Mads Kristensen

AG trader | Commodity enthusiast | TA nerd | Tweeting my view on the oilseed and grain markets - not advices!

[Mads Kristensen @MadsKri]

Probability of a Super El Niño end of this year is increasing. I have collected some charts showing the usual impacts of an El Niño and linked to sources. #wheat #corn #Soy #Oilseed #canola #OATT 🧵

[Mads Kristensen @MadsKri]

#AG spreads have been widening for quite some time, and now the break in the market seems to follow. #Corn started the party, more to come in #soybeans #meal and #palmoil etc.? Credit to @MarexGlobal for the illustration. #OATT

[Mads Kristensen @MadsKri]

@ABoyGrainsFr Totally agree...

[Mads Kristensen @MadsKri]

...and for the past 4 years Funds have been square rapeseed by end of august. Fund's sentiment might be different this year due high crude/rso prices but will it last, and will it be sufficient to support Aug over Nov? #Oilseeds #OATT

[Mads Kristensen @MadsKri]

#Rapeseed Q/X spread is starting to move and Investment Funds are holding a record net long position in #rapeseeds by # of contracts and 44% of total OI. Harvest is approaching in about a month and with expiry of Q funds are forced into liquidation/spreading.

[Mads Kristensen @MadsKri]

From a seasonal perspective June/Juli is bearish for Q/X spread.

[Mads Kristensen @MadsKri]

Investment Funds continuing to pile into #Rapeseed reaching new all time high net long position. From an open interest perspective investment funds gross long holdings are hovering around 50%.

[Mads Kristensen @MadsKri]

Hog margins in China are in decline, so are sow inventory which is not supporting demand. Stocks does not really seem to be a problem anywhere. Market acting as this potential China Deal is all new demand. Either Trump is bluffing the market or SAM bean basis will deteriorate.

[Mads Kristensen @MadsKri]

🧵Help me out a bit here to explain the SnD numbers in #Soybeans. If China is back to import $14 bln. worth of US soybean, let's call it 25MMT.
#OATT

[Mads Kristensen @MadsKri]

US will need to increase exports by 18MMT from approx. 7MMT 2025. Brz will be the main loser and their export should decline almost equally. But keep in mind Brz production in '27 is projected to be up 30MMT from 2024, 15MMT from 2025 and some 6MMT YoY.

[Mads Kristensen @MadsKri]

Investment funds continues to hold a around record net long position in #rapeseed. From a seasonal perspective quite unusual. Liquidation incoming as EU harvest will slowly start to progress in about a month? #OATT #Oilseeds

[Mads Kristensen @MadsKri]

@CommodMkt @threadreaderapp unroll

[Mads Kristensen @MadsKri]

@thorborg @HjalteOlsen Som “Take the money and run” hvor orginalt 🙄

[Mads Kristensen @MadsKri]

US crush is oil-led and thus almost every single kilo of additional #meal production will go for export. No cheap meal coming out of 'expensive' beans, but competition for meal exports likely to increase soon.

[Mads Kristensen @MadsKri]

For 26/27 #USDA is raising US #soybean crush by 3MMT to 65MMT. At the same time #Brazil soybean crop proj. up 6MMT to 186 with crush 61,5->65. #Argentina up 2MMT to 50MMT with crush 41,5->43.

[Mads Kristensen @MadsKri]

While US crush is increasing they are losing market share for soybean exports.

[Mads Kristensen @MadsKri]

@247dotAg Scary illustration.
https://t.co/ZBFgLdDAKQ

[Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson]

The normalcy bias we're all experiencing for global sea-surface temperatures becomes apparent if we look at the graph of SSTs 1982-2026 and remove the last three years 2023, 2024, 2025 from the picture:

[Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson]

The normalcy bias we're all experiencing for global sea-surface temperatures becomes apparent if we look at the graph of SSTs 1982-2026 and remove the last three years 2023, 2024, 2025 from the picture:

[Frans Köster @franskoster070]

#EUDR: European Commission just published simplification review of EU Deforestation Regulation. https://t.co/lBrhNdlyxT