Mister Macro

Macro

[Sam Stein @samstein]

This is really incredible. Docs released by Trump tonight confirm RUSSIA tried to spread claims Biden was engaged in criminal activity vis-a-vis Burisma and that it advanced those narratives "with US officials" and planed a "high-profile corruption scandal... at the peak of the 2020 US presidential campaign."

[Stephen Hayes @stephenfhayes]

"New election should take place or Cruz results nullified."

[Brian Krassenstein @krassenstein]

Quick question, whatever happened to:

- The DOGE dividend checks
- Tariff rebate checks
- Slashing energy prices
- 10% APR on credit cards
- 1000–1500% cheaper meds
- $2 gas
- The Epstein files
- Reopening the Strait of Hormuz that was already open
- Cheaper groceries
- Ending wars in 24 hours
- The "privately funded" ballroom
- All the jobs
- Lower interest rates
- That great healthcare plan

Any updates?

[rachel cohen @rcohen]

Tonight, Trump will claim that the intelligence community conspired to conceal from him information about China’s efforts in the 2020 election.

Except that the Intelligence Community Assessment was compiled under Director John Ratcliffe and briefed to him on 1/7/21.

[Aaron Rupar @atrupar]

Ossoff: "Here's what's going to happen tonight: the world's most famous sore loser will deliver a prime-time presidential sour grapes address to pursue his 6-year-old grievances about the 2020 election, while his war in the Middle East spirals out of control and the cost of living continues to rise for Americans across the country. I expect the president to reheat debunked conspiracy theories about the repeatedly litigated and audited and confirmed 2020 presidential election in Georgia, an election that Donald Trump lost. And let me be very clear about this: if the President declares Georgia's election illegitimate, or if the President declares Georgia's sitting United States Senators illegitimate, he is declaring Georgia voters illegitimate. It's Donald Trump who tried to defraud Georgia voters in that election, Donald Trump who tried to commit election fraud when he called Georgia's Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger -- and it was caught on tape, and you should play the tape to your viewers today -- and badgered and bullied Georgia's top election official to 'find him' the votes that he needed to win in a state where he had lost."

[Brandon Weichert @WeTheBrandon]

I really hope this is a lame attempt at the "He's THAT GUY" meme. If the past is prologue, though, it's another round of blasphemy from a blasphemous Mad King.

[David Axelrod @davidaxelrod]

If @POTUS really stands up tomorrow night to raise the threat of foreign interference in our elections, I hope he also will explain why he slashed CISA, the agency created to fight it; the ODNI's Foreign Malign Influence Center and the FBI's foreign influence task force.

[Marcus @Marcus_250122]

12% possession after scoring.

Just utterly baffling.

[Mister Macro @MacroholicsAnon]

@rich_goldberg These are just made up numbers

[Mister Macro @MacroholicsAnon]

@donnelly_brent What about 0.28 vs 0.32

[Mister Macro @MacroholicsAnon]

@LukeGromen @Macronomics1 @dampedspring @nickgiva1 Or, Warsh “demonstrating credibility” with a hike or two reduces inflation expectations and 10y on out rally (best if paired with oil dropping ofc!).. risk parity delight while also being net stimulative via deficit and housing.. the machine lumbers on

[Mister Macro @MacroholicsAnon]

@marcthiessen Reread MOU 4-5. Only role for US in Hormuz is to end its blockade and leave the area. That’s the deal Trump signed in Versailles.

[Drew Pavlou 🇦🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 @DrewPavlou]

This has to go down as one of the worst decisions in World Cup history

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

If you want to know where things stand with the MOU and U.S.-Iranian "ceasefire," have I got a special Saturday afternoon treat for you. Below are excerpts of what J.D. Vance told a group of reporters in a background call yesterday at around 3 o'clock in the afternoon. I wasn't on the call but someone kindly sent me a transcript.

As you know, the MOU isn't looking so hot right now. Iran keeps opening fire on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the CENTCOM spent two nights this week retaliating, striking at least 170 Iranian targets, including "air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites, naval capabilities, and military logistics infrastructure along Iran’s coastline."

Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were also on the call yesterday, but Vance, rumored to be the "fall guy" if this tenuous deal collapses, led the conversation. He did it so well that at one point Witkoff professed he had "nothing to add" to a "perfect articulation of where we are today."

When asked if perhaps Iran didn't interpret the MOU to mean that Iran was in control of the Strait of Hormuz, the Vice President said: "What happened is they were caught off guard after they signed the MOU by how rapidly traffic was moving, and especially how much traffic was moving through the southern lane of the Strait of Hormuz. So in reality, and we saw this again with many of the pragmatic people within their system, they recognized that our interpretation was not just reasonable, but it was the only plausible interpretation. That some of the hardliners, and you can even see this in some of the social media posts, started to attack [Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas] Araghchi and [Speaker of Iranian Parliament Mohammad] Ghalibaf for making a bad deal. This is not an interpretive difference. What it is is that certain elements within Iran decided, 'Oh wait, we gave up leverage that we didn't want to give up.' They decided to renege on the deal. So I think it's very important to characterize this accurately, and it's not a reinterpretation of the MOU. They they were reneging on the deal because they felt caught off guard by how quickly oil and gas was moving through the southern channel."

Paragraph 5 of the agreement states: "Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and de-mining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days."

Most read this as implicit confirmation that Tehran did indeed control the Strait; otherwise, why would the Iranians have to make arrangements for the safe passage of commercial vessels and why would they have to de-mine a waterway they had no custody over?

Vance now says that's not how to read paragraph 5 at all. Rather, the U.S. is simply a victim of its own naval success. By opening the Strait, the "pragmatic" Iranians acknowledged their loss of leverage but the hardline radicals felt bamboozled and started firing at commercial ships and, well, here we are now!

Vance is very disappointed in the Iranians, maybe even in the cool new super-friends he's made in the IRGC. "The simple deal was," he said, "we lift the blockade, and the Iranians stop shooting at ships, and that's the easiest but the most important end of the bargain for the Iranians to keep. And so far, I would give them an F on, or at least a D minus, on keeping their end of the bargain."

(Earlier in the call, Kushner said: "Iran is showing a lot of signs of wanting to make this deal.")

But what if it all falls apart? Not to worry, Vance assured reporters, "it's not a forever war if the Iranians violate the terms of the agreement and shoot commercial shipping, and and we respond to it."

They can shoot, we can shoot, and this can go on indefinitely -- but no forever war. Got that? Please don't put in the newspaper this is a forever war.

What else did J.D. Vance say yesterday?

Remember the Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU), or "nuclear dust" (it's not dust), to which Trump often alludes? Removing or destroying HEU was one of the objectives of Operation Epic Fury. Except Trump suggested weeks ago -- round about the time said it'd be very unfair to leave Iran without an arsenal of ballistic missiles (even though doing so was another stated objective of the war) -- that he might not even bother trying to remove the HEU from Iran at all, as the stuff was not very "valuable."

Vance now hints at leaving the HEU right where it is; the U.S. might just entomb it: "You know, look, either they're going to give us the nuclear dust, or we have very low-cost military options to ensure that it remains buried underground forever." (The reporter who asked about this noted that the U.S. might have just used such a low-cost military option earlier in the campaign but didn't because it expected to exfiltrate the HEU somehow.)

Vance was also queried about reported Israeli intelligence suggesting that the Iranians are still plotting to assassinate Trump. "On on the question of what Israeli intelligence about assassination slots and so forth," he responded, "I've seen the same public reporting that you guys have seen. I'm not going to comment on, you know, private conversations that have been had between you know leaders in our government and leaders in their government. What I will say with great confidence is Donald Trump is not a person who makes decisions based on fear or based on threats to his personal safety."

With great confidence, he says that.

Donald Trump posted to TruthSocial last night, about eight hours after this background briefing, about what happens in the event Iran assassinates him or tries to assassinate him: "1000 Missiles are Locked and Loaded and aimed at the Islamic Republic of Iran, with thousands of more to immediately follow, should the Iranian Government act on its threat, pronounced in many corners of the Globe, to assassinate, or attempt to assassinate, the sitting President of the United States of America, in this case, ME!"

We are therefore invited to believe that J.D. Vance, who would succeed Donald Trump as president of the United States in the event of Trump's assassination by the Iranian government, is prepared to fire these thousand missiles at Iran. But not in a forever war kind of way, mind you.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

A 25-year old married couple earning $150k will pay over $3k more in federal income tax in 2026 than a 65-year old married couple with the same income.

(note: assumes no social security - 65-year old couple is waiting to age 70 to get max benefit).

This is a fair tax policy?

[Mister Macro @MacroholicsAnon]

@WeTheBrandon @TuckerCarlson Thanks Brandon

[Al Carns @AlistairCarns]

THE FIVE TESTS

For weeks I've argued that this party, and this country, needs a proper debate about where we go next. Not a reshuffle. Not a few degrees of course correction. The big, difficult, honest choices we've spent thirty years avoiding.

A few people have asked me what that debate should actually be about. Fair enough. I spent 24 years in the Marines and two in government, and I resigned because I couldn't win the argument I believed in from the inside. So let me make it here, plainly.

This isn't a manifesto, but a set of five tests. Anyone asking to lead our country should be able to look down this list and say yes to all five.

1️⃣ ⁠The Frontline Test
Do we give the people on the frontline the kit they need to do the job, and stand by them when the job is done?

I joined the Marines at 18. I've buried friends. So I do take this one personally.

I sat in government and watched us write a defence plan for a world that no longer exists, discussed in rooms I was kept out of. A 100k drone is now sinking warships that cost a billion. That is the reality of the wars being fought right now.

Passing this means 3% of GDP as the floor, not the ceiling. Buying for the next war, not the last. And fixing the Legacy Act so blokes in their seventies aren't back in the dock for what they were cleared of decades ago.

2️⃣ The Next-Generation Test
Are we handing the next generation a better deal than the one we inherited, or a worse one?

I'm a lad from a tough part of Aberdeen. My mum raised five of us through some bleak years. The only reason I got out was because I was given an opportunity. That cannot be said for young people today.

Nearly a million young people, around one in eight, are now outside work, education or training. That isn't their failure. It's ours.

Fixing this means a NEETs and youth unemployment target with a date, the youth guarantee delivered not just announced. Restoring the link between work and a decent life for the under 30s, on housing, wages and opportunity. Skills and apprenticeship numbers that beat the last government, not just match it.

Talent is everywhere in this country. Opportunity isn't. Fix that and you fix half of everything else...

3️⃣ ⁠The Trillion-Pound Test
Is the plan to add a trillion pounds to what Britain earns, or to manage the decline more politely?

Here's the lesson I learned from Ukraine and in government, and it never changes. We invent things. Other countries build them. Other countries decide. We're brilliant at the first mile and absent for the next ninety nine.

So set a target and be judged on it. A trillion pounds added to our GDP within a decade. Yes, it's ambitious. We should be ambitious!

Getting there means backing the high tech inventors just as much as the high street traders. Your local coffee shop shouldn't be paying more tax per cappuccino than Starbucks does. So why on earth do they?

It means an industrial strategy worth the name. Things to make and things to sell, in Barrow, in Derby, in every region. Our industrial base is national security, so we should fund it like it.

And it means building the chips and the compute here, not inventing the breakthrough and watching someone else scale it. Data is the new gunpowder.

4️⃣ The 10% Test
Can we make the country work 10% better, instead of only ever asking for 10% more?

I saw this from the inside. We patch the symptom this year, but the bill grows next year, and we end up paying for failure at the most expensive end of every system.

A 10% improvement in outcomes across a handful of our biggest problems, ill health, reoffending, wasted potential, would free up somewhere between £40 and £60 billion a year. We're already paying those costs. We just pay them too late, when they're at their worst.

Passing this means investing early instead of paying far more later, and having the honesty to admit that not every pound we spend today delivers an immediate return.

5️⃣ ⁠The Lights-On Test
Does our energy policy keep the lights on, the bills down and factories open, or do we keep chasing a target and hope the rest sorts itself out?

For years we've treated net zero as the only goal, and everything else, your bill, our industry, whether the grid even stays up, as a problem for later. That’s the wrong way around.

Make energy security the goal. Power that people, businesses, and industry can afford, and a grid that stays on when someone tries to switch it off. Do that and net zero follows. Chase the target on its own, and you end up with neither.

Passing this means a serious baseload, nuclear and the North Sea, built in time to matter. Strong countries have cheap, secure energy. Weak countries don't.

None of this is complicated. It's the oldest deal there is. You serve the country, the country stands by you. In uniform, in a hospital, in a classroom, on a building site. Right now that deal is broken, and everyone keeping our country going can feel it.

That broken deal is the real reason for the frustration out there. It's why trust has drained out of politics. And it's why our party that won a landslide is, halfway through the term, already arguing about who leads it.

But changing the person at the top fixes nothing if we don't fix the deal underneath. Swap one leader for another and leave the deal broken, and we'll be right back here in eighteen months, asking the same question all over again.

So I'm not interested in who gets what job. I'm interested in whether we've got the courage to pass these tests.

We've been promised a debate. This is my opening offer to it. And if that debate ever becomes a contest, it should be fought on this ground, not on personalities.

I know where I stand.

[Richard Hanania @RichardHanania]

To save the financial health of the country country, we don’t even need to cut benefits to old people. Literally all we need to do is slow the growth in the rate we’re shoveling money to them. It takes so little, but the gerontocracy is so strong that even that seems hard.

[Energy Headline News @OilHeadlineNews]

Jared Kushner’s private equity firm, Affinity Partners, is actively seeking to raise $5 billion or more in new funding from Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds. - New York Times

[Thomas Massie @RepThomasMassie]

The irony of Republicans controlling all branches of government while

bankrupting the country, starting a war, sending money to fraudulent programs, violating the Constitution, giving corporations immunity...

but arguing that the biggest problem we have is “stolen elections.”