Marcus Padley

Stockbroker for 40+ years. Founder of @Marcus_Today. Telling it like it is since 1998.

[Marcus Padley @MarcusPadley]

@Starlink It's for Futurists, not Realists. But this is not an earnings game on Day One. It's a sentiment game - do you want to play that game is the question.

[Marcus Padley @MarcusPadley]

@SpaceX is priced at 94x sales. That's more than twice Nvidia's P/S multiple at its 2023 AI peak – already an extreme benchmark.

The AI division spent $7.72bn in capex in Q1 2026 alone and posted a $2.47bn operating loss. The prospectus admits it may never be profitable.

[Marcus Padley @MarcusPadley]

@Starlink on its own would be an attractive business at the right price. The question is how much of the rest of it you're comfortable paying for.

[Marcus Padley @MarcusPadley]

We've got a tale of two markets right now - technology and the rest.

With everything bubbling in the background, tech is where everybody's going. It's got the most growth, it's the most obvious theme, and the rest of the market just pales into boredom by comparison.

[Marcus Padley @MarcusPadley]

$AMZN is the only hyperscaler predicted to achieve a positive ROI on AI.

And that's under the most generous assumptions possible – assuming zero costs. No operating costs, infrastructure costs, staff costs, electricity costs, depreciation, financing costs, or competitive pressure.

Still the only one in positive territory.

[Marcus Padley @MarcusPadley]

$MU +19.3% overnight. UBS tripled its price target. Briefly crossed $1T in market cap.

Up more than eightfold in the past 12 months. Entire 2026 HBM supply already sold out. Forward PE of 15.5x.

Fell 30% in two weeks in the heat of the Iran conflict. Since then, up 180%.

Did a Stock Take on it today: https://t.co/iTG4VmzdzF

@Marcus_Today

[Marcus Today @Marcus_Today]

Most investors don't have a buying problem.
They have a selling problem.
40 years. Same mistake every time.

https://t.co/f52TIX7jHE

[Marcus Today @Marcus_Today]

Can Australian brands crack the US market – or is it just taking coals to Newcastle?

@henryj007 with his take on @ausbiztv.

https://t.co/APRIvlveuu

[Marcus Padley @MarcusPadley]

@charliebilello And the guidance doesn't include sales to China. That would light it up again.

[Marcus Padley @MarcusPadley]

@ryu_tay Still the best theme out there at the right price.

[Marcus Padley @MarcusPadley]

$NVDA – fabulous results as expected but competition growing. Lot of hype for a lukewarm reaction.

Q2 revenue guidance of $91bn beat the average estimate of $87bn but fell short of the most bullish case at $96bn. Revenue on track to exceed $190bn in calendar 2026 – the best year of any corporation in history.

The stock whipsawed after hours before ending down near yesterday's close.

[Marcus Padley @MarcusPadley]

The bond market sets the longer-term trend – it can kill the equity market for extended periods, as it did in 2018 and 2022. It's like a leak in a boat, wearing on sentiment relentlessly rather than suddenly.

The 30Y is at 5.18%. Highest since 2007. BNP Paribas says once it broke 5% there is "no anchor". Markets are now pricing a 42% probability of a Fed rate hike in December. A week ago it was 4.7%.

The consensus says inflation is transitory. Energy-driven rather than broad-based.

Fool me once.

[Marcus Today @Marcus_Today]

Complexity isn't cleverness. Don't be impressed by things that are just hard to read.

[Marcus Padley @MarcusPadley]

NextEra is acquiring Dominion Energy for $67bn. Utilities consolidating to fund the AI power build-out.

Data centres currently account for 4% of US electricity consumption. Expected to rise to 9–17% by 2030.

Dominion alone has 51GW of contracted data-centre capacity. Customers include $GOOG, $AMZN, $META, $MSFT. Virginia is the hub. "Data Centre Alley".

[Marcus Padley @MarcusPadley]

The Budget Blues saw $CBA.AX drop 10.4% yesterday. Bad budget for negative gearing, the property market, and banks. The sector has broken a very strong trend that's been in place for two years.

If the market plateaus or trends down, I don't mind buying the banks on 6% plus yields. $MVB.AX is the obvious play – we don't hold it yet. At the right price. Bit early.

[Marcus Padley @MarcusPadley]

Hyperscaler capex now projected at over $800bn this year. Up from $200bn at the start of the year.

$GOOG, $AMZN and $NVDA alone accounted for a third of the S&P 500's gains from its March low.

Mag7 earnings tracking at +57% for Q1 – roughly three times higher than estimates from a month ago.

Nvidia hasn't even reported yet.

[Marcus Today @Marcus_Today]

Six ASX stocks that have taken a beating over the last 12 months – are any of them worth buying?

@henryj007 joins Ally Selby on @EquityMates to sort the rebounds from the traps.

https://t.co/KNVh48P4yY

[Marcus Padley @MarcusPadley]

@ryu_tay Partially. Selling half our Big Tech.

[Marcus Padley @MarcusPadley]

Michael Burry warned overnight that the tech rally is about to "end with a thud". The market has jumped the shark – looks like the last few months before the dot com bubble.

No doubt a very smart man. He is also publicly pumping up his own position. Fund manager 101.

Short $NVDA, $ORCL, $TSLA and the SOX Index. Very bold.

The first SEC filing on Palantir marked the top. After a dip it is now consolidating.

[Marcus Padley @MarcusPadley]

Never take a profit. Never take a loss. Listen to anyone who quotes Warren Buffett. Good ways to lose $5,000.

https://t.co/8coPwXaeX9