For 36 consecutive years, Punjab has produced more wheat than it consumes.
I analysed wheat production data from 1990–91 to 2026–27, and the findings challenge many common assumptions about Pakistan's wheat crisis.
Punjab's wheat production has increased from 10.5 million tonnes in 1990–91 to 21.9 million tonnes in 2026–27.
The record harvest was 24.24 million tonnes in 2025–26.
This growth did not come from expanding cultivated area.
Punjab has kept wheat cultivation between 14 and 17.4 million acres for over three decades. Higher production came from better yields through improved seed, fertiliser and mechanisation.
The challenge is population.
Punjab's population has grown from around 60 million to 138 million. As a result, per capita wheat availability has fallen from 176 kg to 159 kg despite record production.
Even so, Punjab has recorded a wheat surplus every single year since 1990.
The annual surplus has never dropped below 2.4 million tonnes and currently stands at 3.89 million tonnes.
That surplus feeds more than Punjab.
It helps meet shortages in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan, parts of Sindh, and also accounts for wheat flowing into Afghanistan.
Yet Pakistan imported wheat in 22 of the last 36 years, including four consecutive years from 2020–21 to 2023–24.
Imports have been banned since July 2024.
The data suggests Pakistan's wheat problem is not a lack of production in Punjab.
The real issues are:
• Demand from deficit provinces
• Cross-border leakage
• Inadequate strategic reserves
• Poor procurement and release timing
Policy should focus on fixing these structural issues۔
کیونکہ کسان کو مارکیٹ سے 3500 روپے سے زیادہ ریٹ ملا اس لئے کسان مارکیٹ میں بیچ رہا اور بیچا بھی ۔ اس کی جنس ہے اس کی مرضی جس کو بھی اپنی پسند کے ریٹ پر بیچے۔ گندم 2020 سے 2023 چار سال لگاتار 12 ملین ٹن امپورٹ ہوئ ۔ 1990 سے اب تک 22 سال امپورٹ ہوئ اور 46 ملین ٹن ہوئ ۔
بھائ بٹ صاحب اپنی خبر پر clarification دے چکے۔ 40 لاکھ ٹن گندم کا مطلب ہے 8 کروڑ بیگ گندم ۔۔ کہاں غائب ہوئ ؟ کس نے یہ بتایا ؟ کوئ علم نہیں ۔ بس ایک factually incorrect خبر چلی اور سب کاپی پیسٹ کر کے چل پڑے ۔ افسوس