Ari Mamshae

PhD | Political Science, Public Administration/Policy | Formerly @UniofOxford's @BlavatnikSchool & @UKH_official & @Kurdistan

[Ari Mamshae @Mamshae]

Can't be happier than casting my vote for #YesKurdistan in #KurdistanReferendum. Bjit Kurd, bjit Kurdistan. Viva #Kurdistan.

[Miad Maleki @miadmaleki]

1/10 The U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would cost Iran approximately $276M/day in lost exports and disrupt $159M/day in imports, a combined economic damage of ~$435M/day, or $13B/month.

Over 90% of Iran's $109.7B in annual trade transits the Persian Gulf. Oil/gas accounts for 80% of government export earnings and 23.7% of GDP. Kharg Island alone generates ~$53B/year, or as I noted to @TIME, "$78 billion a year in energy revenue.

[Emmanuel Macron @EmmanuelMacron]

Je viens de m’entretenir avec le Président de la région autonome du Kurdistan irakien Nechirvan Barzani.

Je lui ai fait part de mon soutien à la suite de l’attaque inacceptable qui a visé sa résidence à Dohouk ce matin. Ce développement très préoccupant s’ajoute à une recrudescence des attaques contre les institutions irakiennes, comme celle qui a causé la mort de six Peshmergas cette semaine et pour laquelle j’ai fait adressé au Président Barzani toutes mes condoléances.

La souveraineté de l’Irak, et du Kurdistan en son sein, sont indispensables à la stabilité régionale. Tout doit être fait pour éviter que l’Irak ne soit entraîné dans l’escalade en cours. La France demeure aux côtés de ses partenaires irakiens.

[Masrour Barzani @masrourbarzani]

I strongly condemn the hostile and traitorous attack on Peshmerga bases last night, which resulted in 6 brave Peshmergas being martyred and 30 others wounded.

I offer my condolences to the proud families of the martyrs and wish for recovery for the injured.

[Amberin Zaman @amberinzaman]

Türk şirketi Repkon ABD kolu aracılığıyla İsrail’e ağır bombalar tedarik ediyor.

[Emmanuel Macron @EmmanuelMacron]

پەیوەندییەکی تەلەفۆنی-م لەگەڵ سەرۆکی هەرێمی کوردستانی عیراق نێچیرڤان بارزانی ئەنجامدا.

پابەندی فەرەنسا-م بۆ سەقامگیری و ئاسایشی عیراق، لە چوارچێوەکەشیدا هەرێمی کوردستان، دووپات کردەوە. هەروەها هاوسۆزی خۆم بەرامبەر هێرشەکانی چەند رۆژی رابردوو بۆ بەرێزیان دەربڕی.

هاوڕابووین لە بەردەوامیدان بە هەوڵەکانمان بۆ رێگریکردن لە پەرەسەندنی ملمڵانێی
ناوچەکە. بۆ ئەم مەبەستەش، سوپاسی بەرێزیان-م کرد بۆ پابەندیان بەو ئاراستەیە.

فەرەنسا لە پشتیوانیکردن لە رێزگرتنی تەواوی سەروەری و ئاسایش و یەکپارچەیی عیراق، بە کوردستان-یشەوە، بەردەوام دەبێت.

[Ari Mamshae @Mamshae]

@amberinzaman @firstladyofiraq Maybe she’s just courting Iranian influence to help re-elect her outgoing husband?

[Mohammed A. Salih @MohammedASalih]

Given the quantity of false information being published these days, it is not clear whether this characterization of the conversation between President Trump and Kurdish leaders is accurate.

But assuming that it is, there would have to be a quid pro quo that solidifies a U.S.–Kurdish partnership.

In return for such support on the part of the Kurds, the U.S., together with its Western and regional allies, should grant the Kurdistan Region a special status akin to—or close to—that of Taiwan, perhaps in the form of a confederal relationship within Iraq.

The Kurdistan Region should be placed under full, permanent U.S./NATO military protection.

The U.S. should also help train and build a capable, well-equipped Kurdistan military.

The KRG should be allowed to autonomously develop and export its economic resources, including energy, without obstacles.

Secure a UN status for Kurdistan similar to the Palestinian Authority, for the time being.

And importantly, Turkey should be brought on board with such an arrangement.

Without such measures and guarantees, the Kurds might find themselves cornered and at risk of losing everything.

[Ari Mamshae @Mamshae]

It is pure naivety for so-called experts to buy into this nonsense. No student of Middle Eastern Studies 101 would fall for it.

[Jennifer Griffin @JenGriffinFNC]

Thousands of Iraqi Kurds have launched a ground offensive in Iran: US official tells Fox.
@FoxNews

[Ari Mamshae @Mamshae]

If others are ready, they should jump on board. But support for Iranian Kurdish parties must come with clear terms: non-abandonment commitments, recognition of Kurdish political goals, and no repeat of betrayals that history is full of. Kurds have earned the right to demand that.

[Ari Mamshae @Mamshae]

The statist hegemonists of Iranian, Turkish, and Arab persuasion are so obsessed with the latest Iranian Kurdish armed movements that they are missing two things: the formidable organizational capacity armed mobilization requires, and the sheer guts it takes to follow through.

[Ari Mamshae @Mamshae]

Obviously the Kurds are self-driven, rooted in ethnic, cultural, and political rights, geographically anchored in Kurdistan. If outside powers support them to weaken the Iranian regime, that's no cause for anguish. Who else is ready to put boots on the ground? Please come forward

[Amberin Zaman @amberinzaman]

The Iranian Kurdish coalition is asking the United States to establish a no-fly zone over the Kurdish areas to provide air cover for potential future operations and, above all, to prove its commitment. https://t.co/aWtMlfwRub via @AlMonitor

[Becky Anderson @BeckyCNN]

Reza Pahlavi seems to have new competition as he makes his pitch to lead Iran. @AlirezaNader tells me why President Trump reportedly called Kurdish leaders in Iraq and what it means for the former Shah’s son.

[Kamaran Palani @KamaranMPalani]

Regarding Trump’s call with Barzani and Talabani, I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that this is one of the most consequential moments in modern Kurdish history. Any miscalculation could lead to major losses; a sound calculation, however, could also bring significant gains.

Below are a few thoughts:
▪️Both the KDP and PUK have influence over Iranian Kurdish parties. If Iranian Kurdish groups decide to take any action inside Iran, they won’t do it without consulting the KDP and PUK.

▪️Iranian Kurdish groups have three main concerns about taking action in Iran. First, they are uncertain about and do not fully trust the US and Israel; they fear Iran would retaliate and carry out massacres against Kurds in Rojhelat. Second, Iran could also destabilise Iraqi Kurdistan. Third, these groups believe they should not be used as a tool to perpetuate the system, as both the opposition and the Islamic Republic would ultimately unite against what they call “tajziyah” (disintegration).

▪️At the same time, Iranian Kurdish groups feel that while the risks are high, so too is the opportunity. If they do not take the initiative and secure some status now, no one will grant it to them later.

▪️They are in a dilemma. If they do not take the initiative, the opportunity may pass them by. But if they do act and the US subsequently withdraws its support, they could find themselves at the mercy of Tehran.

▪️It is important to remember that Kurds across the region, specifically in Iran, are seeking political status within existing states, not “separation”.

▪️It is wrong to think of the Kurds as tools to be exploited. They pursue their own interests, and recent US policies in Syria have not helped.

[Lindsey Graham @LindseyGrahamSC]

Watching the deteriorating situation in Syria with great concern. The Kurds are under threat from the new Syrian government that is aligned with Turkey.

It would be a disaster for America’s reputation and national security interests to abandon the Kurds, who were the chief ally in destroying the ISIS caliphate.

Therefore, I will be introducing legislation this week designed to impose crippling sanctions on any government or group engaged in hostilities against the Kurds. The Save the Kurds Act, I believe, will receive strong bipartisan support and must have teeth to make it effective.

Stay tuned.

[Mutlu Civiroglu @mutludc]

Moments ago, I received a direct distress signal and video footage from local journalist Hevidar Herani inside #Kobani

The Situation:
Hevidar reports that #Kobane is now under total siege.

• Blackout: Water and electricity have been cut. The internet was severed shortly before she managed to send this file.

• The Threat: Extremist forces are closing in on the city center. This is a targeted campaign of revenge against the city that historically defeated #ISIS in 2014.

• Humanitarian Crisis: Civilians, including children and the elderly, are trapped in darkness.

Analysis:

The vengeance against Kobani is palpable. The forces encircling the city are seeking to undo the symbolic and strategic victory the #Kurds achieved against global terrorism.

By cutting off life support systems, they are weaponizing basic necessities against a population that stood as the world's frontline defense.

The Call:
Hevidar’s message to me was clear: "World Must Stand up for Kobani."

This is a verified SOS. The international community must act before the 2014 massacres are repeated. #Syria

[Kamaran Palani @KamaranMPalani]

US policy in Syria is not aligned with what it hopes to achieve in Iraq. If disarming militias and curbing Iranian influence are key objectives in Iraq, its disastrous Syria policy offers no help. Just a few weeks ago, there was momentum in Iraq toward dissolving militias. Now, however, I expect strong resistance, not only politically but also among the broader population, against any attempt to disarm them. US policy in Syria has inadvertently reinforced the perception that these militias are necessary.

[Farhad Shami @farhad_shami]

Official Statement Regarding Al-Hol Camp
Due to the international indifference toward the issue of the ISIS terrorist organization and the failure of the international community to assume its responsibilities in addressing this serious matter, our forces were compelled to withdraw from Al-Hol Camp and redeploy in the vicinity of cities in northern Syria that are facing increasing risks and threats.
Media Center of the Syrian Democratic Forces
20 January 2026