🚨 NVIDIA $NVDA earnings TOMORROW AMC 4:20 PM ET, earnings call 5:00 PM ET
Three scenarios:
Miss/Weak guide:
~$89.7B (-2.9%) Revenue below consensus
~$1.99 (-5.2%) EPS below consensus
With the stock tipping down to ~ $193.20 (-8.9%) from current price
Base Beat:
~$93.3B (+1.0%) Revenue above consensus
~$2.13B (+1.4%) EPS above consensus
With the stock climbing to ~$217.40 (+2.5%) from current price
Strong Beat:
~$97.2B (+5.2%) Revenue above consensus
~$2.27 (+8.1%) EPS above consensus
And a target price of ~$230.14 (+8.6%) from current price.
🚨BREAKING: $BMO EPS EXPECTATIONS BEAT
$BMO beat EPS expectations by 5.9%, while credit-loss provision fell 9.4% YOY
All while consumer expectations just fell 7.8% to recession-warning territory.
🚨BREAKING: U.S. CONSUMERS ARE TURNING BEARISH AHEAD OF CORE PCE AND JACKSON HOLE.
U.S. Consumer confidence fell 0.9% in August, but Expectations index dropped 7.8% to 68.2.
Consumers are becoming materially more pessimistic regarding the next six months.
🚨NVIDIA $NVDA EARNINGS REPORT
$NVDA vs MAG7 Market Capitalization since each company's inception.
Options are pricing approximately a ±6% to ±6.3% move around earnings, below $NVDA's average 8.3% the past decade.
Don't just watch whether Nvidia beats. Watch how much it beats and what it guides.
🚨JUST IN: Economic D-day plus one
President Trump threatened to economically isolate Iran and punish foreign "enablers," with China the key risk given its role as the largest buyer of Iranian crude.
$WTI has fallen to $82, down 5.7%. This tells us the market does not currently believe the sanctions will materially remove barrels from supply.
The real catalyst is enforcement.
If major Chinese refiners, banks or payment networks are targeted:
$WTI / $BZ increases
$USDCNH increases (CNH weakens)
$XAUUSD Increases
Energy sector increases
Treasury & Yields increase on inflation risk
$QQQ / growth stocks face downside pressure.
🚨NVIDIA $NVDA EARNINGS REPORT
$NVDA vs MAG7 Market Capitalization since each company's inception.
Options are pricing approximately a ±6% to ±6.3% move around earnings, below $NVDA's average 8.3% the past decade.
Don't just watch whether Nvidia beats. Watch how much it beats and what it guides.
🚨JUST IN: PRESIDENT TRUMP DISCLOSED BUYING $1M-$5M OF $V ON JUNE 18th.
40 days later, Visa reported:
EPS: $3.32 vs. $3.23 expected, +$0.09 beat (+2.8%). Surprise of +3.1%.
Revenue: $11.63B vs $11.40B expected, +$230M beat (+2.0%). Surprise of 1.9%.
🚨JUST IN: $USDCAD is strengthening amidst 50% tariff announcement on Canada.
CAD is now weakening against the U.S. dollar intra-day.
This matters as markets digest:
50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods
Canadian retaliatory measures
Higher risk to exports, manufacturing and investment
Potential downside pressure on Canadian growth
If USD/CAD continues holding above 1.38, pushing through 1.386-1.39, it could be the first sign FX markets are beginning to price the economic cost of the trade war.
🚨JUST IN: $NVDA shares drop for the 7th day in a row.
Retail sentiment is getting crushed as the selloff accelerates, down ~7.5% over the streak. Longest losing streak since September 2022.
Historically, after the previous 7-day losing streak, stock rebounded 1.9% next day and 6.8% over 3 sessions, but -10% by Sept. 30th.
But Institutional positioning is getting interesting.
Notable options flow is leaning heavily toward calls ahead of Wednesday's earnings while Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish.
Are funds starting to scale into the weakness, or weaking for earnings capitulation?
‼️INFLATION: $4M is the new $1M
Back in 1990, for 5% you were getting $50,000, worth ~45% of a house.
Today, $4M at 5% is $200,000, which is ~48% of a median price U.S. home.
Same 5% yield, 4x the capital, and similar purchasing power against housing.
What "Wealthy" looks like, has been completely transformed.
NVIDIA $NVDA vs Coca-Cola $KO since 2025.
$KO has now outperformed $NVDA YTD with roughly a +7% difference the past year.
$KO has a $2.02T market cap, with a forward PE of 26.77 and $259.36B in revenue, and a total of 26.45% return.
$NVDA over double $KO's market cap of $5.09T, with a forward PE of 21.39 and $253.49B in revenue, and a 16.27% return past year.
🚨Amidst the U.S. Canada Trade War:
Since 1997, Canada's performance relative to the U.S. has fallen roughly:
14% in real GDP per capita.
10% in real GNI per capita.
25% in labor productivity.
Now the U.S. has imposed tariffs on roughly $20B of Canadian goods, with Canada preparing for retaliatory dollar for dollar match.
Market Implications:
Bullish for $USDCAD
Bearish Pressure on $EWC
Autos, steel, rails, and industrials face margin risk
A chart already trending lower, now imposed with a 50% tariff.
🚨JUST IN: NANCY PELOSI, $BE and $INTC
Pelosi purchased 50 call options on Intel $INTC with a $50 strike price, and an expiration date of June 17th.
Additional 10,000 shares of $INTC were purchased on July 24th worth between $550,001 and $1M.
She also disclosed purchases of 15,000 shares of $BE, and 100 call options with $100 strike price of an expiration date of June 17th, 2027.