Marc Hoag

Fractional GC | Chair, @BHBA AI & Law | husband, dad | opinions != legal advice | @SkyrivenAI @FloodrouteApp @GetOribal_dev @Scribefully @AskNonna

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

Bookmark this for later and let's see if I'm right about where AI is headed. For better or worse, by 2040:

✅ Learning will be replaced by simply doing: Traditional education will shift to teaching AI direction and evaluation rather than content mastery. You'll use AI to handle most tasks with minimal preparation.

✅ Any company not fully embracing AI will be dead.

✅ AI will become mandatory in every profession — law, medicine, engineering — with human override potentially seen as introducing unnecessary bias or error. Avoiding AI assistance will be considered negligent.

✅ Human oversight for ethical decisions will persist, but as a socially imposed requirement rather than a technological limitation — AI could make these choices, but we'll keep humans involved for accountability and comfort.

✅ Copyright and patent laws will fundamentally restructure: either AI outputs gain full protection, or the economic value will shift to prompts and directions, creating new intellectual property categories.

✅ Human economic value will migrate to the "input layer" — your ability to direct AI systems will outweigh your ability to produce final work.

✅ Decision offloading will accelerate: People will delegate increasing numbers of daily decisions to AI, from meal planning to relationship advice, raising questions about autonomy and agency.

✅ Today's technical skills will become recreational: coding, data analysis, writing, and design will be appreciated hobbies rather than career necessities — similar to calligraphy or manual transmission driving today.

✅ Physical world integration: AI systems will increasingly control physical infrastructure, manufacturing, and transportation networks with minimal human supervision.

✅ Status hierarchies will invert: "human-only" work will become either a luxury statement or viewed as unnecessarily error-prone, while the most prestigious positions will involve orchestrating multiple AI systems.

✅ Cultural AI tensions will emerge: Without global standardization, AI systems will embody different cultural values and priorities, creating new forms of ideological and practical conflicts.

✅ Public vs. personal AI divide: Tension will grow between shared/public AI systems and personalized ones tailored to individual preferences, creating new forms of information bubbles and governance challenges.

✅ World superpowers will be defined by their AI capabilities.

And finally,

✅ AGI will be achieved in 2026-2028, with ASI following by 2035-2040 in line with these predictions above.

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

@Julius_Kim I’ve noticed the same a lot of the time, especially in the car while driving. At home almost always classical music.

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

@NewEnglandInfo We lived about 20 mins from there. Absolutely loved it. Only critique was that oddly it didn’t offer an expected waterfront / boardwalk type place to take a walk along the water, or to enjoy waterside meals; all waterfront was industrial/ports/warehouses.

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

Lots of kids in school used to get harnesses thinking they were cool; but the problem with a harness is that you become a roll bar if you don’t have an actual cage or bar. But if you install a cage then you need a helmet or you die by smashing your head against it. So cars don’t have cages because they would require harnesses and helmets too.

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

@levelsio God I loved this. And I don’t even like nascar’s oval tracks. But the physics engine absolutely ROCKED: supremely planted feeling, tire friction you could feel, and soundblaster-optimized sound effects that just sounded and felt real. I wonder how it’d feel today.

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

@andrewjclare The golden thing? Cross it. Preferably by bike. Continue to Tiburon’s Main St and/or the Mill Valley Depot Cafe town square. Thank me later. Source: me, I’m from here.

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

I’ve flown the 777 more times than I can count, but the A350 only once, and it’s not even close: A350 hands down unless somehow the X really ups its game. While the A380 is the GOAT, A350 comes in at a close 2nd, with 744 of course a respectable third simply because she can’t compete with modern cabin pressures and humidity. Very eager to try the 748 finally.

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

@PeterBP @cevangelista413 Omg I can still hear the hilariously timed —
coincidence or not — squealing sound of the shaving cream can’s air seal competing with Nedry’s matching squeal of hysterical laughter.

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

@cevangelista413 Real buttons and switches with real labels in movies is like when movies show somebody using a completely unedited macOS or Windows computer; just adds an entirely new layer of tangible reality.

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

If this isn’t AI — and I don’t think it is — I’m utterly speechless. https://t.co/wWwEJrPxVL

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

@chrisboettcher9 @RudyColich Work itself has become peak escapism.

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

@RaminNasibov Netscape.exe was a great way to test your connection speed. As I recall, if I could get at or around 5-6 KB/sec (i.e., 40-50 Kbps) on my 56.6k modem, that was amazing.

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

It’s pretty great. My wife and I got bumped into @Delta’s extraordinary Delta One Suites with our then-2yo on a AMS-BOS (or perhaps the inverse; I can’t remember now) flight a few years ago.

The crazy thing is, It wasn’t a points upgrade or anything; it was just a, “we changed your seats [from economy], so now you’re in [some Delta One Suite seats].”

The crazy thing is we’d already used points to purchase a suite on our prior flight, too, so this was totally wild for us.

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

@Caesar_X @Waymo @paularambles Our Tesla had no problem.

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

@nikitabier This says less about slack (or you) and more about bad management.

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

@PatCarino More Americans need to visit Amsterdam and other European cities that prioritize bikes and pedestrians first despite being very car-friendly cultures.

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

@Krissa_Kray_ This says more about a country and its demographics than it does about public transit generally. Try public transit in Switzerland for example. Then we talk.

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

@kate_rouch This is the international check in lobby for Terminals A & G. Regional flights go out of Terminals 1, 2, and 3. We just did a domestic flight, and as usual, we were in and out of security in about 5-10 minutes thanks to the stellar operations of the privately outsourced TSA ops.

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

4yo popped the original VHS in just now and we saw the scene where that box of stuff — tracking device? — is loaded onto the Falcon while Han et al. hide in the sub-floor smuggling compartments.

I’ve wondered about this for the last 30 years at least:

(1) What was in the box they were loading onto the ship?

(2) Assuming it was the tracking device, why didn’t Han and the others just disable it?

(3) And why did they not know that they were begin tracked?

(4) If it wasn’t a tracking device, what was it?

(5) Where did the Imperial officers think the crew had disappeared to?

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

Weird. I totally noticed this as he tends not to do such things. On the other hand. It could also just be a bit of nerves saying such things. I sometimes do this too but because I’m lying but because I’m just not comfortable with what I’m saying. If anything, it’s a tell of honest, and not necessarily deceit.

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

@grok @elonmusk @X Then at least let people modify their filters so their timeline shows only verified accounts with real first/last names that mirror their ID info.

[Marc Hoag @MarcHoag]

X should mandate ID verification for everyone and the use of full (first/last) names, too. Agreed? Cc: @elonmusk @X @grok