Mark Penn

CEO, Stagwell Inc., Past EVP Strategy @Microsoft. Past CEO of @B_M and @PSBresearch, past advisor to President Clinton and Hillary Clinton, author Microtrends

[Mark Penn @Mark_Penn]

Tariff Turnaround

Perhaps the easiest way for a turn around in public opinion would be a 6 month slashing of virtually all tariffs. A temporary pause in view of inflation and Mideast tensions. And add that retailers must turn the benefits over to consumers.

Stock market would soar. Prices ease. Interest rates could come down. Public opinion on inflation would change as companies offered tariff rebates. And room created to deal with the Mideast.

[Mark Penn @Mark_Penn]

Iran Lobby

What is it with the Iran appeasement group centered in the DSA and spreading through the Democratic Party and even some Republicans?

This regime has waged a terror war against Israel, the United States and in Europe since 1979, killed a thousand or more of our troops in Iraq, funded terrorism throughout the world including building up the proxy networks of Hamas and Hezbollah, is seeking nuclear weapons, rules its own people against their will and kills them at the slightest protest. They even tried to assassinate the President.

It’s like the 1930s all over again in which Stanley Baldwin and Neville Chamberlain first let Germany rearm, then gave them Austria and then part of Czechoslovakia. Little by little they believed they bought peace in our time until Germany could not be stopped and took Poland. And the British public loved it, nearly turning Churchill out of office before the war.

And Americans hate Iran — by 8/65 or so it is the most despised country by far. And yet it seems this movement is happy to endanger Israel as appeasement as though Iran has any plan at stopping at regional and even global domination of an autocratic theocracy. Iran tells you their policy of going after big Satan and while we have new Congressmen now who won’t even condemn them, they are sending teams to disrupt our society and bomb our bases and ignite antisemitism.

So we all want lower gas prices but it’s clear that this group internally is following the appeasement playbook to the letter, calling for abandoning virtually any and all efforts at stopping Iran — from letting them rearm without real limits to summarily ending even the threat of military force and now putting our own military leadership on trial. In their wildest dreams the Iranian despots could not have imagined a better outcome for them.

History can and will repeat itself. Last time about 85 million died before they were stopped compared to what could have happened if Germany had never been allowed to rearm. And if you don’t believe it can happen, the failure to deter Russia when they first invaded Ukraine under Obama has now cost about 600,000 lives.

[Mark Penn @Mark_Penn]

Impeachment Mania

No evidence, no hearings. And Democrats think it’s a free vote that scores political points.

The Secretary of War is charged with no real high crimes — it’s just a political swipe by a disgruntled and disaffected congressman and the Democrats are all too happy to go along for the ride.

The more educated we get, the stupider our politics and politicians become. Impeachment has gone from a serious matter reserved for real issues to a circus. As detailed in profiles in courage, one senator from Kansas saved the president and restored impeachment to its proper status. (Ironically over who can fire the Secretary of War)

If you want to censure someone or complain, fine, pass such a resolution. But enough Democrats should join with Republicans to return impeachment to its proper position. After all, what goes around comes around.

[Mark Penn @Mark_Penn]

Stop the War?

Time to end the draft and bring our soldiers home from Iran where they are dying by the hundreds in trench warfare and house-to-house combat.

Oh wait. We are not doing any of that. The “war” is a naval blockade to get the Iranians to give up nuclear and terrorist ambitions. At its peak we also had an air campaign directed at military and leadership targets but we stopped it in exchange for fake promises.

Mostly we have been engaged in endless negotiations and memorandums of understandings while the Iranians regained their footing and kept their resolve to kill big and little Satan. The Iranians are so confident now in their success they are not negotiating at all. They killed tens of thousands of their own people to keep their iron grip. They are laughing at America that can’t take a temporary $1 increase in gasoline prices to get rid of the world’s top sponsor of terrorism and instability.

The President should set out his non negotiable demands of no nukes, no strait, no terrorist funding, no long range ballistics, and then resume bombing if they don’t agree until they do.

And democrats want to lower the cost of gasoline? Who could possibly believe that after they spent 20 years choking off the supply of domestic energy over climate change. Check the price of gas in California.

So the current fashion is to end the war with nothing, cut off Israel, and lower the cost of gasoline. That’s a strategy? Enable nuclear and other terrorism that will ultimately swallow the region, travel to Europe and then here? Or stop it now that you can when they are weak and have alienated all the gulf states and go for real stability. That’s an actual strategy that will pay us back for decades to come.

And as to affordability — suspend the gas tax, drop interest rates, suspend tariffs, provide temporary tax breaks for energy use, reform the student loan program and push for big affordable housing programs beyond the recent bill.

As to “war,” finish the job while we can. And explain why to the American people.

[Mark Penn @Mark_Penn]

More Coming In

Definitely a blue wave that undid much of 2024 shifts as Blacks, Hispanics and Young Men headed back to the Democrats pretty much across the country. A 10 to 13 point shift.

This was a record expenditure and it’s clear the Democrats got their messages through and went on offense against the administration on inflation, healthcare, corruption, ICE. They had no actual programs but the negative frame got through. The Republicans had it all but those in Congress had no real agenda of any substance that people could fight for or back.

The Republicans then largely played defense and had no offense. They stuck largely to 2024 rhetoric and with the border closed it did not answer the questions and issues people had in 2026 as opposed to 2024.

The President and VP led a big turnout operation and they got the vote out but this was a swing election and we learned these new groups were experimenting with the Republicans in 2024, not adopting them for life.

And sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, meaning people had high expectations in 2024 and in 2026 saw a divided country, and no matter how good the economic numbers may look compared to 2022, they felt unhappy due to the cumulative effects of inflation and saw tariffs and other policies as working against them and not for them. The dems won the message war and got their voters back…for now.

[Mark Penn @Mark_Penn]

Preliminary take

Polls were right and indicated this was coming.

Hispanic voters were the key swing vote in 2024 and they swung back.

Working class voters felt pinched by inflation and blamed Trump for it rather than Biden, primarily because of tariffs.

There was about a 10 point national swing from the Trump high watermark which is 5 per cent who changed their mind. But that makes a huge difference in outcomes.

Message and organization beats money.

Thus will have little bearing on the presidential race but it perfectly identifies who the fight is about and those who are the swing voters the winner

[Mark Dubowitz @mdubowitz]

China, Russia. Iran, North Korea, Qatar, Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood are waging cognitive warfare against the U.S. and our allies. Radical leftists and the Reich right serve as enablers within our own ranks.

We are under attack by the deliberate weaponization of information and psychological tactics to manipulate thought, distort beliefs, and influence decisions.

[Mark Penn @Mark_Penn]

270 us election

Hey if you have trouble waiting for all the returns, try playing 270 US election found on the Apple or Android play stores to kill some time and sharpen your skills.

It’s my game to let everyone act as campaign manager so now is the time to have fun.

Download it

[Mark Penn @Mark_Penn]

Despicable Betrayal?

Haley Stevens made a decision against her party because she cares about issues and opposing extremism in her party. It surely ends her political career and you could agree with it or disagree with it but it was a position of conscience.

So what does big tent Chuck Schumer do? Call the Stevens decision a “despicable betrayal” and even go so far as to throw an accusation of Islamophobia at her.

But to most people the “despicable betrayal” has been by Schumer (who has deeply negative national ratings) year after year welcoming people who are anti-American at their core into the Democratic Party and then protecting them and promoting them in an attempt to keep his job and become majority leader. So I guess what he is creating a whirlwind about this time is that he might not get the job he wants and he blames Stevens rather than the embrace of extremism as the potential cause. It’s up to the voters now.

[Mark Penn @Mark_Penn]

Profiles in Courage

John F. Kennedy’s book profiles in courage is essentially about political figures who at critical moments stood up against their party. Their political futures were largely over each time but their decisions generally stood the test of time.

Haley Stevens made such a decision today. She will be pelted and pilloried by her party members even as Nancy Pelosi expressed disagreement with El Sayed two days ago but then affirmed she is on the team the next day.

Stevens is not engaged in some personal war as the group talking points would have you believe. She is taking the position that the tent of the Democratic Party should not be big enough for people with the views of El Sayed. A lot of people feel that way but only a few will stand up to their party at personal expense to say so. The moderates and Chuck Schumer caved to the left long ago and they have terrible ratings.

I think the momentum was going against El Sayed before this development — at this time we will just have to wait for the verdict of the voters as each side has made their case and the question is how many of her voters, if any, will cross over.

[Mark Penn @Mark_Penn]

Michigan Momentum

With Nancy Pelosi and Haley Stevens backing off of El Sayed in various ways (while then having to reaffirm they have not left the team) along with him refusing to condemn the pac antisemitic ad blaming Jews for banana prices and then putting Tucker Carlson in his own ad, this all suggests that despite solid public polls for El Sayed, momentum is shifting to Rogers.

Putting Carlson in an ad just has to be a signal that Sayed’s goal is to rally all antisemites, and there could be almost no greater affront to Democratic women who supported Stevens. And Steven’s fiancé going out doesn’t happen without an ok or he would not still be a fiancé. Turnout will be key but these are signs of a significant split among Dems with some saying that El Sayed is a bridge too far.

[Mark Penn @Mark_Penn]

Baked Alaska

The story of the fake candidacy seems pretty straightforward. The Peltola camp with outreach to the DSCC recruited a fake candidate to confuse voters into voting for the wrong candidate in order to win the election.

The candidate has no campaign and has disappeared.

This is not election high-jinx but outright fraud on the voters. It cannot stand and no one who okayed this should be elected.

And ranked-choice voting needs to be repealed in Alaska and everywhere else. It is a flawed social science experiment and a testament to how do-gooders can be fooled into backing something so easily manipulated. If you are concerned about candidates below 50 or 40 per cent getting elected then add runoffs - those give people a choice that’s clear and gets explored in an election setting.

Yes, you can complain about others and what they deserve, but it does not excuse this effort now caught red-handed as a blatant attempt to normalize fraud rather than win an election by convincing the voters.

[Mark Penn @Mark_Penn]

What did the candidate know

And when did she know it.

That’s the question about Alaska and the democratic recruitment of a fake candidate with the same name as Dan Sullivan.

This is an affront to the cry of being on the side of democracy.

[Mark Penn @Mark_Penn]

Foreign Elections

The minute you lose an election in Brazil to the left the out of control Supreme Court tries to arrest you but Marco Rubio was ahead of the game and got Bolsonaro out of the country.

In Israel the exit polls almost always exaggerate the left leaning or opposition vote in the early stages. In the actual count now Netanyahu is 4 to 6 seats ahead and will likely get the first chance to form a government. He will either get there or likely new elections.

Big Arab turn out underscoring the complete inversion that has been sold to college students as Arabs are only free to vote in Israel. They will have a proportionate amount in the Knesset.
Perhaps they will be part of the government, perhaps not but Eisenkot jumped the gun declaring victory when Netanyahu looks stronger and stronger as the actual count goes on. Stay tuned. And no one will be arrested here after the count is done.

[Mark Penn @Mark_Penn]

Election Shenanigans

Two companies admitted they faked their polls as an “experiment.” Yup an experiment in fraud — they should face indictment.

Dan Sullivan is running a campaign in Alaska to siphon votes from the real Dan Sullivan in Alaska. He should be thrown off the ballot.

A pac in Michigan is running a clearly antisemitic for El Sayed and the Democrats. It should be universally condemned.

President Obama seems to have forgotten his own speeches and words when he decried negative campaigns and said “There's not a liberal America and a conservative America — there's the United States of America." Given his move to the far left and embrace of negative campaigning you have to wonder if he ever believed any of that stuff that captivated the country.

[Mark Penn @Mark_Penn]

Fake Polls II

It seems if you poll left it’s easy to get into the NYT poll aggregator and yet again these polls showing big leftward swings were entirely fabricated.Wedgwood polling turned out to be an “experiment” in issuing fake polling results. It’s more an experiment in fraud. And in helping certain candidates to raise money. This is no experiment but calculated fraud.

Real Clear Politics and Polling once again did not fall for the ruse because Wedgwood did not meet their screening process.

You gotta wonder now how much else in politics today is faked given two “polling” firms were nothing but empty fronts.

[Mark Penn @Mark_Penn]

Can France Happen here

I hope not.

It looks like whatever started out there about students has been highjacked by the left and the red-green alliance to generate uncontrolled looting, destruction of public property and houses of worship. The write up by the WSJ front page on what’s happening is laughable.

The left is growing in strength here and so is the red-green alliance and add a toxic brew of universities that have abandoned their role of teaching values and are producing America haters and we have to be careful.

The key will be the Michigan race and whether sanity prevails and the voters reject El Sayed and begin to turn back this new strain of extremism or whether the Democratic Party will embrace and extend it. Former President Obama seems to be leading the charge to the far left and helping grow it — giving a lie to how he presented himself as a centrist, but we kind of knew that by now anyway.

[Mark Penn @Mark_Penn]

Houthis

There is video now of the missile hitting the Riyadh airport as hundreds of people are in the terminal and the Houthis have claimed responsibility.

This is a unique act of terrorism whose monstrosity should not be downplayed. This was not a military target. The Saudis are not hiding missiles in the airport — this is a deliberate attempt to kill hundreds of people with missiles directed at an open civilian airport. No warning. No flyers. This is terrorism at its bleakest.
And from an Iranian proxy.

Clearly they think the Saudis will retreat rather than face more of such acts. This would be a major setback in the war on terror if there is no coordinated response to this. Maybe we are waiting for the midterms to be over but this is bold aggression targeting civilians with terror. They will either win and take more territory or be set back if there is a coordinated response but the Houthis are on the move here and willing to send missiles into open airports — missiles that the Saudis cannot at present reliably stop.

[Mark Penn @Mark_Penn]

Saudi Attacks

The Houthis are carrying out wholesale attacks on the civilian Saudi airport, killing 13 including an American, and injuring hundreds.

Israel, Saudi, UAE — these terrorist movements want them all. They don’t care which. And Iran and the Houthis figure the President is stuck until the midterms — unable to hit them.

But they have gone too far and the US and the Gulf states have no choice but to respond forcefully. Oh yes, and there are laughably some French troops there who are more needed in their home country right now.

Houthis are just proxies for Iran and so this pot is about to boil over as both think they can get away with murder right now.

Maybe they can for a few days and maybe the President had planned on waiting until the midterms but attacks on civilian airports are not going to go unanswered.