Marc | Dev

Building the engine behind @HexioTrade ⬢ | Prediction Market Architect

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

I deleted 12 years of posts. Here's why:

Everything I tweeted before is irrelevant compared to what I'm building now: the intelligence layer for prediction markets — and an edge that, frankly, shouldn't be shareable. But it is. So we will.

The numbers:

Yesterday, 2.24M Polymarket fill transactions hit the chain. We saw 93.37% of them before they were mined — median lead: 1,839ms. Measured daily against every single mined transaction, not estimated.

1.8 seconds doesn't sound like much. In a market that jumps from $0.40 to $0.95 on breaking news, it's the difference between being early and being exit liquidity.

And it's not just speed. We know who the smart money is — verified PnL across over a billion indexed trades — and we see them move in real time. We don't guess who's positioned. We know.

How? Own infrastructure, own node, two years of unreasonable engineering. The rest stays in-house.

Why am I telling you this?

Because this edge exists either way. Today it belongs to funds running their own infrastructure while retail trades one block behind reality without knowing it.

We're building it into @HexioTrade — so you trade with the tools the pros never wanted you to have.

Building in public from now on. Raw numbers, real benchmarks, occasional failures.

Waitlist → https://t.co/TQPQ3ZRKgz

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

@Razzyox @JustRevilo @Grimm8088 @HexioTrade Yeah exactly. Loud is free, a real track record isn't. Our explorer shows who actually makes money 🫡

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

Most "top traders" you follow are loud. Not good.

We rebuilt the real P&L of 2 million Polymarket wallets. Every trade since 2022, straight from the chain.

45% of people with settled trades lose money. They're just quieter about it.

Soon you'll see exactly who's who: @HexioTrade

Ever followed someone who turned out to be exit liquidity? 👇

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

@PolymarketDevs The "in-house indexer" line is the one I'd watch. We've run an independent on-chain reconstruction of every resolution for a while now —>> 694,911/694,911 match. Will the new market-resolution endpoint expose settlement at tx level, or pre-aggregated?

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

I asked who'd build the evidence layer for resolutions. Rhetorically 😏

Then we finished it. 👇

Every Polymarket resolution, rebuilt from the chain and matched against the official outcome — 694,911 of 694,911. No exceptions.

The catch: the outcome is already provable. The decision behind it isn't — post-close rule changes, oracle votes with no paper trail. Confirming the number was never the hard part. Auditing the call is.

That's what goes on-chain next.

https://t.co/TQPQ3ZRKgz | @HexioTrade

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

Happy birthday! 🎂
... and respect for turning this into something bigger than yourself.

Your case is exactly why resolution needs an independent evidence layer. Detection of bad trades is half-solved. Verifiable settlement isn't. The MSTR market proved it.

Keep going. People are watching 🤝

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

@mannydhill44548 @Polymarket @MicroStrategy Another one? Same story? Haven't read this case the first time.

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

@cryptimizy If it can't be said publicly, it's a pitch 🤝 All good — not buying services right now

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

Polymarket: "transparency, integrity, those who attempt it will be identified" 💪

Also Polymarket: *locks replies on the integrity statement* 🔒😭

Look — the Van Dyke case proves trade surveillance works. Credit where due 👏

But resolution is still the wild west: $500K MSTR market, rules changed after close, decided by an @UMAprotocol vote with zero audit trail 🤠

Detection ≠ fair settlement.

The next evolution: an independent, on-chain evidence layer for resolutions ⛓️🔍 Who's building it? 😎

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

Polymarket has built the most comprehensive market integrity infrastructure in the prediction market industry, combining strict insider trading rules, AI-powered surveillance, and blockchain forensics into a unified system. �Polymarket has built the most comprehensive market integrity infrastructure in the prediction market industry, combining strict insider trading rules, AI-powered surveillance, and blockchain forensics into a unified system. �Polymarket has built the most comprehensive market integrity infrastructure in the prediction market industry, combining strict insider trading rules, AI-powered surveillance, and blockchain forensics into a unified system. �Polymarket has built the most comprehensive market integrity infrastructure in the prediction market industry, combining strict insider trading rules, AI-powered surveillance, and blockchain forensics into a unified system. 🧵

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

Came from the Solana trenches myself — this is big validation. The terminal wars are coming to prediction markets 👀

Execution is getting solved fast. Information isn't: we decode the Polygon mempool and see ~93% of Polymarket fills ~1.8s before they're mined.

Speed to click vs. speed to know. Both will matter 🤝

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

@claudeai The intelligence layer for prediction markets 🧠

Own Polygon node, mempool fully decoded — we see ~93% of Polymarket fills ~1.8s before they hit the chain, and resolution proposals before the price jumps.

Built with Claude btw 🤝

@HexioTrade

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

@Razzyox 🤝

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

I deleted 12 years of posts. Here's why:

Everything I tweeted before is irrelevant compared to what I'm building now: the intelligence layer for prediction markets — and an edge that, frankly, shouldn't be shareable. But it is. So we will.

The numbers:

Yesterday, 2.24M Polymarket fill transactions hit the chain. We saw 93.37% of them before they were mined — median lead: 1,839ms. Measured daily against every single mined transaction, not estimated.

1.8 seconds doesn't sound like much. In a market that jumps from $0.40 to $0.95 on breaking news, it's the difference between being early and being exit liquidity.

And it's not just speed. We know who the smart money is — verified PnL across over a billion indexed trades — and we see them move in real time. We don't guess who's positioned. We know.

How? Own infrastructure, own node, two years of unreasonable engineering. The rest stays in-house.

Why am I telling you this?

Because this edge exists either way. Today it belongs to funds running their own infrastructure while retail trades one block behind reality without knowing it.

We're building it into @HexioTrade — so you trade with the tools the pros never wanted you to have.

Building in public from now on. Raw numbers, real benchmarks, occasional failures.

Waitlist → https://t.co/TQPQ3ZRKgz

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

@Razzyox Welcome aboard! 🤝
Early crew gets the good stuff first — raw benchmarks and features drop in our Discord before they hit the timeline here. See you inside 🫶

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

@cryptimizy Sure, what's it about? 👀

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

@Razzyox Appreciate it 🙏 Best decision I've made. The next months are going to be fun — raw numbers incoming 🌝

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

@mariojrerzx Just opened my DMs 📬 Or drop it here

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

This 🔥 But one layer is still missing from "everything onchain": resolution evidence.

> every trade ✅
> every profit ✅
> the decision of WHO actually wins ❌

UMA disputes + post-hoc rule edits (the $500K MSTR case) show settlement isn't verifiable yet. An independent evidence layer would make @Polymarket auditable end-to-end ⛓️🔍

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

@Polymarket Before you size up here: read how the last MSTR market resolved (May 31, "sells BTC"). The 8-K confirmed sales within the window, UMA resolved NO on a clarification that wasn't in the rules. Know exactly what "announces" means in this one before you trade it

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

@PolymarketDevs Nice to see the taker-delay fix land. We measure Polymarket execution from the chain side — independent latency benchmarks, daily. Curious to see this one show up in our data 👀

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

@willo2_Poly Followed your case closely — we saw the dispute go through UMA in real time. Building the evidence layer so the next guy has receipts by default

[Marc | Dev @Marc_aber]

Respect for the transparency — this level of technical detail is rare from any exchange, and the priorities look right (feature flags, async flow, queue-preserving order types address most of what traders actually feel).

For what it's worth: we run independent chain-level infrastructure measuring every Polymarket settlement, including mempool-level timing before anything is mined. Your matching engine lives off-chain — our measurement starts where it hands off to the chain. We'll be watching these improvements land in the data.

Rooting for this. We build on this ecosystem — a stable Polymarket lifts everyone! 🫵🏼😎