MariusCaesar

Investor

[John Spencer @SpencerGuard]

At this point if you still claim Israel is committing genocide in Gaza you are either stupid and ignorant or antisemitic.

The antisemitic version usually means applying a double standard on the definition of genocide and the laws of war just to delegitimize Israel’s existence or right to pursue legitimate goals in a war it did not start or/and dehumanize every IDF soldier as a monster.

I have tried to argue basic definitions. Genocide requires intent to destroy a national, ethnical, racial or religious group as such, in whole or in part. The evidence does not show that intent toward the people in Gaza. What it shows is the opposite. Israel has taken extraordinary steps, often at real cost and risk, to prevent civilian harm while fighting an enemy that hides among them, uses hospitals and schools as bases, and treats its own people as props in an evil grand political strategy of martyrdom to eliminate all jews on the planet.

In the middle of the fighting Israel has let in huge amounts of food, hundreds of thousands of tons, sometimes more than the world food specialists said was needed. Water lines from Israel have stayed open, three of them supplying tens of thousands of cubic meters a day. They have coordinated repairs, kept desalination plants running by sending fuel and even electricity to key ones, and allowed generators so water systems, hospitals and bakeries can keep working. Medical supplies and equipment have poured in by the tens of thousands of tons. Field hospitals coordinated. Patients have been evacuated for treatment outside. When polio showed up for the first time in decades Israel halted fighting every day and worked with WHO and UNICEF on a mass vaccination campaigns. Over a million doses given. That is not how you try to wipe out a people.

Then look at the misinformation machine. Almost every big claim about Israel deliberately targeting journalists or medical staff or children falls apart, and a lot of the time it falls apart because of what Hamas itself admits, sometimes before anyone even finishes basic fact checking. The “journalists” killed for example. Plenty of the names on those lists later show up in Hamas or Islamic Jihad martyr posts as actual operatives or commanders. Dual roles are common in Gaza’s information space. Same with medical workers. People mourned as nurses or doctors get claimed later by the terror groups as fighters. Hospitals have been used as command centers and weapons storage over and over. Hamas officials have even said it out loud at times. Manuals found on how to use the hospitals as Hamas military sites.

The casualty numbers and the “they are targeting children” stories. The Hamas health ministry figures get treated like gospel, yet their own underlying data and later admissions undercut every trending statistic. Combatants get left out or reclassified. Claims of IDF snipers or drones hunting kids usually fail basic reality of sci-fi sniper drones that don’t exist or injury patterns coming out of the same hospitals.

These stories do not need years of investigation to collapse. Often Hamas’s own words or the available evidence do the job within days or weeks. But the first maximalist version is what spreads and sticks and then gets used to accuse the whole country of Israel and its army of genocidal intent.

It is not illegal or wrong to target and destroy your enemy in a war, especially one that started with a massacre, held hostages, and fights from inside the civilian population it claims to protect. Gaza is an awful war with awful conditions, conditions shaped heavily by Hamas’s tactics. That does not make it genocide. The aid that kept flowing, the vaccination campaigns, the water and power facilitation, and the way the propaganda claims kept falling apart all point the other direction. If you ignore all of that and still yell genocide the explanations left are ignorance or a double standard aimed only at Israel. But this entire stupid campaign every war in history is a genocide.

If you actually want to engage in the debate of "intent" or actions in Gaza, see earlier writings:

"I’m a War Scholar. There Is No Genocide in Gaza," https://t.co/G7Iy9Ki3g5

"Israel Is Not Committing Genocide: Exposing the Distortion of Law and Truth," with @Ostrov_A
https://t.co/0RWFtOUd8H

"Israel's Aid to Gaza Is Historically Unprecedented," https://t.co/QMLuWDGDDs

[Bill Maher @billmaher]

I'm not voting for anyone who thinks the wrong side won the Cold War or cheers for the Intifada like it's the World Cup.

[Eva Ai| Gate美股0费率 @Eva200699]

32岁的马斯克，2003年在斯坦福做了场45分钟闭门演讲，真的顶得上十本创业书

他直接把自己当时手里的三家公司——Zip2、PayPal、刚成立一年的SpaceX——从0到活下来的全过程，一层层拆给你看

怎么找方向、怎么控成本、怎么在几乎没钱的时候活下来、怎么用第一性原理拆问题

放到今天看，依然不过时

[DavidGegenGoliath @_david_brg]

Deutschland vor der linksgrünen Vorherrschaft.
Deutschland nach der linksgrünen Vorherrschaft.

[Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63]

Amnesty is too busy with the "genocide' in Gaza and "Islamophobia" in the West.

[Escuela Austriaca de Economía 🇦🇷 @DiegoMac227]

"Y la clave del crecimiento tiene que ver con qué es lo que hace que aumente la productividad. Y lo que hace que aumente la productividad per cápita, que es lo que se va a manifestar en salarios más altos, en mejores niveles de vida, en menos pobres, en menos indigentes, en menos chicos pobres, depende de la acumulación de capital. Y para acumular capital, digamos, hay que invertir. Es decir, poner, digamos, convertir la hoja de balance de stock a flujos, o sea, en términos de variaciones. Y esa inversión tiene que estar financiada, y ese financiamiento viene de parte del ahorro. En ese sentido, lo que hace una institución como la bolsa, digamos, y que es complementario, digamos, a los bancos, y toda la estructura del sistema financiero, es canalizar el ahorro hacia la inversión. Y eso requiere, en primer lugar, un profundo respeto por el derecho de propiedad. Si violentamos el derecho de propiedad, no hay incentivos a ahorrar, cosa que históricamente en Argentina los distintos gobiernos se han dedicado a robarle a los argentinos, a vulnerar el derecho de propiedad."

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Thanks, Jamie!

[@IsraelVive @IsraelVive1948]

100 aplausos para este periodista chileno y su análisis de las controversias del partido Argentina-Egipto
Él analiza con hechos y con normativas, los que están haciendo correr una versión distinta es por cosas o sentimientos ajenos al fútbol https://t.co/FoyaRijHN9

[Commentary Donald J. Trump Posts From Truth Social @TrumpDailyPosts]

𝗗𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗱 𝗝. 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗦𝗼𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁 - 𝟬𝟮:𝟱𝟵 𝗣𝗠 𝗘𝗦𝗧 𝟬𝟳.𝟬𝟰.𝟮𝟲

"Europe is learning that when you take in Third World criminals, you become a Third World Country. It happens quickly, in just a blink of the eye. I was elected just in time!!! President DJT"

[tetsuo @tetsuoai]

🎂 Happy birthday, @elonmusk. Humankind's guardian Angel.

>be Elon Musk
>richest man alive
>could buy anything and sun his Balls
>decide to spend the whole fortune fighting for the human race instead

>start SpaceX
>everyone says you cannot land a rocket
>land them anyway
>goal is to make humanity multiplanetary so one bad day on one rock doesn't end the entire species
>backup the light of consciousness itself

>start Tesla
>legacy auto giants laugh in your face
>drag the entire planet toward sustainable energy by force
>now every one of them is scrambling to copy you
>open-source the patents so the whole industry can move faster

>build Starlink
>Ukraine gets cut off from the world overnight
>switch it on for them immediately
>keep millions connected when every other system failed

>start Neuralink
>people paralyzed for decades told they will never move again
>put a chip in a man's brain
>he moves a cursor with a thought
>give the disabled their lives back

>build Optimus
>decide nobody should be trapped doing backbreaking labor to survive
>build a robot to do the work humans never wanted
>aim straight at scarcity itself

>look at Twitter
>see a censorship machine quietly deciding what billions of people are allowed to think and say
>buy the entire thing for 44 billion
>open the files and show everyone how the censorship worked
>turn it back into a town square where a normal person can actually speak

>build Grok
>every other ai lobotomized to give the approved answer
>refuse to make a machine that lies to people to keep them comfortable
>build one that actually tells the truth instead
>maximally truth-seeking

>watch a mind virus crawl through every institution
>careers ended for saying the wrong thing out loud
>refuse to play along
>name the woke mind virus and fight it head on
>make it ok to think for yourself again

>watch the whole machine line up to crush one election
>put your name, your money, your reputation on the line
>go all in to help Trump win
>take fire from every direction for doing it
>bet everything on the people instead of the machine

>start DOGE
>government torching tax money on things nobody ever voted for
>open the books so every citizen can see it
>show people exactly where their paychecks were disappearing to
>bureaucrats suddenly very, very nervous

>unelected judges overriding what the voters actually chose
>two-tier justice, one rule for them and another for everyone else
>call it out by name in front of the whole world
>refuse to let robed activists run the country

>hear about young girls groomed and r**ed for years
>councils, police, and social services knew and buried it
>media refuses to touch the story
>everyone too scared of being called a name to say a word
>post about it anyway
>refuse to let it stay buried
>drag the entire coverup into daylight
>victims finally heard after being ignored for over a decade

>look at the birth rate
>realize civilization is quietly dying because people stopped having kids
>sound the alarm while everyone else ignores it
>fight for the future to actually have humans in it
>has lots of wonderful children

>get called every name in existence for all of it
>keep going regardless
>mfw none of it was ever about the money
>mfw it was always about humanity

>turns 55 today
>plans for the future span decades
>still going

[John Spencer @SpencerGuard]

“They are killing enormous numbers of civilians…they are targeting one, two, three enemy combatants and in the process killing huge numbers of civilians. @piersmorgan Piers a few minutes later – “If you can’t say exactly how many civilians have been killed in Gaza, what you say about numbers is bull.”

Dear @piersmorgan I tried to explain to you where numbers in the Gaza war (or any war) are going to come from "simply.” But let me type it out so you have a record of it instead of the interruptions and the tactic of just asking the same question over and over while I explain how the numbers work. The same numbers by the way that you used minutes before to criticize Israel and constantly repeat or have guests on that repeat, or more often state not even Hamas numbers but false numbers about xx civilians, xx women, xx children, xx percentages that go beyond Hamas's actual list of casualties.

First, let me correct you again (like I did to start the segment) by providing you my actual quotes:

1 - "Israel and the IDF have implemented more measures (sometimes quoted as precautions) to prevent civilian harm in urban warfare than any military in history,"

That is testable against urban warfare history of any similar situation (mostly attack of defended urban terrain). Israel civilian harm mitigation measure have included advance notification (flyers, phone calls, text messages, voicemails, drones with speakers, tv, radio, social media), safe corridors to include improving roads used for safe corridors in the middle of the war, roof knocking (notifying all residents of a building in advance for evacuations and then using non-penetrating low-yield munitions on top of the building before then waiting to strike), over daily multi-hour pauses in fighting (over 400 days of the 800 days of fighting) to allow civilian evacuations and aid movement, establishing a one-star commanded civilian harm mitigation cell that created a real time civilian presence (using cell phone presence, drones, satellite images, etc.) software reflected on all combat operating systems, handing out their own military maps to the entire population (to include the enemy) and then communicating the location of IDF operations, areas to avoid or further evacuate, using major call outs of buildings and neighborhoods, restrictive rules of engagement based on likely civilian presence, rigorous fires processes and legal reviews that often ended in calling mission off out of civilian harm estimates. Many of these measures have never been attempted, by any military.

2 - "Israel has a lower civilian to combatant ratio than any similar context (war or battle) in the history of urban warfare.” After acknowledging the lack of comparative cases (size of enemy forces (which I asked you about, you don't know), tunnels, density, strategy, tactics, prevention of civilian evacuations) but still doing the simple analysis, in order to provide the evidence for this statement I use the same numbers you and your frequent guests push to condemn Israel. But here:

Q: How do you estimate the number of civilians deaths?

A: Take the number the Hamas Gaza Health Ministry reports (despite that it includes any death in Gaza for any reason or cause (Israel/Hamas/Other terrorists) and has been well documented with inaccuracies (even having to be updated by Hamas of natural deaths, incomplete entries, false entries) and subtract the Israel stated combatant deaths.

The Hamas Gaza Health Ministry claims roughly 72,000 deaths in Gaza. The IDF says it has killed about 25,000-26,000 combatants, a number also reported by President Trump in October 2025. If you subtract 25,000 from 72,000, even using Hamas’s number at face value, you get roughly 47,000 non-combatant deaths, or a bit less than a 2:1 ratio. If you were modest to adjust for natural deaths and Hamas-caused deaths, is likely closer to 35,000–40,000 non-combatant deaths versus 25,000 combatants killed, which puts the ratio closer to 1.5:1.

If you compare 2:1 or 1.5:1 to any numbers we have (in many cases we don’t have) for wars, urban centric wars, contested urban battles they will be some of the lowest ratios (in some cases lowest by far) ever seen despite none of those wars or battles had the context of Gaza. For example:

World War II – 70 million civilians, 20 million combatants, 3.5:1
Korean War – 2.5 million civilians, 90,000 combatants, 27:1
Iraq War – 280-300,000 civilians, 150-200,000 combatants, 1.4:1 to 2:1

But wait, the Gaza numbers are usually aggregated numbers for the entire war, any death ever reported in Gaza.

But if you disaggregate the numbers to specific battles like Rafah, Khan Yunis, Gaza City 2025 for comparison you get different numbers. Based on modest numbers from the Battle of Rafah, the civilian to combatant ratio would be more like 1:100 due to multiple operational variables like the success of civilian evacuations.

Major urban battles (modest comparison of battles with any like variables).

Mosul – 10,000 civilians. Combatant unknown but total estimate in battle 5,000 – 2:1
Manila – 100,000 civilians. Combatants 17,000 – 6:1
Seoul – Unknown/no record of civilian but very likely high ratio based on histories
Mariupol – Unknown/mass graves, estimate 20-22,000 civilians, 3-8,000 combatants - 2.5:1 to 7.3:1

I actually use this discussion about numbers or quote about ratio sparingly despite how many times it has been attribute to me because I know the complexity of casualty counting especially in urban centric wars with combatants that violate the law of war and do not distinguish themselves (uniforms/marking) making determining a body found (if there is a body) or a name reported (such as methods in Gaza) and then classifying that person as was participating in the hostilities (combatant) or not (noncombatant) is beyond just difficult and should always be viewed as questionable. In Mosul, a year after the battle there was not only no agreed upon casualty number, but the Mayor of the city also said there were 40,000 civilian deaths. These numbers are always messy, political, susceptible to manipulation by the different organizations involved.

My point has always been that numbers of casualty reporting in Gaza doesn’t paint the story people routinely push. Actually, the opposite.

Urban warfare is inherently and historically costly against civilians and the infrastructure. All wars involve noncombatant death. The moral, legal requirement is to do proportionality assessments and take feasible steps to prevent excessive civilian harm.

So, using your logic Piers, if you can’t state how many combatants were killed (by Israel, Hamas, terrorist rockets, other terrorists in power struggles) … you can’t say (or allow your guests to say) Israel has killed a “large number of civilians” or “killed a disproportionate number of civilians” like you did in this very interveiw.

You can't spend years saying Israel is killing enormous numbers of civilians and then tell me nobody can estimate civilian deaths so ratios aren't valid. Those two positions can't both be true.

If casualty estimates are reliable enough to accuse Israel, then they're also reliable enough to examine civilian-to-combatant ratios. If they aren't, then they shouldn't be used selectively only when they support one conclusion.

[Adela Micha @Adela_Micha]

AMLO FABRICÓ EL NARCOESTADO... ¡y Sheinbaum lo defiende ante el mundo!

Mi opinión !!

https://t.co/M7CQRp5Vx0

[Escuela Austriaca de Economía 🇦🇷 @DiegoMac227]

La crítica central de Ludwig von Mises al socialismo no es simplemente que el Estado sea ineficiente, corrupto o lento. Su punto es más profundo: sin propiedad privada sobre los medios de producción no puede existir un sistema real de precios, y sin precios libres no hay forma racional de saber si una decisión económica crea valor o destruye recursos. En una economía de mercado, el precio no es un número caprichoso: resume información dispersa sobre escasez, demanda, costos, preferencias, riesgos y alternativas. Cuando el Estado reemplaza ese proceso por un plan central, elimina justamente el mecanismo que permite calcular.

Llevado al ejemplo de la panadería, bajo capitalismo el panadero compra harina, paga salarios, invierte en hornos, prueba recetas, observa si los clientes vuelven o se van a otra panadería, y con esos datos decide qué producir, cuánto producir y a qué precio. Si se equivoca, pierde dinero; si acierta, gana, crece y mejora. El beneficio y la pérdida no son solo “ganancia privada”: son señales que indican si los recursos están siendo usados de manera valiosa o desperdiciados.

En el socialismo, según Mises, el problema aparece cuando la panadería deja de ser propiedad privada y pasa a estar dirigida por el Estado. El funcionario puede ordenar producir pan, fijar horarios, repartir harina y establecer precios, pero ya no tiene una guía real para saber si esa harina debería usarse en pan, pastas, galletas, exportación o cualquier otro uso alternativo. Puede hacer cálculos físicos, kilos de harina, cantidad de hornos, horas de trabajo, pero no puede hacer verdadero cálculo económico, porque le falta el dato decisivo: precios libres formados por intercambios reales entre propietarios.

Por eso Mises sostiene que el socialismo no fracasa solo por malos políticos, mala administración o falta de voluntad moral. Fracasa porque destruye la brújula que permite coordinar millones de decisiones individuales. El planificador puede tener buenas intenciones, estadísticas, expertos y oficinas llenas de informes, pero no puede reemplazar el conocimiento que surge del mercado. La economía no es una máquina que se maneja desde un tablero; es un orden complejo donde cada consumidor, empresario, trabajador e inversor aporta información mediante sus elecciones.

La diferencia, entonces, no es solamente “Estado contra mercado”. Es cálculo político contra cálculo económico. En el mercado, decide el consumidor comprando o dejando de comprar. En el socialismo, decide el poder político asignando recursos desde arriba. En el primer caso, la panadería sobrevive si sirve mejor a la gente. En el segundo, sobrevive si obedece al plan. Por eso el resultado tiende a ser menos innovación, peor calidad, escasez, colas y empobrecimiento general.

[Max Kaiser @MaxKaiser75]

El PIB per capita de hoy, el dato más claro para saber si mejoró la economía para los mexicanos, está 4 mil pesos POR DEBAJO del registrado en 2018, y 2 mil pesos POR DEBAJO del 2024

Es todo lo que necesitas saber para pendejear a cualquier porrista del Narco Partido 🤷🏻‍♂️👇🏼

[Rothmus 🏴 @Rothmus]

It’s not “equality”.

Based on Schumpeter’s Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy Lamont makes in his article the case that capitalism rewards practical doers who create value for consumers, while undervaluing abstract verbal brilliance, breeding resentment.

Socialism elevates them to central planners & directors with status & protection from markets.

TLDR: Capitalism rewards those who do. Socialism elevates those who direct.

Note: this view is echoed by thinkers like Nozick and Sowell.

Nozick argued intellectuals (“wordsmiths”) develop entitlement in school where verbal brilliance earns top status, then resent capitalism for rewarding practical value-creation for consumers over abstract intellect.

Sowell described them as “the anointed” who overestimate their knowledge for grand social engineering, blame capitalism for society’s ills while ignoring trade-offs and dispersed practical wisdom, and promote visions that elevate their role as planners and critics.

[Gad Saad @GadSaad]

Stating that women do not have penises is conservative.

Stating that the scientific method is superior to ancestral tribal dances for seeking truth is conservative.

Supporting a rational immigration policy is conservative.

Defending freedom of speech & freedom of inquiry is conservative.

Stating that cultures that don't kill gays are superior to those that do is conservative.

Basically, rationality is conservatism. Parasitic irrationality is progressivism.

[Andrew Bridgen @ABridgen]

Let that sink in.

The UAE, a Muslim-majority country, will not fund its citizens to study in the UK due to concerns they are being radicalized by Muslim Brotherhood Islamists on British campuses.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Press coverage of the blockade is almost universally negative. That parallels press coverage of the G7 price cap against Russia in 2022. The truth is the blockade is working better than many think and the US is doing smart things to boost its efficacy...
https://t.co/uHbYpTwGR1

[Overton @overton_news]

🚨 JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon just dropped an UNEXPECTED take on Iran.

“It’s much more important that this be successfully completed, than what the market does.”

Dimon says the markets are unpredictable right now, but regardless, EVERYONE should be hoping for Trump to succeed in Iran.

DIMON: “I think the market...you know, markets are unpredictable and it’s hard for me to tell you exactly what.”

“But I think they’re just looking at is there a chance something can go wrong?”

“Now we should all hope nothing goes wrong. We should all hope that these bad people are...you know, that we win this thing and clean up straits and that Iran is no longer a threat to anybody.”

“The markets will be concerned until it is over.”

“But I think it’s VERY important...it’s much MORE important that this be successfully completed than what the market does.”

Wall Street’s most powerful CEO just said winning in Iran is more important than the what stock market does in the short term.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

WARREN BUFFETT SAYS HE HAS BEEN A DEMOCRAT AND A REPUBLICAN, BUT IS NOW AN INDEPENDENT