Simple Salaryman.

On my own journey.

[Ansem @blknoiz06]

think $MU beats on ER makes a fresh new all time high & then thats the memory top for a couple months

mag7 has already been notably weak and down off the highs, memory & semis have been carrying the market

was wrong on SpaceX strength until first major unlocks which is another sign of retail buyer exhaustion in market imo, will cut this on sustained weakness below open price at $150

capex concerns become materially more important if open source models continue to compete w/ closed source at much lower cost as we've seen this narrative accelerate over past couple months & this has not become a mainstream view yet + need to research CXMT

concerns w/ rates & inflation are real, believe bessent's comments today convey their concern w fed not cutting rates, believe that warsh removed forward guidance so that they can respond to activity in the markets & not try to calm markets ahead of time which means its likely that they will reverse course once its apparent inflationary shocks from hormuz were temporary especially if we have market weakness at the same time, gives good window from now to end of july when next fed meeting is for markets to cool off as theyve been straight vertical since end of march

crypto has been the sad kid in the corner for past two years, but believe it is in great position now with a few tailwinds that also align with ones that would make the stock market weaker, if open source ai & decentralized inference becomes a popular narrative then solana is one of the best trades to take over the next 12 months that can benefit from startups building & tokenizing products around this narra, it is the only L1 performant & cheap enough to host various applications from all different market sectors, & has consistently proven its ability to fundamentally improve underlying infra while attracting talented builders, current concerns around monetary policy & token demand vs supply are being discussed fervently with simds 123/553/550 it is much harder to build a performant chain with retail interest than it is to change monetary policy around token, if the high capex costs US tech companies are spending turn out to not be as efficient then the money from ppl taking profits there will look elsewhere & crypto gains momentum fast off the bottom currently down ~80%, last cycle sol did well mostly as a memecoin chain and clipped previous all time highs of 2021, now there is focus on perps with jtx/phoenix/bulk, focus on tcgs & breakout success with cards, focus on privacy with arcium, & two dominant tokenization platforms with heavy incentives to support protocols that arent just memecoins with metadao & pumpfun, believe sentiment around onchain apps & tokenization is at peak bottom sentiment & that there are existing protocols onchain which will do very well once sentiment flips on crypto again, & we've seen this year with hype's performance that other L1s are not dependent on btc to do well, believe sol will be an outperformer and it will catch a lot off guard in early part of trend

for bitcoin saylor & microstrategy concerns are real but theyve shown they are willing to dilute mstr holders to continue buying btc & shore up cash to pay preferreds, long btc/mstr pair seems like a good trade, but bitcoin is at very important level with 2021 previous all time highs & 200W moving average, 60k holding will mstr breaking support would be good sign for long term bottom being in

hype has been weaker on LTFs since last week, lots of narra around its strength has been from tradfi eyes & think they are more valuation sensitive than crypto traders, revenues have been mostly flat even with hip3 success & may see more consolidation until those improve meaningfully into rerating higher

overall think pump today then selloff after into beginning of Q3, think you get another chance to bid 60k btc & $60 on solana and thats the bear market low, frontrunning ppl waiting for 40ks & 40s

[The Spectator Index @spectatorindex]

BREAKING: 🇰🇷 South Korea's KOSPI index plunges by 10%

[Simple Salaryman. @ManceRayder_ff]

@TheStockYogi @BdubsO37560 @TheTradingNinja Amen, trading ain’t meant to be easy

[Simple Salaryman. @ManceRayder_ff]

@Gelharneta @OscarMarrio Easily the most complete player we’ve had since Rafa. Arguably more complete than Rafa when he was playing for the whites too

[Simple Salaryman. @ManceRayder_ff]

@TheTradingNinja Another masterpiece on the 4D close

[Simple Salaryman. @ManceRayder_ff]

@TheTradingNinja Resume volatility please 😩🫡

[Simple Salaryman. @ManceRayder_ff]

@TheTradingNinja 😳😳

[EnergyUp @EnergyUp_]

A HARVARD psychologist says: “if you’ve achieved nothing by 25, you’ve avoided the most destructive illusion of youth”

[Simple Salaryman. @ManceRayder_ff]

@TheTradingNinja 🙌🏼 Your ability to put thought to paper is even more impressive than your calls out my guy. I have so much respect for how you articulate yourself.

[✒️ @Literariium]

How lucky we are to experience boring, ordinary, uneventful days. Somewhere in the world, that kind of safety is unimaginable.

[Simple Salaryman. @ManceRayder_ff]

@thetradingninja God bless you man, thank you

[Simon Sarris @simonsarris]

for better or worse the world is run by whoever shows up

[y @ysuckme]

the price you pay for ignoring your gut feeling is very expensive.

[atlas @reatlashype]

When you're eating shut your fucking mouth

made 1k in a day?
be quiet

bought a new car?
be quiet

bought a house?
be quiet

hit a 100X?
be quiet

just like Gods blessing you right now. He can take it away in an instant

[L2WTrades @L2WTrades]

talked to a guy who's been trading 23 years and manages $40M

asked him what separates traders who survive from traders who blow up

his answer surprised me

it wasn't strategy. it wasn't discipline. it wasn't psychology.

"bet sizing. that's it. that's the whole game."

here's what he explained:

THE THESIS:

"I've seen hundreds of traders come through. good ones. smart ones. talented ones."

"90% of the ones who blew up didn't blow up from bad trades. they blew up from bad sizing on normal trades."

"a 1R loss at proper size is nothing. a 1R loss at 10x proper size is account death."

THE EXAMPLES:

he walked me through case studies:

TRADER A:
- excellent strategy, 58% WR
- consistently profitable for 2 years
- had a "high conviction" trade
- sized up 5x normal position
- trade lost
- drawdown was 23% instead of 5%
- psychology cracked
- revenge traded the next week
- blew the account in 8 days

"he didn't blow up from a bad trade. he blew up from a big trade."

TRADER B:
- mediocre strategy, 51% WR
- survived for 11 years
- never sized above 0.8% per trade
- took the same size on every trade
- no "high conviction" sizing
- compounded slowly but never blew up

"he's worth $4M now. started with $50k. just never killed himself with size."

THE RULE:

"every trader who blows up violates the same rule"

"they size based on CONVICTION instead of MATH"

"'this one feels right' so they go bigger"
"'I'm on a winning streak' so they go bigger"
"'I need to make it back' so they go bigger"

"conviction is how you justify stupid sizing"

THE DATA:

he showed me internal research:

traders who sized based on conviction:
- average survival time: 2.4 years
- account explosion rate: 74%

traders who sized mathematically (same size every trade):
- average survival time: 8.3 years
- account explosion rate: 12%

"it's not even close. variable sizing kills traders."

THE MATH:

he broke down why "high conviction" sizing is stupid:

"let's say you're 60% accurate on normal trades"
"let's say you're 70% accurate on 'high conviction' trades"

"sounds good right? go bigger on the 70% trades?"

"wrong. here's why:"

"at 60% accuracy with 1% risk, a 4-loss streak costs you 4%"
"at 70% accuracy with 5% risk, a 4-loss streak costs you 20%"

"and 4-loss streaks happen even at 70% accuracy"

"you FEEL more confident but the math doesn't justify the size increase"

THE SOLUTION:

"how do you size then?"

"same size every trade. no exceptions."

"what about when you're really confident?"

"same size. confidence isn't accuracy."

"what about when the setup is perfect?"

"same size. perfect setups lose 40% of the time."

"what about when you're on a winning streak?"

"same size. streaks end."

"every trade gets the same respect. the 'boring' ones and the 'perfect' ones."

THE IMPLEMENTATION:

his rules for position sizing:

1. calculate your base risk (0.5-2% depending on account size and edge)
2. that's your risk on EVERY trade
3. never size up. ever.
4. if you want more money, scale accounts/capital. don't scale risk.

"I've been trading 23 years. I've never taken a trade above 2% risk. not once."

"my biggest winners and my 'meh' trades got the same size"

"I'm not trying to hit home runs. I'm trying to not strike out."

THE TRUTH:

retail traders think they need big trades to make big money

professionals know big trades make big losses

the traders managing real money all size conservatively

they make money through VOLUME of good trades not SIZE of individual trades

if you're varying your position size based on "conviction":
you're already on the path to blowing up

it's just a matter of when

same size
every trade
no exceptions

that's how you survive

[Dividend Talks on YouTube @DividendTalks]

JPMorgan 2026 U.S. stock “Battle Map.”

Technology
• $ANET
• $AVGO
• $KLAC
• $PANW
• $CRM
• $SNPS
• $V

Healthcare
• $LLY
• $BSX
• $CVS
• $TMO

Financials
• $SCHW
• $C
• $CBRE
• $ALL

Consumer
• $AZO
• $SBUX
• $DKNG
• $CVNA
• $CELH
• $UAL

Media & Telecom
• $GOOG / $GOOGL
• $DIS
• $DLR
• $ROKU

Energy
• $XOM
• $SLB
• $DVN
• $ETR

Industrials
• $BA
• $CAT
• $VRT

Materials
• $PPG
• $AVY

[Lordof0dte @TheTradingNinja]

🎉 NEW YEAR, NEW GAINS! 2026 GIVEAWAY 🎉

I'm giving away a 1-YEAR MEMBERSHIP to to one lucky trader! View options in a more simple approach.

To enter:
1️⃣ Follow @thetradingninja
2️⃣ Like + RT this post
3️⃣ Reply with your BIG 2026 trading goal
4️⃣ (Bonus) Tag 2 friends + #SPTP

Ends Jan 1, 2026. Winner announced Jan 1st! Good luck & let's crush 2026 together 💪📈

.

[Simple Salaryman. @ManceRayder_ff]

@thetradingninja @grok #SPTP

[Simple Salaryman. @ManceRayder_ff]

@thetradingninja @grok SPTP

[Lordof0dte @TheTradingNinja]

Giving away a free tri-month to 2 lucky people. The winner will be chosen on Christmas Day

In order to qualify you have to do the following:

1. Like
2. Retweet
3. Comment #SPTP

I will have @grok pick a random winner on December 25th at 4:44pm est good luck!