Marcus

Only trade ES, SPY and SPX

[Marcus @Marcus28587491]

@datruthbomb Do you mean 6750 or 7650?

[Marcus @Marcus28587491]

@ChandlerTrading Interesting. Specially since we have a naked POC at ES 7284.

[Marcus @Marcus28587491]

@avanzabank @AngryLookBanana Så man ska läsa på aftonbladet att ni har problem. Men här vägrar ni lyssna på användare som onekligen inte är ensamma att ha problem?

[Marcus @Marcus28587491]

@colin_gladman And why do you focus on the loosers?
Not saying that you don't know how to trade. But it's getting a bit boring that you just yell at them.

[Alma.Trk @alma271828]

Let me explain the reality of a short-term rebound, as well as why I believe the upside bands I have marked are highly unlikely to be broken...

The volume of systematic selling is decreasing, and the market is underpricing the chances of a relief rally.
As I wrote on Sunday, Trump will do everything to shift the narrative and sentiment in a positive direction; moreover, the spring tax refund season is approaching in the US, and equity selling by pension funds will also quiet down by April.

This narrative management is also evident in 0DTE positioning. I constantly see ratio put spread selling, which creates short speed exposure in the dealer profile; this essentially absorbs downside realized volatility and thus curbs momentum. Thus, if the put hedges cannot outperform theta decay, traders will close them out, which generates further buying pressure. Alongside this, I see continuous downside zomma and vomma supply in the weekly positioning, which functions as a synthetic circuit breaker and prevents downside hedges from properly capitalizing on downside momentum.
This will result in a relief.

At the same time, stagflation risk has deepened, and these effects have only just begun.
The market is trying to reprice the hard-landing narrative and is preparing for a higher interest rate environment in the future.
Also, systematic funds will remain net sellers because the volatility environment will stay high for a while longer; since they use trailing calculations, the current higher-volatility days will remain in the calculation for a few more weeks, which keeps risk metrics high and induces a net cautious positioning.
This will keep the markets under pressure.

We can see that the structural $SPX levels I previously marked and are continuously defended by the market are acting as strong support, particularly the August levels right now.
This means the market still believes the administration can manage the risks. However, as I've been saying, I expect another wave of geopolitical risk by May, specifically spiced up with domestic political issues and a slowdown around the AI sector (see my free post on $NVDA and $TSMC). Furthermore, let's add the hidden left-tail and kurtosis risk of the yen carry trade, which I have also written extensively about since last December.
And I cannot stress enough that this Iranian conflict is not over either, while China is slowly building the first island chain blockade, and due to the information war, the market cannot properly assess the risk.
These factors will produce enough extra sentiment pressure for the top to start forming.
So, I expect a short-term relief into the first half of April and another leg down, then a quick rebound and top into summer. This is how it looks to me right now. It is also important to emphasize that meanwhile, Trump is continuously losing his credibility and support, which jeopardizes the entire Trumponomics system and the April rebound.

Where is the money flowing?
Nobody wants to invest in the hundredth AI chatbot. The money is going into what physically keeps this alive: electrical grids, server farms, cooling systems, and the stable power generation required for them (a mix of natural gas, nuclear, and green energy). A massive competition is underway for the ownership of copper, lithium, and rare-earth metal mines in the developing world.
Meanwhile, investors are increasingly exiting the tech bubble, earning interest on their cash in short-term government bonds, buying defensive stocks (oil, healthcare), and waiting out the storm so they can buy up physical assets cheaply afterward.

[Marcus @Marcus28587491]

@colin_gladman A pathological liar does

[Marcus @Marcus28587491]

@colin_gladman The main thing I don't like with Cheddar flow is that he post images like this and say that the flow is either very bullish or bearish.
But he doesn't say if the orders are like a year out or days away. There is big difference

[Marcus @Marcus28587491]

@rbswingtrader Wave 5 has to be shorter than 3, so it may only push up to 7k and that is all she wrote

[Marcus @Marcus28587491]

@harryjsisson Honestly, I cannot see any other leader from a country saying the words Trump say.
Every leader would say that they truly feel sorry for the lady who lost her life and they would start in investigation right away.
I'm shocked that Trump can keep saying these kind of statements

[Marcus @Marcus28587491]

@KevinXInvest If you make the top as wave 1 and then 5 moved down for wave 2 summering is wrong. Wave 2 cannot finish in 5 waves. It can be A though

[Marcus @Marcus28587491]

@rbswingtrader Since you are tracing a diagonal for wave C, the five legs should be 3-3-3-3-3. So it would make sense to make one more low so wave 5 has 3 inner legs

[Marcus @Marcus28587491]

@SecScottBessent There is only one reason for this and they don't give a f*ck about the newborns.
They want to prop up the market by buying it with printed money so they can show that - look what the market is going up thanks to us

[Marcus @Marcus28587491]

@TimeBaseTraders @DefiWimar Exactly. You can easily spot a retail reader when they think the minutes move the market. LOL

[Marcus @Marcus28587491]

@KevinXInvest I think it’s A cause Thursday and Fridays action looks like 5 waves down, so that could be one leg in the Y

[Marcus @Marcus28587491]

@datruthbomb So we hit it outside of RTH.
Does that count?

[Marcus @Marcus28587491]

@Jimmy56541 Yeah, this is one idea I have. I haven’t measured the target and just added 3,4,5 so you understand where they will be

[Marcus @Marcus28587491]

@ElliottForecast In a diagonal that you are presenting where wave 4 goes into wave 1, I believe each inner leg should be 3 waves

[Marcus @Marcus28587491]

@rbswingtrader We may be in an ending diagonal like this too.
So wave 4 can still be on the table after 5th wave around spx 6600

[Marcus @Marcus28587491]

@rbswingtrader Agree. Maybe a fast spike down to retest previous ATH (before we dropped a lot) at SPX 6147