MAGIC

Legendary Analyst • Master of Charts • Economist • Crypto, Stock, and Options Trader

[MAGIC @MagicPoopCannon]

Crypto may stall out around here, as #BTC runs into the midline of a red falling weekly Gaussian channel, as well as lateral resistance from late 2025. The similar setup in 2023 lead to several months of sideways chop.

[MAGIC @MagicPoopCannon]

#BTC appears to be forming an inverted head and shoulders/cup and handle (in blue.) We appear to be on the verge of breaking out, as BTC continued to push above the AVWAP from the all-time high (in black.) A confirmed breakout could easily challenge $100K.

[MAGIC @MagicPoopCannon]

#BTC remains overall bearish after breakind down below the neckline (red trendline) of a head and shoulders pattern, and also currently trades below tye 200 MA (in purple.) It is trading above the AVWAP from 2022 low, but overall bearish ATM.

[MAGIC @MagicPoopCannon]

Prepare for a return of rising interest rates in the US.

https://t.co/XMAr1uUoNd

[MAGIC @MagicPoopCannon]

@IGN Pfff. Knowing @Bungie, it would probably be all gay.

[MAGIC @MagicPoopCannon]

#BTC and #crypto bottom potential here depends entirely on this–the #SPX holding support on the top of the red channel breakout retest. If the SPX holds support here and heads higher, it will definitely increase the odds of a relief rally in crypto.

[MAGIC @MagicPoopCannon]

FYI, the 61.8% retrace wasn't techncially touched yet. BTC got very close, but it's actually at around 57831.5 USD.

[MAGIC @MagicPoopCannon]

#BTC has a bullish weekly RSI divergence, and it has just tagged the 61.8% fibonacci retrace for the 2022-2025 bull market, which is also converging with the AVWAP from the 2022 low. BTC is on major support with a bullish RSI dev. Perhaps I've been too bearish.

[MAGIC @MagicPoopCannon]

@PhJaffe Technically, yes. BTC could have an absolute meltdown to drag the RSI low enough to cancel the divergence before the week ends. However, given that it is on the 61.8% retrace/2022 low AVWAP, and given the decline necessary to cancel RSI divergence, I think it is very unlikely.

[MAGIC @MagicPoopCannon]

@smolKevinWcrumb Haha touché.

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

Eyes Up, Guardians 🇺🇸

[MAGIC @MagicPoopCannon]

@WhiteHouse OMG WTF is this real??? 😆 👏 🇺🇸

[MAGIC @MagicPoopCannon]

https://t.co/xWDCt8eMZ5

GM and Ford have been tapped by the Federal Government for military weapons manufacturing—a testimate to the severity of US munitions depletion and necessity, considering the Ai arms race IMO. This is a very interesting development.

[MAGIC @MagicPoopCannon]

The biggest potential black swan is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Chinese state media have noted US munitions stockpile depletion in the wake of the Iran war as a vulnerability, as Chinese military drills increase. Taiwan produces over 90% of world's most elite semiconductors.

[MAGIC @MagicPoopCannon]

@TWICHISTE Exactly

[MAGIC @MagicPoopCannon]

#BTC is right on the 50 month moving average right now, which has been relatively supportive in the past. I mostly expect this level to be broken, but it is worth monitoring for support.

[MAGIC @MagicPoopCannon]

As Q-Day approaches, the probability of investors fleeing crypto will increase until solid defenses are implemented. This will lead to rising capital flight from cryptos that aren't protected, possibly creating to the worst crypto bear market and reset of all time.

[MAGIC @MagicPoopCannon]

Over the next few months, I believe that #BTC and crypto will be cut in half. BTC should break below 30K, #ETH could reach 800, and most other cryptos appear set for a 50% decline or worse.

[MAGIC @MagicPoopCannon]

My base case now is that the equity markets are going to fall substantially lower, and crypto is going to fall in sync. If the stock market does enter a moderate bear market, I think we will eventually see BTC at 30K, likely sometime between now and October.

[MAGIC @MagicPoopCannon]

@mcminn_bill As you can see, it has historically been a fantastic idea to buy at or near the 200 day moving average for the long-term, which is exactly where we are now with a bullish weekly RSI divergence. Not saying it's a definite bottom, but it certainly looks appealing for long-term.

[MAGIC @MagicPoopCannon]

#BTC is attempting to hold the 200 week moving average (in purple) while printing a bullish divergence on the RSI. This could indicate a bottoming process.