowest CAD in its history of dealing with crises of this kind. The 1991 and 2013 playbooks are not the right reference.

[The Macro Fireside @macrofireside]

8/ Long‑duration assets pricing aggressive easing into 2026 are pricing a Fed this report does not justify. The curve, the dollar, and the front end of rates are where the disagreement gets resolved.

Full piece: 👉https://t.co/wXrF0t3ffL

#NFP #Fed #Macro