Ellie

Independent. Introvert.
Animal lover. Nature lover. Book Lover.
Badger and Packer fan.
In ❤️ with Viet Nam Vet
I’m tired boss

[Ellie @MarieResists52]

On this Memorial Day, remembering and honoring my Uncle Cornelius “Casey” who gave the ultimate sacrifice for this country on August 15, 1944 in the invasion of southern France near Ramatuelle after stepping on a land mine. He was 20 years old.

My grandparents were notified Sept. 22, 1944 by telegram that he was missing in action. On October 18, 1944 a telegram confirmed he was killed in action. On December 10, 1944 they received a letter stating he had advanced on the beach about 25 yards when he stepped on a delayed-action mine on August 15, 1944 and died that same day. They were informed of his burial in Draguignan, France. His belongings including a pocket prayer book with fragment holes, billfold, and pocket New Testament were returned around August 1945. There was mud smear from a foxhole below Hebrew 13:24 “Salute all them that have the rule over you, and all the saints. They of Italy salute you.”

Despite my grandparents attempts to obtain further details of his death little information was available. A letter they received April 15, 1948 reiterated the information they received by telegram in 1944.

His remains were returned to the US November 10, 1948 for a memorial service and burial in Randolph Cemetery.

[Jes @galexy70]

He may not get removed from office but I hope the Dems spend 27 - 29 impeaching @realDonaldTrump repeatedly for EVERYTHING illegal he has done.

What kind of POS CinC does not know HE had TWO soldiers missing?

@PeteHegseth needs to be removed YESTERDAY for that alone.

[Ellie @MarieResists52]

@real_seanadams https://t.co/dVqRL0YlEg

[Why So Salty @PanicProneSalty]

Karmelo Anthony Verdict: Unbiased Breakdown & America’s Racial Divide on Defining “Standards of Conduct”

https://t.co/k2lAF58DVZ

Tomorrow at 1 PM Eastern — join us for a respectful, no-holds-barred X Space on the Karmelo Anthony verdict and where White and Black America stand on defining “Standards of Conduct” — specifically, whether there are different standards of conduct for White and Black Americans.

We’ll lay out the facts of the case fairly and openly, then talk through the real divides without spin or shouting.
Hosted by @PanicProneSalty, @manuraven74 & @chrisG7676

Special Guest Speakers
@KickboxerEsq
@NorseLordLoki

Every voice is welcome and will be treated with respect and dignity. Bring your questions, your perspective, and your willingness to listen.

[Ellie @MarieResists52]

@real_seanadams Exactly. It’s incredibly sad situation - two young men are lost. Two families have lost loved on. Just a tragedy

[Ellie @MarieResists52]

@Iamjoekher @manuraven74 I agree. The voter rolls should be cleaned up. Not doing so just fuel questions about election integrity.

[Ellie @MarieResists52]

Doris (clearly alive and elderly) answered the door, was confused, and stated she was born in 1940 (making her ~86 in 2026).

An ~86-year-old (born 1940) could easily have a long voting record

-Eligible since the 1960s.
-California has frequent elections (primaries, generals, specials, locals).
-51 votes over ~60 years is plausible for a consistent voter, especially with mail-in ballots. The record likely reflects ballots cast or returned under her registration, not necessarily fraud.

This is a known database artifact, not evidence of a ghost voter or fraud. Many older voter registration systems used placeholder birthdates (commonly 1/1/1900) when the actual date was missing, illegible, or never recorded on paper forms.This practice has been documented for years in California and other states.

Doris denying it could mean she doesn’t remember every instance, the record includes proxy/early/mail ballots she doesn’t associate with “voting,” or there’s a data mismatch. It doesn’t prove someone else stole her identity to vote.

[Ellie @MarieResists52]

@manuraven74 https://t.co/KQYnvy0aPz

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

Iran is exporting only 250,000 barrels of oil per day, down from an average of about 1.5M/day in January and February, and yet?

They're making FAR MORE money now than they were prior to the war! And even worse? They'll be able to do this for another FIVE MONTHS!

How is this possible?

Take your seats, buckle up, and make sure to get the large popcorn... you're gonna need it for this wild ride.

In January, the first full month before the War in Iran, Iranian oil was trading at its notorious "extreme discount" to Brent, and being sold to China almost in its entirety (~90%). Now, at the time, it actually WAS a pretty notable discount. In January, the average price of Brent Crude was ~$63/barrel, and Iranian oil was trading at a $10/barrel discount to Brent. This means that it would be trading at $53/barrel, or an effective discount of ~16%. For the month of January, Iran sold ~1.5M barrels per day (Citation 1) @ $53/barrel for a total revenue stream of ~$79,500,000/day.

Okay. So that's our baseline figure. ~$79.5M/day in revenue.

... soooo how does one reach the conclusion they're making MORE money now in May WITH the blockade in effect?

This is due to several factors that are worth noting.

1) The price of Brent Crude, and thus Iranian oil, in May averaged $107.14/barrel (Citation 2).
2) Iranian oil's discount to Brent lessened from $10/barrel to $0-$1/barrel (Citation 3)
3) Iran holds significant oil storage AT SEA outside of the US blockade line (Citation 4)

Let's start by calculating out the first figure... the ~250,000 barrels per day that are still being TRULY exported. This is coming from trucking routes into Pakistan, and rail lines into China. Now, given that Iranian oil is selling now at only a $1/barrel discount to Brent, and the average Brent Price was $107.14/barrel (Citation 1):

250,000 x $106.14 = $26.535M/Day

Okay, lovely... but not close to $79.5M/day...

Now we get to the part that everyone seems to be missing.

Iran, prior to the US blockade being imposed on April 13th, had ~127M (Citation 4) barrels of oil on vessels and on storage at sea OUTSIDE of the US blockade line.

This has been consistently sold, primarily to China, and this figure now sits at ~71M barrels (we'll get to this).

According to data from Kpler, Iran sold from this "at sea" oil stockpile to China at a rate of 1.1M barrels per day throughout the month of May (Citation 3).

As a result, we can calculate Iran's oil sales to China in May as follows:

1,100,000 x $106.14 = $116.754M/Day

When we combine this figure from the sale of Iranian oil "at sea" with the figure from the sale of land-based exports, we reach the following:

$116.754M + $26.535M = $143.289M/Day.

Yup. I'm hope your seat belt is nice and tight, and your popcorn is not gone.

Iran is earning 80.24% MORE per day in May than they were in January.

Okay... so CLEARLY Iran is making way more now... but how long can they keep that up for? They're barely exporting via land, and their at sea storage will run out eventually!

This is correct, but let me show you why... this isn't exactly the flex you think it is...

According to the official Kpler data, which was published on June 1st, 2026, Iran actually had 80M barrels still outside the US blockade line. At a rate of 1.1M bpd in drawdown, I reached my conclusion of 71M remaining given that today is 8 days after 6/1.

At a drawdown rate of 1.1M/day, from a total of 71M barrels remaining to be sold, that equates to a time horizon of 64.5 days. This number falls EXACTLY in line with the following from the Kpler publication:
"If the blockade is maintained for another two months, Iran won’t have any more oil to sell to China."

Okay, so... ~2.25 months until Iran is unable to sell any of their oil to China and rake in ~$143.289M/day in revenues.

That's... not EXACTLY the 5 months I was claiming earlier, was it?

Enter: Citation 5.

What needs to be understood as it relates to Iranian oil sales... It's an illicit purchase. Iranian oil is sanctioned by multiple jurisdictions, but most importantly, it is sanctioned by the United States. As a result of this, any payments from the purchase of Iranian oil need to be laundered, and then routed through sanctions-evasion networks via front companies, shell companies, offshore banking networks, and then EVENTUALLY end up in a payable format to Iran. This process generally takes 1-3 months FROM DELIVERY.

Why is it "from delivery" and not "from shipment"? Because Iranian oil is shipping on shadow fleet tankers meant to evade sanctions. These are ~30 year old tankers, and they are unable to access Western insurance, and are subject to potential seizure, disrepair, and leaks. According to reporting from Bloomberg, citing Kpler:
"Then buyers have a further two months to settle payments, according to Kpler."

Given that 90% of Iranian oil has been sold to China for many years, this means that Iranian oil sales perpetually run on a 2-month payment delay cycle. Right now, Iran is being paid out from oil sold in April. As a result, Iran won't be paid out on their last oil sales from the 2.25 month runway for +2 months.

2.25 + 2 = 4.25 months (I can't believe I'm spelling that out)

Okay... so we're getting somewhere now! ... unfortunately...

But that's STILL not "5+ months".

Now, we need to remember our basic budgeting and accounting rules. When Iran is planning their spending and budgeting, they did so without the foresight to know that oil prices would skyrocket, and that Iranian oil would shift +$9/barrel from a -$10/barrel discount to Brent, to a -$1/barrel discount to Brent.

Iran is planning for relatively consistent revenue streams BASED on the reasonable movement of energy markets throughout this course of the year. Between August 2025, and January 2026, the average price of Brent Crude was $65.56/barrel (Citation 2). Again, in May 2026, this price was $107.14/barrel. In addition, between the months of August 2025 and January 2026, Iranian oil was still trading at its ~$10/barrel discount to Brent. This means that Iran was PLANNING on revenues based on a price point far closed to ~$55.56/barrel... NOT $106.14/barrel.

As a result, when we look at the budgeted and planning for revenue flows on the sale of the remaining oil sales from Iran via land-based routes, and through the remaining sales of the ~71M barrels at sea East of the US blockade line, we would be measuring for ~+91.04% in timeline.

Based on this, TECHNICALLY, Iran would be RECEIVING revenues equivalent to:

4.25 Months x 1.9104 = 8.1192 Months.

Now... with that said, I operate in an objective and conservative manner. In all reality, the US will continue to interdict and seize Iranian and Iranian-linked vessels when they can. There will be some operational issues that throw a wrench into the ability for Iran to earn every ounce of profits, and there are increased costs associated with pulling from at-sea storage compared to normal export and sale. As a result of this, I will be applying a 30% reduction to the overall revenue boost.

+91.04% - 30.00% = +61.04%.

4.25 Months x 1.6104 = 6.8442 Months.

As a result of several factors, I estimate that Iran will be able to earn revenues equivalent to almost SEVEN MONTHS of oil sales before they begin to ACTUALLY feel the full bite of the US blockade of Iran.

This is due to their land-based sales of oil at a rate of 250,000 barrels per day, their at-sea storage sales to China at a rate of 1,100,000 barrels per day, the increase oil sales price from an average from $55.56/barrel on average between August 2025 and January 2026 to $106.14/barrel in May, and a diminishing of their discount per barrel price from -$10/barrel from August 2025 to January 2026 to -$1/barrel in May 2026.

In summation, and congratulations to all of you who actually read this far, Iran will have enough oil revenues to last another SEVEN MONTHS before the US blockade actually begins to bite... call it... JANUARY 2027!

[Nathan Bailey @manuraven74]

https://t.co/PfvyGfFlk1

[Ellie @MarieResists52]

@OliviaFLNative @NHAunleashed Good point.

[Ellie @MarieResists52]

@NHAunleashed This has been and continues to be is the subject of long-standing theological debates, especially around justification (how people are made right with God) and the relationship between faith and works.

I understand and respect your belief. Not looking for an argument.

[Nathan Bailey @manuraven74]

Tuesday on The Conservative Hour!
https://t.co/dix4xPzBzl
Do the United States and Israel have the same agenda when it comes to Iran? The answer is painfully obvious to anyone not living in fantasy land.

Why did the US step in a year ago and kneecap Israel right when they had the golden opportunity to finish off the IRGC? Great question.

Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are front and center in this conflict because of the nations they lead — yet any criticism of their decisions turns certain folks into rabid name-calling defenders who lose their minds on sight.

Join @PanicProneSalty, @chrisG7676, @@manuraven74 our incredible speakers, and the most loyal listeners in X land for a no-holds-barred discussion. Come ready to debate with facts, not feelings.

We challenge everyone: Are you brave enough to step up?

Drop in, bring your best arguments, and let’s get after it. See you in the Space! 🔥

[Markle Ω @MarkleResists]

OH, THIS IS AMAZING 😆 #TeamTalarico

[sheep @thefarmersheep]

this new born baby goat reactions is so cute

[Ellie @MarieResists52]

The simplest and most effective way to manipulate people is through “othering”—turning a person, group, or idea into a terrifying boogeyman. Once you’ve successfully painted the “enemy” as an existential threat, even otherwise reasonable people will line up to fight it for you. They’ll cheer, donate, vote, and attack on command, convinced they’re defending everything they hold dear.

Conveniently, this crusade almost always ends up enriching or empowering the very people sounding the alarm. The threats may be real or exaggerated, but the solution is almost never what the frightened crowd is told it is. It’s classic misdirection.This is precisely why snake oil salesman have thrived for centuries.

The modern political parties have refined “othering” into an art form. We see this on both sides: “woke mobs,” “all Muslims are terrorists, “basket of deplorables” “radical left Marxists, broad accusations of “systemic racism” or “white supremacy” applied not just to extremists but to mainstream conservatives, calling migrants “animals, vermin, etc. etc

Whichever villain is useful this week, the pattern is the same: whip up fear and outrage, direct the mob’s energy, and profit from the chaos.

Only those who are incapable or whom refuse to think critically fall for it. The moment you start asking who benefits from the fear and panic, the game becomes obvious. Tribal fear is cheap. Independent thought is hard. That’s why those who benefit from the “othering” always bet on the former—and usually win.

[Ellie @MarieResists52]

In online rooms and crowded spaces,
The quick-to-anger show their faces.
They interrupt, they yell and shout,
They mock and call names right out.
They blast their rage like crashing waves,
But nothing shifts, no mind is swayed.
Hearts stay closed to angry noise
No gentle words, no patient voice.
Shouting loud may feel like power,
But it builds walls hour by hour.
Real change comes soft and slow,
Through listening, not the loudest blow.
The storm may roar and shake the ground,
Yet leaves no hearts or minds turned round.

[Nathan Bailey @manuraven74]

Mindful Monday morning to absolutely everyone in X land and beyond!

This week we're going full Throwback Chronicles mode to prove the hijinks surrounding my life didn't just start yesterday — they've been a feature, not a bug, since the Stone Age. Buckle up.

Our story kicks off on a chilly winter morning around 1990 (or close enough; don't @ me with the exact date, I wasn't keeping a diary). My cousin Sean and I, both living on the far side of Baltimore County, had that soul-crushing 40-plus-minute commute to our private Christian school every day. Mom or his mom would drive, and we'd usually hit up the High's (yeah, the fancy 7-Eleven predecessor) for vital supplies: snacks for us growing boys and coffee for the moms so they didn't commit homicide before drop-off.

This particular morning was no different — except for the lovely sheet of ice coating the sidewalks courtesy of the previous night's winter precipitation. We roll in, say our polite hellos to the manager — a man tipping the scales at about 6 feet and 400-plus pounds (remember this detail, it's important) — grab our goods, and proceed with the sacred pre-school rituals. I think we were either dominating Double Dragon on the arcade machine or deep in a Sports Illustrated article. Who can remember? We were kids.

Then it happened. Some poor woman starts walking toward the store and — boom — classic slip on the ice right out front. Before any of you pearl-clutchers start typing your sermons, let me explain: Sean and I have been equal-opportunity laughers at slips, falls, and general clumsiness our entire lives. Family, friends, strangers, ourselves — doesn't matter. We're still like this in our 50s. Judge if you must, but I speak nothing but the gospel truth.

So, not being complete monsters, we sprint outside to check on her. I ask if she's alright. She wails back, "Noooo!" Perfect. Mission accomplished on the concern front.

We immediately run back inside, collapse on the floor in our nice dress shirts, ties, and pants like two heathens, absolutely dying laughing. Meanwhile, the 400-pound store manager suddenly transforms into Carl Lewis at the '84 Olympics. The earth was shaking. I swear the seismic sensors in California picked it up. Dude moved with a quickness that defied physics, got outside, and helped the woman up. Nothing broken, just had the wind knocked out of her. Crisis averted thanks to our heroic speedy giant.

Back inside, Sean and I are still cackling like idiots. My mom hits us with the classic: "You two ought to be ashamed of yourselves, laughing like that." Which, naturally, only made us laugh harder. Guilty as charged, Your Honor. Lock us up.

Thank you for reading this edition of Nathan's Neighborhood Chronicles. The craziness didn't just start — it's been baked in since day one. Back tomorrow for more tales from the archives. Be well, stay upright on icy sidewalks, and try not to judge too hard... or do, it fuels me. 😂

[Ellie @MarieResists52]

@realmackmiller @theliamnissan I’m up and ready to roll #smokefleet 👇🏽

https://t.co/IQJrthATmw

[Ellie @MarieResists52]

@AngelaBelcamino You’re ridiculous