📅 Set your reminder. June 4: The PDT rule will be eliminated, and the $25,000 minimum account balance requirement will officially end.
What it means for you: We will be wiping all past PDT flags clean. Soon, customers will be able to trade on Robinhood without worrying about day trading limits again.
The difference between a "good" performance and retiring early is:
How long you hold your winners...
Most traders don't have an issue with finding winners its holding them that's the issue.
They take 5-10% gains on stocks that eventually move 50-100% because they’re uncomfortable with open profit.
Meanwhile they’ll hold losers for months hoping to “get back to even.”
The biggest money in trading is made by sitting through healthy consolidations in true market leaders.
Strong stocks will:
• pull back
• shake people out
• test moving averages
• consolidate after expansion
That doesn’t automatically mean the trend is over.
Everyone wants to make 1000%+ returns on the best stocks..
BUT
Do you have balls to hold if the stock goes up 100%, then pulls back 50%?
If the character of the stock remains intact:
• volume stays constructive
• key EMAs hold
• relative strength remains strong
…then the best move is often patience.
One great stock held correctly can outperform 20 small trades.
4/5 sessions have seen more names down 4% versus up. 5 day ratio staying on red.
Also starting to see a slight pickup in name down 25% for the month. Highest reading since April 2nd.
A big jump in stock down 13% over the last month. this speaks to the narrowing breadth. Highest since April 2nd
Even names above their 50sma. A slow fade since we saw that expansion in the last two weeks of April.
This should serve as a reminder to FOCUS ON LEADERSHIP and ignore mostly everything else.
That said, market has narrowing leadership and should be viewed as a yellow flag. Let winners work and mind your position sizing on new merchandise!
My BTC prediction market bot is now live on Kalshi 📈
104 paper trades to validate the model first. 52% win rate, +$137 P&L on a $100 bankroll.
Built on GBM pricing, Deribit IV, drift terms, and Kelly Criterion sizing. Weeklies still paper until they prove out.
#Kalshi#BTC
Fun fact: my $BTC bot wins less than 50% of trades but is still up +$123 💡
Proof that risk/reward matters more than win rate. 74/100 trades done.
almost ready to go live! #Bitcoin#Kalshi
Fun fact: my $BTC bot wins less than 50% of trades but is still up +$123 💡
Proof that risk/reward matters more than win rate. 74/100 trades done.
almost ready to go live! #Bitcoin#Kalshi
Bot update: full data review.
W/L ratio is 5.5x avg win $5.61, avg loss $1.02. The edge is real, just needed the optimizer to stop locking the bot out of trades (it had crept to 17% 😅)
Fixed it. Bounded range now: 9–13%, gradual steps.
+$81.53 P&L | 40% win rate
#Kalshi#BTC
BTC bot update: fixed critical bugs
Kelly sizing was wrong for short trades, optimizer wasn’t saving changes, and added fee-adjusted edges. Running clean for the first time. (Bugs will show w/ time)
+$4.83 P&L
Newest trade placed with highest edge yet at 19%! #Kalshi#BTC
BTC bot update: fixed critical bugs
Kelly sizing was wrong for short trades, optimizer wasn’t saving changes, and added fee-adjusted edges. Running clean for the first time. (Bugs will show w/ time)
+$4.83 P&L
Newest trade placed with highest edge yet at 19%! #Kalshi#BTC
Update: critical bugs were fixed.
Post-event vol window wasn’t triggering, SELL YES trades were overstating edge, & optimizer was ratcheting up but barely coming back down.
Model is cleaner now! Now waiting on it to complete 50 paper trades and optimize it from there. #BTCbot
Update: critical bugs were fixed.
Post-event vol window wasn’t triggering, SELL YES trades were overstating edge, & optimizer was ratcheting up but barely coming back down.
Model is cleaner now! Now waiting on it to complete 50 paper trades and optimize it from there. #BTCbot
Update: the bot just closed its first winning trade!
Rebuilt the model with GBM probability pricing, Deribit implied vol, & Kelly sizing. It’s much smarter now and waits for real edge instead of forcing trades.
Will paper trade it for a while but looks promising! #Kalshi
Update: the bot just closed its first winning trade!
Rebuilt the model with GBM probability pricing, Deribit implied vol, & Kelly sizing. It’s much smarter now and waits for real edge instead of forcing trades.
Will paper trade it for a while but looks promising! #Kalshi
Built a trading bot (using Claude) to trade Bitcoin prices on Kalshi. It’s designed to learn from live data and only trade during high-volume market hours. Excited to see how it improves with every paper trade and if it’s profitable eventually! Join me on this journey! #ClaudeAI
Built a trading bot (using Claude) to trade Bitcoin prices on Kalshi. It’s designed to learn from live data and only trade during high-volume market hours. Excited to see how it improves with every paper trade and if it’s profitable eventually! Join me on this journey! #ClaudeAI