Marie Quantier

[jeroen blokland @jsblokland]

Incredible chart on #financials! More than 10 years after the Great Financial Crisis, European financials are still down 50% from their pre-crisis levels (#Greece and #Portugal down to zero), while financials in the US took more than 7 years to top their pre-crisis levels.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

It feels like global macro risks are building for late summer/autumn (hard Brexit, US/China trade spat, US/EU trade issues to come before yr-end and global manufacturing effectively in recession) but all of us are reluctant to fight the CenBanks. Is this a trap, DB’s Reid asks.

[Jean-Joseph Boillot @jjboillot]

State media means top chinese leaders including #XiJinping who supported army attack against #Tiananmen students in 1989. Today the World has changed. Big capitalism is scared by China and the communist dynasty has little popular support.

[Jean-Joseph Boillot @jjboillot]

@AntoineBondaz Mais Xi Jinping sait quil ne peut intervenir a #Hongkong sans changer la face du monde et quitter l'orbite du Tianxia (toit du monde) qui est à la base du projet hégémonique de Pekin. Adieu les routes de la soie #OBOR la banque #AIIB ou même éclatement des #BRICS

[Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 @C_Barraud]

🇯🇵 #Japan’s #GPIF has started currency hedging its overseas bond investments denominated in U.S. dollars and euros, Nikkei reported Sunday.
https://t.co/8R8LrG53dG

[Gaurav Saroliya @GauravSaroliya]

@mtmalinen @darioperkins @MarketBlondes Industrial slowdown -> profits growing slower than loans -> corporate debt looking hugely mispriced. And then a mad rush for the exit from a mkt where liquidity (dealer inventories) is low. Stocks get caught by the common drivers.

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

The Fed's job just got more complicated. The U.S. consumer is very strong. Growth is beating expectations. Business spending, though, is declining. https://t.co/BoHqKSREJN Yields are rising, but the U.S. yield curve is flattening.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

On a real, "GAAP" basis, there has been no profit growth in 5 years - all multiple expansion and made-up accounting.

[Simon Mikhailovich @S_Mikhailovich]

Now we learn that the S&P op. profits have not risen since 2014 whereas the S&P is +50%. When prices of goods rise w/out increase in utility, we call it inflation but when stock prices rise w/out increase in earnings, we call it multiple expansion. https://t.co/666mEzmpJ2

[John P. Hussman, Ph.D. @hussmanjp]

Ooof. Our estimate of 12-year prospective returns for a conventional portfolio mix (60% S&P 500, 30% Treasury bonds, 10% Tbills) is now down to 0.46%. The single week in history with a lower estimated prospective return was August 26, 1929 at the market peak. Just FYI.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Looks as no unanimity achieved on the next big monetary stimulus package. #ECB’s Draghi: Convergence of views, rather than unanimity among ECB policy makers. Says different nuances of views on parts of package, but committees received broad mandate.

[Frederik Ducrozet @fwred]

If you're not used to listening to the ECB, you might find this comment trivial or obvious. It's not. This is a hugely important and unprecedented step in the ECB's history. Whatever it takes 2.0, to reach their mandate.

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

Companies are beating second-quarter estimates, but they aren’t raising forward guidance, effectively lowering the outlook for the second half. https://t.co/Sg0FIvB1yH

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

The crazy bond rally continues w/ German 10y yields at -0.38% and Italy's 10y yields down 9bps at 1.51% as mkts price probability of an ECB rate cut tomorrow at 43%.

[Corentin Sellin @CorentinSellin]

Vis-à-vis des alliés de l'#OTAN qui ne paient pas leur "dû" #Trump a toujours brandi les menaces les plus fortes. Mais cette nuit, au grand désarroi des sénateurs républicains, il refuse de sanctionner la #Turquie, allié OTAN, qui a acheté des S-400 à la #Russie. Etonnant, non?

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

#Eurozone PMI declined from 52.2 to 51.5 in Jul as manufacturing contraction deepens especially in #Germany. Weak report comes one day before #ECB’s policy decision and delivering fresh ammunition for ECB doves.
https://t.co/BIii529Vdj

[Tiho Brkan @TihoBrkan]

Buying Treasuries in October of 2018 — as stocks were peaking — was a smart money move.

Buying Treasuries today or adding to your positions with a view that the bond market rally just started... might not be so smart from a contrarian perspective.

@biancoresearch chart.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Ouch! German factory slump deepens on trade, Raising recession risk: German manufacturing PMI goes from bad to worse, dropping to just 43.1, an 84mth low. https://t.co/sAZCfl5LIs

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Ouch! The #IMF expects #deglobalization this year. IMF has cut projects for world trade growth by nearly a full percentage point to 2.5%. That's below global GDP growth projection of 3.2%.