WellThatMakesSense

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[WellThatMakesSense @MakesYouSmarter]

Mtg Today (AM) 09/25
10-yr yield 5.188% +44bp this mo; 30yr MBS 6.0 only +0.32pts. Data crushed forecasts, pushing terminal rate to 4.86%. Lock/float decision hinges on today’s UMich & Fed speakers—full levels & guidance at https://t.co/safIvoS9px

[WellThatMakesSense @MakesYouSmarter]

Mtg Today (AM) 09/24
10yr Treasury +14bp to 5.125% pushed FNCL 19bp higher to 6.22%. Par note now 7.125%. Volatility high—lock if you can; float only on a confirmed rally.
https://t.co/safIvoS9px

[WellThatMakesSense @MakesYouSmarter]

Mtg Today (AM) 09/23 30yr MBS -0.22pt; 10yr at 4.988%—rates up, lock bias. Watch 4.93-5.01 range & oil headlines. https://t.co/safIvoS9px

[WellThatMakesSense @MakesYouSmarter]

Mtg Today (AM) 09/21
10-yr at 4.96% after Fed hike; MBS +0.11-0.22 pts. Yields testing 4.94-5.00% resistance—lock/float still neutral. Watch for next week break.
https://t.co/safIvoS9px

[WellThatMakesSense @MakesYouSmarter]

Mtg Today (AM) 09/18 10yr yield 4.986% +5.3bps. MBS 5.5s off 0.36. Fed hawkish tilt + sticky yields = rates moving higher for clients. Lock discipline over float. https://t.co/safIvoS9px

[WellThatMakesSense @MakesYouSmarter]

Mtg Today (AM) 09/17
UMBS 6.0s at 99.82 after Fed 4.00% hike. Yields fell to 4.97% this AM but hawkish dots still cloud direction. Originators face repricing risk—defensive float advised until momentum clarifies.
https://t.co/safIvoS9px

[WellThatMakesSense @MakesYouSmarter]

Mtg Today (AM) 09/16
UMBS 6.0 coupon +0.18 at 99.70 while 10yr yield holds 4.979%. Modest MBS bid ahead of 2pm FOMC. Lock/float call hinges on Warsh tone—full levels + guidance on blog.
https://t.co/safIvoS9px

[WellThatMakesSense @MakesYouSmarter]

Mtg Today (AM) 09/14
10yr yield hits 4.992% after CPI surprise, MBS 5.5s drop 0.22 pts. Snowball selling means lock now—rates worse for clients, not floating. Full levels + Fed watch at https://t.co/safIvoS9px

[WellThatMakesSense @MakesYouSmarter]

Mtg Today (AM) 09/11
MBS 5.5 coupon +0.23 to 97.68 on hotter CPI; 10-yr yield 4.933%. 30-yr mortgage 7.07%. Fed hike odds at 90% next week. Lock now—more critical levels & float risk inside.
https://t.co/safIvoS9px

[WellThatMakesSense @MakesYouSmarter]

Mtg Today (AM) 09/10/2026
UMBS 5.5s fell 0.58 pts, 10-yr yield at 4.92% as oil spikes & PPI beat. Defensive lock bias unless inflation data today shifts momentum. More levels & lock/float guidance inside.
https://t.co/safIvoS9px

[WellThatMakesSense @MakesYouSmarter]

Mtg Today (AM) 09/09/2026: 10yr yield 4.81% +1.4bp, MBS 5.0s -0.1pt. 30yr fixed 6.85%. Lock/float guidance in post.
https://t.co/safIvoS9px

[WellThatMakesSense @MakesYouSmarter]

Mtg Today (AM) 09/08
MBS flat despite 10-yr yield at 4.80%. CPI/PPI this week decide lock vs float.
https://t.co/safIvoS9px

[WellThatMakesSense @MakesYouSmarter]

Mtg Today (AM) 09/04/2026
Jobs beat 162k → MBS 5.5s -17 ticks to 98.79, 10yr 4.79%. Rates jumped to 6.71%. Lock now—next week's CPI could push 7%. More on pipeline impact: https://t.co/safIvoS9px

[WellThatMakesSense @MakesYouSmarter]

Mtg Today (AM) 09/02: 30-yr MBS 5.5s at 98.73 (+0.06) but 10-yr yield stuck at 4.79%—rates not easing yet. Lock/float signals inside. https://t.co/safIvoS9px

[WellThatMakesSense @MakesYouSmarter]

Mtg Today (AM) 09/01
10-yr at 4.78% highest since Jan 2025, MBS 5.0 coupon -0.25 to 96.25. Bond selloff accelerating on Warsh hawkish signals + oil spike; 70% odds of Sept hike. Lock/float guidance and levels to watch on the blog.
https://t.co/safIvoS9px

[WellThatMakesSense @MakesYouSmarter]

Mtg Today (AM) 08/31
Warsh hawkish tilt: 10yr +3.5bp to 4.748%, MBS 5.5s off 0.13. Skeptics doubt Sept hike—rates risk rising until bonds prove otherwise. Lock/float details inside.
https://t.co/safIvoS9px

[WellThatMakesSense @MakesYouSmarter]

Mtg Today (AM) 08/28
10yr yield 4.69% +1.3bp, MBS down. Rates at 6.66%. Jackson Hole speech at 10am could tip lock/float. Watch 4.67% yield ceiling. https://t.co/safIvoS9px

[WellThatMakesSense @MakesYouSmarter]

Mtg Today (AM) 08/27 - MBS slipped overnight as yields climbed above 4.66% on resilient jobs data. 203k claims beat forecasts, signaling labor strength that keeps Fed on hold. Jackson Hole starts today with Warsh speaking. Treasury buybacks add $2B support but skeptics doubt impa

[WellThatMakesSense @MakesYouSmarter]

Mtg Today (AM) 08/26 - PCE came in hotter than expected, 10yr yield jumped 2.4bps to 4.65%, and MBS prices slipped as traders positioned for softer inflation. Mortgage apps fell 1% with 30yr fixed hitting 6.78%. Strong durable goods orders + cooling home sales add to Fed uncertai